Here in Houston, I see the fragility of fossil fuels. I wish our movement talked about it more. But there's a perverse fun in having a devil to blame. It gets us off the hook of having to do our best. But, when scared, blaming and shaming a devil is too easy. Besides, it's what our opponents do. I call it fundamentalism. Environmental fundamentalists fight with fundamentalists on the other side and nobody learns from the other party. I ask you to not demonize the fossil companies.
No longer are fossil fuels Houston's #1 employer. Instead Texas Medical Center is now #1. Fossil fuel companies have had layoffs and more layoffs.
Fossil fuels struggle for capital. They pay more than clean energy, I think it's twice as much, to get capital now. So their annual capital expenditures have fallen since 2012 or so to half that. They have to do a difficult dance to get by on less capital and yet maintain profits and share price. My source is RMI's Cleantech Revolution.
Some in Houston's Chamber of Commerce brag that Houston is the renewable energy capital of the US.
Just because fossil fuels have been stagnant for perhaps five years, they still are proud and remember when they dominated. Yes, fossils made America great but that's history. It will never make us great again. Cheaper energy trumps them. Cleaner, cheaper and better energy trumps fossil fuels.
Our enemy is the story that fossil fuels were the source of America's greatness. And that they will rise again.
You know what Vlad says, if I can't have oil powered energy, the US won't have it either...
I was so glad to see what you said about green energy. Back before 2008, when I last had a job, my 401 k was strictly fixed income or green funds. No, I didn't make much money, but I never lost a dime on fixed income funds. And although I didn't win on green funds, I am so glad to see that green funds are killing it now. As Dylan said, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. And actually, ever since, I've advised people with 401 ks to buy green funds. I hope they listened. My house has been solar powered since 2016 and my son has driven a Bolt since 2015. Think of what he's saving and has saved, here in the Bay Area where gas is running about $5.89 a gallon, and fueling his car off the roof.
I admit Russia is doing little to address climate change, though they are not the ones who have successfully smeared renewables allegedly being part of plot by 'globalists', that would be US based interests in oil and animal ag, that got a climate denier into the White House. Russia are not the ones who consistently encouraging dependence on fossil fuels in US vassals such as the UK, to keep them depend on US energy hegemony.
I`m missing the much neglected storable green hydrogen element in the energy mix, plus tidal and wave energy. There's plenty of natural energy available without having to release carbon for the ever decreasing sinks to absorb..
My read is that green hydrogen, while viable, is somewhat eclipsed by the insanely fast progress in battery storage - stuff like Form Energy's multi-day iron-air battery could fill a lot of that long-term storage need without needing economically less-efficient electrolyzers
The oil refinery in Russia also matters to many Global South countries, especially now that American illegal attack on Iran has led to a reduction in oil flow from the Middle East.
BTW, all this could have been avoided if the Americans had not overthrown a democratically elected government in Ukraine and installed the present quasi-Fascist regime. As an American you ought to be more modest about being judgemental considering how much suffering your elected representatives have caused in Cuba, Gaza, Palestine and elsewhere.
Thanks for weighing in! The West was not always this bad although admittedly the CIA had a long history of intervening on Latin America and I understand instigated the Indonesian military coup against the Soekarno government that led to a massacre of many ethnic Chinese Indonesians. But there was a time when so many of us admired and looked up to the West. So I feel it is not us who are fundamentally anti-West but the West has changed. Australia used to lead the fight against Apartheid in South Australia but now the Australian government sits on its hands while a genocide goes on in Gaza. There are so few Western governments that have spoken up for the Palestinians. (Thank you Ireland, Spain.) What happened to the West? If people in the West could be more modest about their own moral position, genuine dialogue could be possible. But the loss of great or superpower status is very hard to bear and it may take a few generations. I do hope the West returns to its true values, get rid of the CIA and Five Eyes, and work with China to make the world a better place for future generations of humanity.
This is customary Chinese defensiveness and *tu quoque* deflection of the post's topic. Diverse open sources conclude the US did not "overthrow a democratically elected government in Ukraine and install the present quasi-Fascist regime." If this is what the Chinese government is telling you, you need to diversify your information sources. It's a highly distorted view of the 2014 Euromaidan revolution, largely pushed by the Kremlin to delegitimize Ukraine's sovereignty, but happily accepted by aggrieved adversaries of the US anywhere. We have much to account for, but the Euromaidan revolution isn't one of them.
I’m not from China. BTW, China is sympathetic to both the Ukrainian and Russian people and if China had its way, the conflict would have been avoided or ended by now. But the Americans and British told the Ukrainians to renege on the Istanbul agreement because American politicians view Ukrainians as a tool to weaken Russia.
As for Maidan, I think Jeffrey Sachs has explained this very well. He actually witnessed the Maidan coup when it happened. Do check out Sachs writing on this.
True, Americans have a lot to apologise for. But still shamelessly judging others.
Sorry, I don't believe you. The photos on your substack are taken in China. And your comments are suspiciously similar to those of a nationalistic Chinese patriot. Your privilege, but they're not persuasive to residents of other nations.
"Covered by Western media as a people's revolution, it was in fact a coup d'état scripted and staged by nationalist groups and the U.S. State Department".
"Scripted and staged by 'nationalist' groups and the U.S. State Department":
Not saying those groups were all saints, but they weren't all neo-Nazis either. And Ukrainian nationals trying to hold off subjugation by a determined, aggressive neighbor would be 'nationalist', whatever else they were. Nor was the US the only foreign party with a hand in, as the EU had as much at stake if not more! And then there's Ukraine's clear enemy, Putin's Russia, trying to rebuild the Soviet empire by forcibly annexing its neighbors again!
Jo, why do you think a youtube video is the 'best' run down of the history of Ukraine? Why do you trust the presenters? How do you know how much of what they're saying is Russian *dezinformatsiya* they've accepted as truth? What privileged access to verifiable information do they have that the Guardian, for example, which reported on US, EU, and Russian involvement in the election and overthrow of Yanukovych, does not?
Once again: the US has much to answer for, but to the best of my knowledge *or* yours, Yanukovych was overthrown by a genuine popular uprising against an elected but corrupt and traitorous leader, who fled to their biggest enemy. To claim the US 'scripted and staged' it is to deny the whole nation of Ukraine agency!
No worries. Up to you I am just telling you. Anyway, I am also a Christian and English is my first language. I am trying to learn Chinese. If you look at my Substack posts, you will see English and Chinese versions of my short essays. The Chinese version will I am sure sound strange to a native Chinese speaker.
You know. You should hold to your presuppositions less tightly. Also beware of “correspondence bias”, being a tendency to infer stable traits from a small sample of a person’s behaviour.
Do check out my Substack journal in The Possibility of Democratic Choice if you are curious about my world view.
A Christian? You should hold on to your presuppositions less tightly too, for what is God but a presupposition of magical thinkers? And while correspondence bias is deceptive, I've simply noticed too many Chinese nationalists on the blogosphere, determined to blame the US unto the seventh generation for every evil in the world, while boasting of their own national virtue. Believe it or not, you sound very like them!
As a self-aware patriotic American, I'm afraid I can't wish you well, even if I'm disappointed in a slim majority of my fellow citizens for electing our current kakistocracy. I can't stop you from propagating your biased opinions here, of course, that's up to Dr. McKibben. Frankly, I hope he doesn't moderate cognitively motivated commenters like you out. I've got plenty of time 8^D!
Let us reflect on the example of Christ. Who not counting equality with God as something to be grasped, rather he made himself nothing by taking the very nature of a servant, becoming obesity to death, even death on the cross. (Philippians 2:5-8). One of my favourite passages of the Bible.
Here's how the BBC 'debunk' their own reporting about the existence of organised neonazis, such as the Azov; who still openly where Nazi insignia, running the government out in 2014 and bombing ethnic Russians for 8 years after.
Fine, write off the BBC. Why trust anyone else more? Where's your skepticism, Jo?
