The World Turned Upside Down

The developing world is apparently going to have to do the heavy climate lifting

In a rational world, it would have made sense for the rich countries to take the lead in fighting climate change. After all, it was rich countries got that way precisely by burning fossil fuel in the two centuries since the Industrial Revolution, and it’s the global south that is paying most of the price in terms of drought, flood and fire.

That’s why, since the international climate negotiations began thirty years ago, the assumption has been that the global north should lead the way—we had “common but differentiated responsibilities” for the future, and the job of the north was to help finance the transition away from dirty energy.

But as this year’