AFAICT, the Azov neonazis are homegrown Ukrainian nationalists. In 2018 the US designated them terrorists under the Leahy Law, prohibiting US arms makers from supplying them with weapons until Trump took office the 2nd time. Trump, of course, has no use for the US Constitution. But he isn't America, despite what he'd like you to believe!
Oh dear. There is considerable evidence of US involvement in the coup and the US and McCain are super proud that they're in it with Ukraine- here being thanked by Ukrainians for stirring them up before hand in 2013. Yanukovych was as democratically elected as anyone in the US is. And I don't know what else you'd call openly neonazis battalions, being funded and trained by the UK and US, shelling the Russian speakers in the Donbas for 8 years (as reported in the MSM) that Zelensky can do nothing about.
These sources are not the Kremlin- they're the Daily Mail and Youtube, it's just they've fallen into the memory hole.
"There is considerable evidence of US involvement in the coup".
That's not the same as "it's all the US's fault", Jo. There's considerable evidence of Russian involvement too. Neither it, nor the US, nor the EU have won anything like all they each want. Now the Ukraine is fighting a Russian invasion, with atrocities on both sides. Do you think Americans and Europeans should not support Ukrainian nationhood? Shouldn't Russia just quit trying to rebuild the Soviet empire for the narcissistic pride of its virtual dictator?
Why are we not working to create a national movement AND a National March for our climate, green energy and the reduction of fossil fuels. The evidence of climate change is dramatic now in almost all of the aspects of our lives and in so many parts of the world. This is a great time to show up with feet on the ground in a massive demonstration of concern. All the important changes in our US history have happened when people showed up en masse.
Go for it. But I beg to argue with you on "all the important changes happened when people showed up en masse". There are 398 ways to make change and much of it is gradual, like a tree growing. Besides my mobility is limited. I'm using a walker now. Will you join me in helping finance 2 electric cars for African taxi drivers? https://www.kiva.org/lend/3192962
I heard an interview with Don Gillmor about his book "On Oil." He tells about subsidies to fossil fuels and none to renewables, from Trump and others as well. But even so, renewables are winning, for economic reasons.
Yes, do you know any trump supporters? The only one I know is my sister and she refuses to discuss politics. Here's something to show your trump loving friends. I didn't know Trump was stealing more than any President ever. This has been an education for me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaQ_95hPhu4
I'm here in Oil Country and the oil lovers are in the minority now but not enough folks are talking about how oil is now becoming as has been. The oil people, many of them, know it, but won't talk about it. My people don't all believe oil is now becoming obsolete. So good work is our realizing that they aren't ten feet tall and covered with black hair. Instead they are a dying industry.
While they aren't 'ten feet tall and covered with black hair', they're not dead yet. They can still obstruct collectively decarbonizing the US economy. But maybe not forever.
Nat Bullard said the independent oil companies are putting a bigger % of their cash into capital expenditures than the majors. About 50% more. He said it in slide #169 of 2026 report https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations They are the one investing more in new fossil infrastructure.
Others say that Exxon is notoriously closed minded on the topic of transition. So then the independents would be even more closed minded. To an Exxon worker, it's just a job but to an independent entrepreneur it's more personal. Their Achilles heel would be financing. And failing profits due to declining demand. We can explain to them that oil is now in an era of decline and risk.
Bill asserts: "Look, world leaders should be moving quickly to clean energy because it’s the one scaleable weapon in the war against climate change."
But...the basic problem remains. It can't be done without using vehicles than run on buried carbon...gasolines and renewable biofuels. What that obviously means is finishing the energy transition will be adding CO2 to the atmosphere with little or none being taken out by lowering emissions.. And there is no viable way around it. The countries with the most oil reserves will do the best. Those committed to reducing emissions will be leaving their fossil fuel reserves in the ground. Not a very smart idea.
Over 70% of global oil production is for gasoline and diesel. Electric vehicles are quickly taking over vehicles sales - outside the US. The US is a laggard because of Trump's policies and the average intelligence of Americans and their exceptionally high level of selfishness. China's car sales are now over 65% EVs. This is up from 50% 6 months ago. Gas car sales are crashing there. Europe, too. Norway is already at 100% EV sales, and the Netherlands is at 90%. Most of Europe is over 50% EV sales.
The way to beat the oil companies is to stop buying new gas cars. Crash sales of internal combustion vehicles everywhere. Let's remove over 70% of oil industry demand. We can do this inside of 20 years.
And save money in the process. I'm always amazed when people complain that EV's are too expensive. The money you save not buying gas is only part of it. Electric vehicles have so few moving parts that our Kona, bought the end of 2019, has needed nothing fixed but the small battery that operates the radio, interior lights, dashboard display....
Imagine it: nearly 6 years without any need for repair....and everything still going strong.
For many people EVs are too expensive. If you drive enough miles you can save money in the long run but for many people a car costing well over $30,000 is too expensive. Even a gasoline-powered car costing a little less than $25,000 is to much. For those people used cars are the only real option. That can work but there is no three-year warranty and older vehicles generally require more repairs. If the U.S. let inexpensive Chinese EVs in that would solve a lot of problems. But so far the the U.S. government has opted to protect car companies making cars in this country.
True, but for many others, they are just hide bound and scared of new technology. There's a lot of BS out there from old fossil fools about range, heaviness, yatta yatta..........and most North Americans are more timid than they admit.
Which is why I always share how good a deal our Kona has been. One more story.....on a wilderness road, we must have driven over a stone, because our battery complained. When we took it in to the dealer, they found one cell was malfunctioning.
That is when we discovered we had a 10 year warranty on the battery........no extra charge. They brought in a new battery and installed it free of charge. So now our 2020 Kona has a 2023 battery, good to 2033........
EV's are fabulous.....champions of the ICE vehicle make up problems, because they are hide bound old troglodytes.....masquerading as wise men.
Hate to be so blunt, but at 80 I've had it with ignoramuses who imagine they're some kind of pundit.....they mislead a lot of people with their bilge about the negatives to EV adoption. THE PLANET CAN'T AFFORD THEM, EV'S BY COMPARISON ARE AN INVESTMENT IN TOMORROW.
In China, EVs cost a hair less than gasoline powered cars. EVs break down less than gasolline powered cars. My first EV was a used one. It served me well until I crashed it. So don't dismiss buying a used EV. The batteries mostly last a long time. But the older EVs have less range than the newer ones. Fixing EVs can be a booger if something weird but normal stuff like tires is easy enough.
You can buy a used Model 3 for $20,000 that's better than any new gas car selling for $40,000. Don't believe me? Try and find one.
Last year, 16 million new cars were sold in the US. Fewer than 10% were electric. Doing the math, some 40,000 gas cars are sold every day. Average price of a new car is just under $50,000. Cheapest new gas car is about $18,000. For that, you can get a used Model 3, or any number of used EVs, all of which are vastly better than the cheap econo-box gas car.
Americans bought 37 million used cars last year. Average price was just over $25,000. These numbers suggest that 100% of all new car buyers can easily afford EVs, and probably a good 80% of all used car buyers. So when you say "For many people EVs are too expensive.", the data doesn't support your position. The vast majority of all car buyers can afford EVs.
It's never been about those who can't afford to switch, it's always been about those who can, but refuse to make the switch. They are the bad guys here.
This discussion should include hybrids because they provide much better gas mileage than regular gasoline-powered cars and owners don't have to worry about finding charging stations on trips or if they don't have their own house with a garage charging their car locally. They cost a few thousand more than gasoline-powered cars and are significantly cheaper than all electric cars. Toyota and Honda particularly seem to be focusing on hybrids rather than all-electric cars. I think there is still a need for far more charging stations for electric cars to take off. And while level 3 chargers can charge a car in under a half hour they are quite expensive to use and from what I have read are not as good for a car as using a level 1 or level 2 charger. Finally I don't understand why Americans buy so many large SUVs. They get lousy gas mileage as do pick-up trucks which I have read are the predominant vehicle in the South apparently due to the need to project masculinity. Electric large SUVs and pick-ups require massive batteries that in turn require additional mining and therefore result in more environmental problems to produce. I think it would be helpful if Americans returned to buying more compacts and subcompacts. But I don't see that happening. Common sense does not seem to be much a virtue in America these days. The failure of the U.S. to reduce carbon dioxide emissions enough to avoid catastrophic climate change based on what the science says somewhat reflects that.
"I don't understand why Americans buy so many large SUVs."
This is a significant part of the problem. Americans will buy a vehicle for their vacations when they think they need to carry a lot of stuff a long way. Most folks never use the full capacity of their giant SUVs, even on vacation. At best, it's half full or maybe 3/4 full. The result is they drive around on a daily basis in a vehicle that's over 1,000 lbs. heavier than it needs to be. They are buying more gas than they otherwise would need, and they are generating more pollution. They then compound the problem by driving inefficiently.
The solution to that problem is to buy the most efficient vehicle for your DAILY needs, then rent the larger vehicle for trips with the family. And for those, you can rent a Model X and drive all over the country for a lot less than a gas SUV, and you won't be spewing pollution out of a tailpipe. And you'll be a lot safer. You do like safety, right?
"This discussion should include hybrids because they provide much better gas mileage than regular gasoline-powered cars and owners don't have to worry about finding charging stations on trips or if they don't have their own house with a garage charging their car locally."
Today, you can get a Model 3 for $20,000 that's better than any new gas car selling for $40,000. No need to buy anything that burns gas. Tesla's supercharger network is constantly expanding where needed, so you can drive anywhere, anytime. Non-Tesla EVs that have NACS connectors can also use this charging network, so you can buy quite a few EVs with 300+ miles of range that can charge in 20 minutes.
"And while level 3 chargers can charge a car in under a half hour they are quite expensive to use and from what I have read are not as good for a car as using a level 1 or level 2 charger."
Tesla's chargers are always cheaper than gas, and that's without including the negative externalities of buying and burning gas. Why do you leave those out? There is also no problem fast charging a Tesla all the time.
China’s reasons for promoting EV’s has a lot to do with air pollution in their cities. How do I know, well I have close family who live and work in China have done for over 10 years now. Living/working in Shenzhen, Shanghai, now in Beijing.
That apart, while the headline growth of EVs is rapid, they still represent a minority of the market. Globally, electric cars (including both battery-electric and plug-in hybrids) account for roughly 25% to 28% of all new car sales. While certain regions have crossed the tipping point—such as China, where EV sales routinely cross 50–60% of the monthly market, and Norway, which is near 95%—globally, about 3 out of every 4 new cars sold still feature a traditional ICE vehicles.
The narrative that EVs will rapidly "solve" transport emissions ignores the sheer scale and inertia of global industrial infrastructure. EVs are currently acts of energy substitution within a system that is still fundamentally expanding its total energy consumption. Until the total global fleet contracts, the grid completely decarbonizes, and the heavy commercial transport sectors find a viable alternative, EV adoption will merely slow the rate of emissions growth rather than cause an absolute decline.
In short in the timescale required for EV’s to have any significant effect, it just ain’t gonna’ happen, for as fossil fuels deplete so will humans on an unprecedented scale. WASF!😱🤔
I’m not asking you Ingamarie to accept this conclusion, all I’ve done is present some facts, if I expect anything it’s that you check those facts out and follow on from there as a person with an enquiring mind. However if you wish to believe in misinformation because it makes you feel safe, that’s entirely up to you, but if you promote misinformation then don’t be surprised if you’re corrected.
When it comes to political ideologies, conflicts and wars I’m sorry, but I’m not into game theory, particularly those games that play with people’s lives, but that doesn’t mean that I don’t care about the deaths, injuries, pain and suffering caused, especially to the innocent, though sadly, expect more.
If you have a sense of foreboding in trying to make sense of what’s going on in the world, and around you, and perhaps seek understanding and solace, you might like to check out Sarah Wilson’s recently published book” I Eat the Stars: How to Live Fully and Beautifully in a Collapsing World”🤔✌️
But as to what is to come, or how quickly we can wean ourself off fossil fuels and fools.......I don't think any future scenario is a 'fact'. We have a tendency in the west to believe we can predict the future, based on our analysis of a set of present realities........but for me, that is just hubris.
We've accepted the inevitability of endless war........fueled by fossil oil and gas. We've assumed building the weapons of mass destruction that we projected onto Iraq a few short years ago (every accusation a confession), must go on and somehow will keep us safe.
In Canada, we elected a central banker to save us from a rageaholic conservative, and he just today endorsed Trump's stupid new attack on Iran.........imagining that I, and many smarter than I, don't understand why Iran struck those ships trying, under American protection, to get through the strait of Hormuz on the Omani side, in contradiction of Iran's determination to control the straits.
The west is full of hubris..........half truths western leaders and pundits, try to spin into some kind of whole cloth.
But here's the thing. None of us know what the future holds. But for darn sure, going all in on renewable energies would make more sense than killing each other..........and the ecospheres we all depend on........so that AMERICAN FOSSIL FUEL DOMINANCE CAN CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 50 YEARS.
Everyone with a working brain knows Trump's plan is to own all the world's oil. That's what the Iran war is about.........that's what the Ukrainian war is about. That's likely why he attacked Iran,, and that's why he wants Canada........Alberta to be precise.....to be the 51st state. Our Alberta separatists receive money from rich f*cks in America's MAGA looney bin.
The Future is beyond our projections. But continuing to War over a planet killing fuel seems a guarantee that many doors are permanently closing. Making sacrifices to clean up our act would be smarter.......and likely, more fun. What's more, the speed with which renewables are becoming better and cheaper.........suggests that a lot of smart technocrats agree with me.
Oh I can agree with much of what you’ve said there Ingamarie, except when it comes to REbuildables.
Check this out with your favourite AI/LLM (exactly as it’s written)👇, I’m assuming you do use one; but read it first just so you can understand I’m not biasing it in any way, just trying to get to the truth. But don’t expect to be pleased with the answer you get.
"According to official International Energy Agency (IEA) reports, data shows that global fossil fuel consumption and carbon emissions are hitting all-time highs despite record-breaking renewable energy deployment. Explain the macroeconomic and systemic factors that cause this apparent paradox. In your answer, explicitly address to what extent the fossil fuels consumed during the heavy manufacturing, supply chains, and infrastructure build-out of renewable energy converters contribute to this global rise in emissions compared to general global energy demand growth." 🤔
Whether global energy consumption expands depends on whether climate chaos disrupts the global economy. Some parts of the economy are complex and fragile and with global supply chains, like fossil production. If any part of it goes down, the whole thing can collapse.
Except of course for climate deniers, there’s no doubt that “climate chaos” will disrupt the economy either in parallel with the depletion of fossil fuels or after, but sometime in the period before 2100.
You might like to check out this recent- Nate Hagens’s TGS - “What Does a Super El Niño Mean For the Climate? with Tad Patzek | TGS 225” The first 40 seconds (that is seconds) prepares you for what follows, and it’s far from reassuring.
Oh! I just remembered there’re worse than climate deniers, that’s Apocaloptomists, I trust you’re not one of those Nan, because I think you’ll find McKibben’s one. Why do I say that, well he still thinks that if we get to Net Zero by some miracle our planet’s temperature will almost immediately start reducing, but the problem is we’ve already gone through McKibben’s goal posts and yet he presumably still thinks we can get temperatures down in a human lifetime. Don’t believe me checkout this video from 2 years ago, remember 2 years ago, start at 15:33 (minutes/seconds) in; Nate Hagens - TGS - “Bill McKibben: Climate, Movements, and Power" | The Great Simplification #102🤔 E&OE
Oh it’s already begun Nan, but barring Earth being hit by a giant asteroid, or the multiple eruptions of volcanoes the probability is pretty low on a climate collapse happening tomorrow. The problem is, well I’ll let renowned British naturalist, television presenter, author, and passionate conservationist Chris Packham explain:
Opening statement by Chris Packham — transcribed from — Dr. Sofia Pineda Ochoa’s documentary film “GREENWASHED”:
“I think our species is pretty good at reacting to instantaneous catastrophe, enormous instantaneous stress. In the United States, car production was running at millions per year. And then in 1941, on the 7th or 8th of December, depending where in the world you were, the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor.
Being plunged into a disastrous global conflict meant that the American people stopped building cars and started building weapons, because they woke up one morning and the port in Hawaii was on fire, and thousands of people had been killed in that attack, and their fleet had been damaged. It was tangible. They could feel it. They were angered by it. They needed to address it, and they addressed it instantaneously and forthrightly.
But the problem with the existential environmental issues is that it's not happening quickly, it's happening perceptibly slowly. And our psychology is just not good at dealing with these slow burners, you know. And that's gonna cost us the earth.”🤔 E&OE
I’m sorry Nan, but I don’t recollect calling you “stupid” it’s not a word I use, except perhaps as a rhetorical question. I try hard not to insult people, maybe you’ve confused me with another conversation.
Mal, I’m an Ecological Doomer, I’ve not always been an Ecological Doomer, in fact in most other aspects I’ve always been optimistic, but over last 12 years as the conversation has heated up around Climate Change, Global Warming, but let’s give it its proper names Global Heating or Planetary Heating, along with Crossing Ecological Planetary Boundaries, Peak Oil, Oil Based Plastic and Microplastic Pollution, Degradation of Forrests, Water, The Air We Breathe, CO₂, the list goes on.
Over that 12 years nothing changed, and it can be seen to be getting much worse. We’re talking about the makings of the Poly and Metacrisis, predicaments, not problems. As you should know problems have solutions, predicaments don’t, only outcomes and the out comes are going to be far from painless, and the younger you are the more that pain will be felt.
I’m sorry if you find that upsetting, it is upsetting. Sarah Wilson — Multi-New York Times and Amazon bestselling author, journalist, and social philosopher, came to the same conclusion like I and many others, that things within the human sphere and ecologically are out of control, she’s written a book based around her past and recent articles and experiences, recently published, entitled “Eat the Stars: How to Live Fully and Beautifully in a Collapsing World”, it’s a reasonably good book, check it out. The intention of her book is that those who feel something is wrong with the world, but don’t quite know quite what it is will be enlightened, bring likeminded people together and through that she hopes, solace.
However there’s one thing that differentiates Sarah Wilson from me apart from the obvious, She’s like many others is an Apocaloptomist. If you don’t know what Apocaloptomist are they’re defined as: Someone who is fully aware of the grave, impending crises facing the world (such as climate change, peak oil’s effects, or the rapid advancement of AI) but remains hopeful, continuing to take positive action. And in that respect that’s where we part, as I’m just an out and out Ecological Doomer, with words like “Hope” being an enigma.
Someone who’s well known in the Global Heating Social Media Camp, is out and out Climate Doomer Dr. Eliot Jacobson, retired professor of mathematics and computer science, it’s worth listening to a 16 minute video clip of him being asked what he defines as “Hope” and how does he deal with the thought of impending doom not only for himself but also his family and the wider world: Platform “Last Born in the Wilderness - Eliot Jacobson: Climate Data, Doomerism, & Deceptive Expectations”🤔✌️
Paul.. none of that could have been done without using vehicles that run on fossil fuels. Trying to stop the oil industry would be counterproductive. Leave us without the energy to complete the transition to the wonderful all-electric world.
Using ff to transition to renewables is practical and in no way diminishes the need to fully transition. You're making the perfect be the enemy of the good. The more we build electric semis (Tesla is leading the way), electric mining trucks (the biggest in the world), and electric tractors and combines, all those nasty ff uses will grow smaller and less consequential until we get to 100%.
All of the colossal mineral extraction needed to support this plug-and-play energy replacement theory will have to be done by diesel-powered machines, and transported by other diesel-burning machines. Even if we don’t need the gasoline, we still need those heavier fractions for our sea, air, and ground transportation network, steel, concrete, plastics, asphalt. This economy cannot be replaced by renewable energy. That ain’t happening. We need to transition away from fossil fuels, but the world and economy we build won’t, and can’t, look like this one.
"All of the colossal mineral extraction needed to support this plug-and-play energy replacement theory will have to be done by diesel-powered machines, and transported by other diesel-burning machines."
Not true. Tesla semi is ramping production in their new factory to 50,000 units. Demand is strong and will only grow as more logistics companies realize how much they can save. Heavy duty mining equipment is also going electric. Google it and see the amazing progress.
"This economy cannot be replaced by renewable energy."
Not only is this incorrect, it'll happen quickly. All ICE manufacturing will end around 2035. Existing ICE vehicles will age out over the following decade. This means we can expect to have essentially a 100% electric fleet in about 20 years.
The grid will take a little longer, but probably not more than 30 years from now.
Make sure you and all your friends never buy another gas car. Research which EV will serve your daily needs, figure out where you'll charge it, then save up and get it done as quickly as possible. If you drive a gas car, this should be your top priority.
I love it! Oil as Achilles heel. The image of Ukrainian drones bombing Russian refineries deep in Russia. Of Russians in very, very long lines for gasoline. Of Russian horse breeders scrambling to supply rising demand for horses. Of Iran bombing disobedient tanker ships. Tankers ARE just bombs waiting for a spark to explode them. Of China's race to electrify cars as a defense tactic. May the oil demand be destroyed more.
Right off the bat, you made a comment that did not get sufficient coverage as to the conundrum you set up, which is my current concern … universally … applicable to every journalist, NGO, scientist, engineer, policy maker and entrepreneur!
I feel compelled to make this observation:
You said: (YouTube 6:09) “we're not short of energy, you know, but we are short of time. uh because if we're going to make any real difference in the single most critical question that humans face which is the rapid heating of the earth then we have to do this very fast faster than economic forces and things by themselves would”
My comment on YouTube: “This NYT interview was excellent... Ezra is well informed ... Bill is a great salesman ... but do they ignore or are they ignorant that the oil industry has the talent and tool to optimize the logistics and "costs" of dismantling itself if forced to do so with least deleterious impacts on society, economy and retirement funds—without allowing bankruptcy?”
Absolutely superb analysis here - fossil fuel fragility is fast becoming a nation-state's weakest point!
Here in Houston, I see the fragility of fossil fuels. I wish our movement talked about it more. But there's a perverse fun in having a devil to blame. It gets us off the hook of having to do our best. But, when scared, blaming and shaming a devil is too easy. Besides, it's what our opponents do. I call it fundamentalism. Environmental fundamentalists fight with fundamentalists on the other side and nobody learns from the other party. I ask you to not demonize the fossil companies.
No longer are fossil fuels Houston's #1 employer. Instead Texas Medical Center is now #1. Fossil fuel companies have had layoffs and more layoffs.
Fossil fuels struggle for capital. They pay more than clean energy, I think it's twice as much, to get capital now. So their annual capital expenditures have fallen since 2012 or so to half that. They have to do a difficult dance to get by on less capital and yet maintain profits and share price. My source is RMI's Cleantech Revolution.
Some in Houston's Chamber of Commerce brag that Houston is the renewable energy capital of the US.
Just because fossil fuels have been stagnant for perhaps five years, they still are proud and remember when they dominated. Yes, fossils made America great but that's history. It will never make us great again. Cheaper energy trumps them. Cleaner, cheaper and better energy trumps fossil fuels.
Our enemy is the story that fossil fuels were the source of America's greatness. And that they will rise again.
As a ICU RN, none of us liked dealing with the withdrawals of addicted patients.
May all the renewables buffer our 'cold turkey' situations, and work faster.
I think Don Gillmor's title, "On Oil," bears the meaning of oil as an addiction.
Thank you for the reference. I'll have to read that.
He gave an interesting interview here: Ideas with Nahlah Ayed - https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-23-ideas/clip/16224611-oil-become-its-belief-system-argues-writer
Thank you!
Our hardwired love of 'combustion' is the one 'egregore' I'd love to get rid of .
Great update Bill, thank you for all of your good work.
Great article. I loved the part about horses being used due to the gas shortages in Russia. Thanks, Bill.
Is that like the one about the washing machines being used to weapons. Enjoy the propaganda!
You too.
You know what Vlad says, if I can't have oil powered energy, the US won't have it either...
I was so glad to see what you said about green energy. Back before 2008, when I last had a job, my 401 k was strictly fixed income or green funds. No, I didn't make much money, but I never lost a dime on fixed income funds. And although I didn't win on green funds, I am so glad to see that green funds are killing it now. As Dylan said, you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. And actually, ever since, I've advised people with 401 ks to buy green funds. I hope they listened. My house has been solar powered since 2016 and my son has driven a Bolt since 2015. Think of what he's saving and has saved, here in the Bay Area where gas is running about $5.89 a gallon, and fueling his car off the roof.
I admit Russia is doing little to address climate change, though they are not the ones who have successfully smeared renewables allegedly being part of plot by 'globalists', that would be US based interests in oil and animal ag, that got a climate denier into the White House. Russia are not the ones who consistently encouraging dependence on fossil fuels in US vassals such as the UK, to keep them depend on US energy hegemony.
That's ahistoric.
I`m missing the much neglected storable green hydrogen element in the energy mix, plus tidal and wave energy. There's plenty of natural energy available without having to release carbon for the ever decreasing sinks to absorb..
My read is that green hydrogen, while viable, is somewhat eclipsed by the insanely fast progress in battery storage - stuff like Form Energy's multi-day iron-air battery could fill a lot of that long-term storage need without needing economically less-efficient electrolyzers
Spectacular article!
The oil refinery in Russia also matters to many Global South countries, especially now that American illegal attack on Iran has led to a reduction in oil flow from the Middle East.
BTW, all this could have been avoided if the Americans had not overthrown a democratically elected government in Ukraine and installed the present quasi-Fascist regime. As an American you ought to be more modest about being judgemental considering how much suffering your elected representatives have caused in Cuba, Gaza, Palestine and elsewhere.
Thanks for weighing in! The West was not always this bad although admittedly the CIA had a long history of intervening on Latin America and I understand instigated the Indonesian military coup against the Soekarno government that led to a massacre of many ethnic Chinese Indonesians. But there was a time when so many of us admired and looked up to the West. So I feel it is not us who are fundamentally anti-West but the West has changed. Australia used to lead the fight against Apartheid in South Australia but now the Australian government sits on its hands while a genocide goes on in Gaza. There are so few Western governments that have spoken up for the Palestinians. (Thank you Ireland, Spain.) What happened to the West? If people in the West could be more modest about their own moral position, genuine dialogue could be possible. But the loss of great or superpower status is very hard to bear and it may take a few generations. I do hope the West returns to its true values, get rid of the CIA and Five Eyes, and work with China to make the world a better place for future generations of humanity.
Well said.
This is customary Chinese defensiveness and *tu quoque* deflection of the post's topic. Diverse open sources conclude the US did not "overthrow a democratically elected government in Ukraine and install the present quasi-Fascist regime." If this is what the Chinese government is telling you, you need to diversify your information sources. It's a highly distorted view of the 2014 Euromaidan revolution, largely pushed by the Kremlin to delegitimize Ukraine's sovereignty, but happily accepted by aggrieved adversaries of the US anywhere. We have much to account for, but the Euromaidan revolution isn't one of them.
I’m not from China. BTW, China is sympathetic to both the Ukrainian and Russian people and if China had its way, the conflict would have been avoided or ended by now. But the Americans and British told the Ukrainians to renege on the Istanbul agreement because American politicians view Ukrainians as a tool to weaken Russia.
As for Maidan, I think Jeffrey Sachs has explained this very well. He actually witnessed the Maidan coup when it happened. Do check out Sachs writing on this.
True, Americans have a lot to apologise for. But still shamelessly judging others.
"I’m not from China."
Sorry, I don't believe you. The photos on your substack are taken in China. And your comments are suspiciously similar to those of a nationalistic Chinese patriot. Your privilege, but they're not persuasive to residents of other nations.
This is the best run down of the history of Ukraine.
The US is guilty of staging colour revolutions all over the world, including Ukraine.
The NED and CIA are also currently do it in Nepal, the Phillippines and Taiwan among others.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKcmNGvaDUs&list=PLNQnk4gBLrOQRsfoG3LV0AaFI1eMoo1VQ&rco=1
From the youtube video front matter:
"Covered by Western media as a people's revolution, it was in fact a coup d'état scripted and staged by nationalist groups and the U.S. State Department".
"Scripted and staged by 'nationalist' groups and the U.S. State Department":
Not saying those groups were all saints, but they weren't all neo-Nazis either. And Ukrainian nationals trying to hold off subjugation by a determined, aggressive neighbor would be 'nationalist', whatever else they were. Nor was the US the only foreign party with a hand in, as the EU had as much at stake if not more! And then there's Ukraine's clear enemy, Putin's Russia, trying to rebuild the Soviet empire by forcibly annexing its neighbors again!
Jo, why do you think a youtube video is the 'best' run down of the history of Ukraine? Why do you trust the presenters? How do you know how much of what they're saying is Russian *dezinformatsiya* they've accepted as truth? What privileged access to verifiable information do they have that the Guardian, for example, which reported on US, EU, and Russian involvement in the election and overthrow of Yanukovych, does not?
Once again: the US has much to answer for, but to the best of my knowledge *or* yours, Yanukovych was overthrown by a genuine popular uprising against an elected but corrupt and traitorous leader, who fled to their biggest enemy. To claim the US 'scripted and staged' it is to deny the whole nation of Ukraine agency!
What about Jeffrey Sachs and me? Are we Chinese?
You don't have to be Chinese to be uncritically favorable to China and hostile to the US, Jo.
No worries. Up to you I am just telling you. Anyway, I am also a Christian and English is my first language. I am trying to learn Chinese. If you look at my Substack posts, you will see English and Chinese versions of my short essays. The Chinese version will I am sure sound strange to a native Chinese speaker.
You know. You should hold to your presuppositions less tightly. Also beware of “correspondence bias”, being a tendency to infer stable traits from a small sample of a person’s behaviour.
Do check out my Substack journal in The Possibility of Democratic Choice if you are curious about my world view.
Best wishes, sir!
A Christian? You should hold on to your presuppositions less tightly too, for what is God but a presupposition of magical thinkers? And while correspondence bias is deceptive, I've simply noticed too many Chinese nationalists on the blogosphere, determined to blame the US unto the seventh generation for every evil in the world, while boasting of their own national virtue. Believe it or not, you sound very like them!
As a self-aware patriotic American, I'm afraid I can't wish you well, even if I'm disappointed in a slim majority of my fellow citizens for electing our current kakistocracy. I can't stop you from propagating your biased opinions here, of course, that's up to Dr. McKibben. Frankly, I hope he doesn't moderate cognitively motivated commenters like you out. I've got plenty of time 8^D!
So we are either victims of Chinese propaganda or Putin lovers I guess.
Peace be with you.
Let us reflect on the example of Christ. Who not counting equality with God as something to be grasped, rather he made himself nothing by taking the very nature of a servant, becoming obesity to death, even death on the cross. (Philippians 2:5-8). One of my favourite passages of the Bible.
Let us walk in the way of peace.
Here's how the BBC 'debunk' their own reporting about the existence of organised neonazis, such as the Azov; who still openly where Nazi insignia, running the government out in 2014 and bombing ethnic Russians for 8 years after.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvsnYJPqLSI.
Fine, write off the BBC. Why trust anyone else more? Where's your skepticism, Jo?
AFAICT, the Azov neonazis are homegrown Ukrainian nationalists. In 2018 the US designated them terrorists under the Leahy Law, prohibiting US arms makers from supplying them with weapons until Trump took office the 2nd time. Trump, of course, has no use for the US Constitution. But he isn't America, despite what he'd like you to believe!
Oh dear. There is considerable evidence of US involvement in the coup and the US and McCain are super proud that they're in it with Ukraine- here being thanked by Ukrainians for stirring them up before hand in 2013. Yanukovych was as democratically elected as anyone in the US is. And I don't know what else you'd call openly neonazis battalions, being funded and trained by the UK and US, shelling the Russian speakers in the Donbas for 8 years (as reported in the MSM) that Zelensky can do nothing about.
These sources are not the Kremlin- they're the Daily Mail and Youtube, it's just they've fallen into the memory hole.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=john+mccain+maidan+square
"There is considerable evidence of US involvement in the coup".
That's not the same as "it's all the US's fault", Jo. There's considerable evidence of Russian involvement too. Neither it, nor the US, nor the EU have won anything like all they each want. Now the Ukraine is fighting a Russian invasion, with atrocities on both sides. Do you think Americans and Europeans should not support Ukrainian nationhood? Shouldn't Russia just quit trying to rebuild the Soviet empire for the narcissistic pride of its virtual dictator?
Why are we not working to create a national movement AND a National March for our climate, green energy and the reduction of fossil fuels. The evidence of climate change is dramatic now in almost all of the aspects of our lives and in so many parts of the world. This is a great time to show up with feet on the ground in a massive demonstration of concern. All the important changes in our US history have happened when people showed up en masse.
Go for it. But I beg to argue with you on "all the important changes happened when people showed up en masse". There are 398 ways to make change and much of it is gradual, like a tree growing. Besides my mobility is limited. I'm using a walker now. Will you join me in helping finance 2 electric cars for African taxi drivers? https://www.kiva.org/lend/3192962
I heard an interview with Don Gillmor about his book "On Oil." He tells about subsidies to fossil fuels and none to renewables, from Trump and others as well. But even so, renewables are winning, for economic reasons.
Yes, do you know any trump supporters? The only one I know is my sister and she refuses to discuss politics. Here's something to show your trump loving friends. I didn't know Trump was stealing more than any President ever. This has been an education for me. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaQ_95hPhu4
I'm here in Oil Country and the oil lovers are in the minority now but not enough folks are talking about how oil is now becoming as has been. The oil people, many of them, know it, but won't talk about it. My people don't all believe oil is now becoming obsolete. So good work is our realizing that they aren't ten feet tall and covered with black hair. Instead they are a dying industry.
While they aren't 'ten feet tall and covered with black hair', they're not dead yet. They can still obstruct collectively decarbonizing the US economy. But maybe not forever.
Nat Bullard said the independent oil companies are putting a bigger % of their cash into capital expenditures than the majors. About 50% more. He said it in slide #169 of 2026 report https://www.nathanielbullard.com/presentations They are the one investing more in new fossil infrastructure.
Others say that Exxon is notoriously closed minded on the topic of transition. So then the independents would be even more closed minded. To an Exxon worker, it's just a job but to an independent entrepreneur it's more personal. Their Achilles heel would be financing. And failing profits due to declining demand. We can explain to them that oil is now in an era of decline and risk.
Do you think 🤔 judo 🥋 ninja PUTIN could throw Donut 🍩😋 Rump over his shoulder ❓❓‼️👌👹🎄🙏😇
Bill asserts: "Look, world leaders should be moving quickly to clean energy because it’s the one scaleable weapon in the war against climate change."
But...the basic problem remains. It can't be done without using vehicles than run on buried carbon...gasolines and renewable biofuels. What that obviously means is finishing the energy transition will be adding CO2 to the atmosphere with little or none being taken out by lowering emissions.. And there is no viable way around it. The countries with the most oil reserves will do the best. Those committed to reducing emissions will be leaving their fossil fuel reserves in the ground. Not a very smart idea.
Over 70% of global oil production is for gasoline and diesel. Electric vehicles are quickly taking over vehicles sales - outside the US. The US is a laggard because of Trump's policies and the average intelligence of Americans and their exceptionally high level of selfishness. China's car sales are now over 65% EVs. This is up from 50% 6 months ago. Gas car sales are crashing there. Europe, too. Norway is already at 100% EV sales, and the Netherlands is at 90%. Most of Europe is over 50% EV sales.
The way to beat the oil companies is to stop buying new gas cars. Crash sales of internal combustion vehicles everywhere. Let's remove over 70% of oil industry demand. We can do this inside of 20 years.
And save money in the process. I'm always amazed when people complain that EV's are too expensive. The money you save not buying gas is only part of it. Electric vehicles have so few moving parts that our Kona, bought the end of 2019, has needed nothing fixed but the small battery that operates the radio, interior lights, dashboard display....
Imagine it: nearly 6 years without any need for repair....and everything still going strong.
For many people EVs are too expensive. If you drive enough miles you can save money in the long run but for many people a car costing well over $30,000 is too expensive. Even a gasoline-powered car costing a little less than $25,000 is to much. For those people used cars are the only real option. That can work but there is no three-year warranty and older vehicles generally require more repairs. If the U.S. let inexpensive Chinese EVs in that would solve a lot of problems. But so far the the U.S. government has opted to protect car companies making cars in this country.
True, but for many others, they are just hide bound and scared of new technology. There's a lot of BS out there from old fossil fools about range, heaviness, yatta yatta..........and most North Americans are more timid than they admit.
Which is why I always share how good a deal our Kona has been. One more story.....on a wilderness road, we must have driven over a stone, because our battery complained. When we took it in to the dealer, they found one cell was malfunctioning.
That is when we discovered we had a 10 year warranty on the battery........no extra charge. They brought in a new battery and installed it free of charge. So now our 2020 Kona has a 2023 battery, good to 2033........
EV's are fabulous.....champions of the ICE vehicle make up problems, because they are hide bound old troglodytes.....masquerading as wise men.
Hate to be so blunt, but at 80 I've had it with ignoramuses who imagine they're some kind of pundit.....they mislead a lot of people with their bilge about the negatives to EV adoption. THE PLANET CAN'T AFFORD THEM, EV'S BY COMPARISON ARE AN INVESTMENT IN TOMORROW.
In China, EVs cost a hair less than gasoline powered cars. EVs break down less than gasolline powered cars. My first EV was a used one. It served me well until I crashed it. So don't dismiss buying a used EV. The batteries mostly last a long time. But the older EVs have less range than the newer ones. Fixing EVs can be a booger if something weird but normal stuff like tires is easy enough.
You can buy a used Model 3 for $20,000 that's better than any new gas car selling for $40,000. Don't believe me? Try and find one.
Last year, 16 million new cars were sold in the US. Fewer than 10% were electric. Doing the math, some 40,000 gas cars are sold every day. Average price of a new car is just under $50,000. Cheapest new gas car is about $18,000. For that, you can get a used Model 3, or any number of used EVs, all of which are vastly better than the cheap econo-box gas car.
Americans bought 37 million used cars last year. Average price was just over $25,000. These numbers suggest that 100% of all new car buyers can easily afford EVs, and probably a good 80% of all used car buyers. So when you say "For many people EVs are too expensive.", the data doesn't support your position. The vast majority of all car buyers can afford EVs.
It's never been about those who can't afford to switch, it's always been about those who can, but refuse to make the switch. They are the bad guys here.
This discussion should include hybrids because they provide much better gas mileage than regular gasoline-powered cars and owners don't have to worry about finding charging stations on trips or if they don't have their own house with a garage charging their car locally. They cost a few thousand more than gasoline-powered cars and are significantly cheaper than all electric cars. Toyota and Honda particularly seem to be focusing on hybrids rather than all-electric cars. I think there is still a need for far more charging stations for electric cars to take off. And while level 3 chargers can charge a car in under a half hour they are quite expensive to use and from what I have read are not as good for a car as using a level 1 or level 2 charger. Finally I don't understand why Americans buy so many large SUVs. They get lousy gas mileage as do pick-up trucks which I have read are the predominant vehicle in the South apparently due to the need to project masculinity. Electric large SUVs and pick-ups require massive batteries that in turn require additional mining and therefore result in more environmental problems to produce. I think it would be helpful if Americans returned to buying more compacts and subcompacts. But I don't see that happening. Common sense does not seem to be much a virtue in America these days. The failure of the U.S. to reduce carbon dioxide emissions enough to avoid catastrophic climate change based on what the science says somewhat reflects that.
"I don't understand why Americans buy so many large SUVs."
This is a significant part of the problem. Americans will buy a vehicle for their vacations when they think they need to carry a lot of stuff a long way. Most folks never use the full capacity of their giant SUVs, even on vacation. At best, it's half full or maybe 3/4 full. The result is they drive around on a daily basis in a vehicle that's over 1,000 lbs. heavier than it needs to be. They are buying more gas than they otherwise would need, and they are generating more pollution. They then compound the problem by driving inefficiently.
The solution to that problem is to buy the most efficient vehicle for your DAILY needs, then rent the larger vehicle for trips with the family. And for those, you can rent a Model X and drive all over the country for a lot less than a gas SUV, and you won't be spewing pollution out of a tailpipe. And you'll be a lot safer. You do like safety, right?
"This discussion should include hybrids because they provide much better gas mileage than regular gasoline-powered cars and owners don't have to worry about finding charging stations on trips or if they don't have their own house with a garage charging their car locally."
Today, you can get a Model 3 for $20,000 that's better than any new gas car selling for $40,000. No need to buy anything that burns gas. Tesla's supercharger network is constantly expanding where needed, so you can drive anywhere, anytime. Non-Tesla EVs that have NACS connectors can also use this charging network, so you can buy quite a few EVs with 300+ miles of range that can charge in 20 minutes.
"And while level 3 chargers can charge a car in under a half hour they are quite expensive to use and from what I have read are not as good for a car as using a level 1 or level 2 charger."
Tesla's chargers are always cheaper than gas, and that's without including the negative externalities of buying and burning gas. Why do you leave those out? There is also no problem fast charging a Tesla all the time.
China’s reasons for promoting EV’s has a lot to do with air pollution in their cities. How do I know, well I have close family who live and work in China have done for over 10 years now. Living/working in Shenzhen, Shanghai, now in Beijing.
That apart, while the headline growth of EVs is rapid, they still represent a minority of the market. Globally, electric cars (including both battery-electric and plug-in hybrids) account for roughly 25% to 28% of all new car sales. While certain regions have crossed the tipping point—such as China, where EV sales routinely cross 50–60% of the monthly market, and Norway, which is near 95%—globally, about 3 out of every 4 new cars sold still feature a traditional ICE vehicles.
The narrative that EVs will rapidly "solve" transport emissions ignores the sheer scale and inertia of global industrial infrastructure. EVs are currently acts of energy substitution within a system that is still fundamentally expanding its total energy consumption. Until the total global fleet contracts, the grid completely decarbonizes, and the heavy commercial transport sectors find a viable alternative, EV adoption will merely slow the rate of emissions growth rather than cause an absolute decline.
In short in the timescale required for EV’s to have any significant effect, it just ain’t gonna’ happen, for as fossil fuels deplete so will humans on an unprecedented scale. WASF!😱🤔
Amazing how easily we accept this conclusion Barry.......an extinction like event being not only inevitable, but somehow acceptable.........
In that regard, Europe helping Ukraine with long range missiles to target Russia's fossil fuel infrastructure, makes perfect strategic sense!!
Blowing up the Nordstream pipeline falls under the same rubric.
I’m not asking you Ingamarie to accept this conclusion, all I’ve done is present some facts, if I expect anything it’s that you check those facts out and follow on from there as a person with an enquiring mind. However if you wish to believe in misinformation because it makes you feel safe, that’s entirely up to you, but if you promote misinformation then don’t be surprised if you’re corrected.
When it comes to political ideologies, conflicts and wars I’m sorry, but I’m not into game theory, particularly those games that play with people’s lives, but that doesn’t mean that I don’t care about the deaths, injuries, pain and suffering caused, especially to the innocent, though sadly, expect more.
If you have a sense of foreboding in trying to make sense of what’s going on in the world, and around you, and perhaps seek understanding and solace, you might like to check out Sarah Wilson’s recently published book” I Eat the Stars: How to Live Fully and Beautifully in a Collapsing World”🤔✌️
Thanks for the reference Barry, I'll look it up.
But as to what is to come, or how quickly we can wean ourself off fossil fuels and fools.......I don't think any future scenario is a 'fact'. We have a tendency in the west to believe we can predict the future, based on our analysis of a set of present realities........but for me, that is just hubris.
We've accepted the inevitability of endless war........fueled by fossil oil and gas. We've assumed building the weapons of mass destruction that we projected onto Iraq a few short years ago (every accusation a confession), must go on and somehow will keep us safe.
In Canada, we elected a central banker to save us from a rageaholic conservative, and he just today endorsed Trump's stupid new attack on Iran.........imagining that I, and many smarter than I, don't understand why Iran struck those ships trying, under American protection, to get through the strait of Hormuz on the Omani side, in contradiction of Iran's determination to control the straits.
The west is full of hubris..........half truths western leaders and pundits, try to spin into some kind of whole cloth.
But here's the thing. None of us know what the future holds. But for darn sure, going all in on renewable energies would make more sense than killing each other..........and the ecospheres we all depend on........so that AMERICAN FOSSIL FUEL DOMINANCE CAN CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 50 YEARS.
Everyone with a working brain knows Trump's plan is to own all the world's oil. That's what the Iran war is about.........that's what the Ukrainian war is about. That's likely why he attacked Iran,, and that's why he wants Canada........Alberta to be precise.....to be the 51st state. Our Alberta separatists receive money from rich f*cks in America's MAGA looney bin.
The Future is beyond our projections. But continuing to War over a planet killing fuel seems a guarantee that many doors are permanently closing. Making sacrifices to clean up our act would be smarter.......and likely, more fun. What's more, the speed with which renewables are becoming better and cheaper.........suggests that a lot of smart technocrats agree with me.
Oh I can agree with much of what you’ve said there Ingamarie, except when it comes to REbuildables.
Check this out with your favourite AI/LLM (exactly as it’s written)👇, I’m assuming you do use one; but read it first just so you can understand I’m not biasing it in any way, just trying to get to the truth. But don’t expect to be pleased with the answer you get.
"According to official International Energy Agency (IEA) reports, data shows that global fossil fuel consumption and carbon emissions are hitting all-time highs despite record-breaking renewable energy deployment. Explain the macroeconomic and systemic factors that cause this apparent paradox. In your answer, explicitly address to what extent the fossil fuels consumed during the heavy manufacturing, supply chains, and infrastructure build-out of renewable energy converters contribute to this global rise in emissions compared to general global energy demand growth." 🤔
Whether global energy consumption expands depends on whether climate chaos disrupts the global economy. Some parts of the economy are complex and fragile and with global supply chains, like fossil production. If any part of it goes down, the whole thing can collapse.
Except of course for climate deniers, there’s no doubt that “climate chaos” will disrupt the economy either in parallel with the depletion of fossil fuels or after, but sometime in the period before 2100.
You might like to check out this recent- Nate Hagens’s TGS - “What Does a Super El Niño Mean For the Climate? with Tad Patzek | TGS 225” The first 40 seconds (that is seconds) prepares you for what follows, and it’s far from reassuring.
Oh! I just remembered there’re worse than climate deniers, that’s Apocaloptomists, I trust you’re not one of those Nan, because I think you’ll find McKibben’s one. Why do I say that, well he still thinks that if we get to Net Zero by some miracle our planet’s temperature will almost immediately start reducing, but the problem is we’ve already gone through McKibben’s goal posts and yet he presumably still thinks we can get temperatures down in a human lifetime. Don’t believe me checkout this video from 2 years ago, remember 2 years ago, start at 15:33 (minutes/seconds) in; Nate Hagens - TGS - “Bill McKibben: Climate, Movements, and Power" | The Great Simplification #102🤔 E&OE
You wrote "will disrupt the economy either in parallel with the depletion of fossil fuels or after, but sometime in the period before 2100."
How can anyone know that climate collapse won't happen tomorrow? Or hasn't already begun? Let's have some humility.
Oh it’s already begun Nan, but barring Earth being hit by a giant asteroid, or the multiple eruptions of volcanoes the probability is pretty low on a climate collapse happening tomorrow. The problem is, well I’ll let renowned British naturalist, television presenter, author, and passionate conservationist Chris Packham explain:
Opening statement by Chris Packham — transcribed from — Dr. Sofia Pineda Ochoa’s documentary film “GREENWASHED”:
“I think our species is pretty good at reacting to instantaneous catastrophe, enormous instantaneous stress. In the United States, car production was running at millions per year. And then in 1941, on the 7th or 8th of December, depending where in the world you were, the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor.
Being plunged into a disastrous global conflict meant that the American people stopped building cars and started building weapons, because they woke up one morning and the port in Hawaii was on fire, and thousands of people had been killed in that attack, and their fleet had been damaged. It was tangible. They could feel it. They were angered by it. They needed to address it, and they addressed it instantaneously and forthrightly.
But the problem with the existential environmental issues is that it's not happening quickly, it's happening perceptibly slowly. And our psychology is just not good at dealing with these slow burners, you know. And that's gonna cost us the earth.”🤔 E&OE
I’m sorry Nan, but I don’t recollect calling you “stupid” it’s not a word I use, except perhaps as a rhetorical question. I try hard not to insult people, maybe you’ve confused me with another conversation.
Mal, I’m an Ecological Doomer, I’ve not always been an Ecological Doomer, in fact in most other aspects I’ve always been optimistic, but over last 12 years as the conversation has heated up around Climate Change, Global Warming, but let’s give it its proper names Global Heating or Planetary Heating, along with Crossing Ecological Planetary Boundaries, Peak Oil, Oil Based Plastic and Microplastic Pollution, Degradation of Forrests, Water, The Air We Breathe, CO₂, the list goes on.
Over that 12 years nothing changed, and it can be seen to be getting much worse. We’re talking about the makings of the Poly and Metacrisis, predicaments, not problems. As you should know problems have solutions, predicaments don’t, only outcomes and the out comes are going to be far from painless, and the younger you are the more that pain will be felt.
I’m sorry if you find that upsetting, it is upsetting. Sarah Wilson — Multi-New York Times and Amazon bestselling author, journalist, and social philosopher, came to the same conclusion like I and many others, that things within the human sphere and ecologically are out of control, she’s written a book based around her past and recent articles and experiences, recently published, entitled “Eat the Stars: How to Live Fully and Beautifully in a Collapsing World”, it’s a reasonably good book, check it out. The intention of her book is that those who feel something is wrong with the world, but don’t quite know quite what it is will be enlightened, bring likeminded people together and through that she hopes, solace.
However there’s one thing that differentiates Sarah Wilson from me apart from the obvious, She’s like many others is an Apocaloptomist. If you don’t know what Apocaloptomist are they’re defined as: Someone who is fully aware of the grave, impending crises facing the world (such as climate change, peak oil’s effects, or the rapid advancement of AI) but remains hopeful, continuing to take positive action. And in that respect that’s where we part, as I’m just an out and out Ecological Doomer, with words like “Hope” being an enigma.
Someone who’s well known in the Global Heating Social Media Camp, is out and out Climate Doomer Dr. Eliot Jacobson, retired professor of mathematics and computer science, it’s worth listening to a 16 minute video clip of him being asked what he defines as “Hope” and how does he deal with the thought of impending doom not only for himself but also his family and the wider world: Platform “Last Born in the Wilderness - Eliot Jacobson: Climate Data, Doomerism, & Deceptive Expectations”🤔✌️
Paul.. none of that could have been done without using vehicles that run on fossil fuels. Trying to stop the oil industry would be counterproductive. Leave us without the energy to complete the transition to the wonderful all-electric world.
Using ff to transition to renewables is practical and in no way diminishes the need to fully transition. You're making the perfect be the enemy of the good. The more we build electric semis (Tesla is leading the way), electric mining trucks (the biggest in the world), and electric tractors and combines, all those nasty ff uses will grow smaller and less consequential until we get to 100%.
All of the colossal mineral extraction needed to support this plug-and-play energy replacement theory will have to be done by diesel-powered machines, and transported by other diesel-burning machines. Even if we don’t need the gasoline, we still need those heavier fractions for our sea, air, and ground transportation network, steel, concrete, plastics, asphalt. This economy cannot be replaced by renewable energy. That ain’t happening. We need to transition away from fossil fuels, but the world and economy we build won’t, and can’t, look like this one.
"All of the colossal mineral extraction needed to support this plug-and-play energy replacement theory will have to be done by diesel-powered machines, and transported by other diesel-burning machines."
Not true. Tesla semi is ramping production in their new factory to 50,000 units. Demand is strong and will only grow as more logistics companies realize how much they can save. Heavy duty mining equipment is also going electric. Google it and see the amazing progress.
"This economy cannot be replaced by renewable energy."
Not only is this incorrect, it'll happen quickly. All ICE manufacturing will end around 2035. Existing ICE vehicles will age out over the following decade. This means we can expect to have essentially a 100% electric fleet in about 20 years.
The grid will take a little longer, but probably not more than 30 years from now.
"This economy cannot be replaced by renewable energy. That ain’t happening."
Actually, it is happening. QED.
Loved this analysis! I'm agitated that it's taking multiple wars to push people to embrace green technology, but better late than never, I guess.
Make sure you and all your friends never buy another gas car. Research which EV will serve your daily needs, figure out where you'll charge it, then save up and get it done as quickly as possible. If you drive a gas car, this should be your top priority.
Above all, if you're a US citizen, vote Democratic in every election, as the defacto party of collective intervention in fossil fuel profits.
I love it! Oil as Achilles heel. The image of Ukrainian drones bombing Russian refineries deep in Russia. Of Russians in very, very long lines for gasoline. Of Russian horse breeders scrambling to supply rising demand for horses. Of Iran bombing disobedient tanker ships. Tankers ARE just bombs waiting for a spark to explode them. Of China's race to electrify cars as a defense tactic. May the oil demand be destroyed more.
Please help us finance 2 electric cars for African taxi drivers. Also solar in Madagascar. Few countries need it as badly as they do.
https://www.kiva.org/lend/3192962
https://www.kiva.org/lend/3200760
Movie showing tonight 7/7
https://thirdact.org/events/
Thurs lunch zoom of Third Act Faith Working Group.
https://thirdact.org/faith/events/
Don Quixote is helping us...
https://saidthecat.blogspot.com/2026/06/el-ingenioso-caballero-de-la-mancha.html
Excited to get our first solar panels on our house!!!
Bill, I just now watched your NYT interview with Ezra. Well done, you both were brilliant, engaging and informative! BRAVO‼️
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/10/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-bill-mckibben.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share
Right off the bat, you made a comment that did not get sufficient coverage as to the conundrum you set up, which is my current concern … universally … applicable to every journalist, NGO, scientist, engineer, policy maker and entrepreneur!
I feel compelled to make this observation:
You said: (YouTube 6:09) “we're not short of energy, you know, but we are short of time. uh because if we're going to make any real difference in the single most critical question that humans face which is the rapid heating of the earth then we have to do this very fast faster than economic forces and things by themselves would”
My comment on YouTube: “This NYT interview was excellent... Ezra is well informed ... Bill is a great salesman ... but do they ignore or are they ignorant that the oil industry has the talent and tool to optimize the logistics and "costs" of dismantling itself if forced to do so with least deleterious impacts on society, economy and retirement funds—without allowing bankruptcy?”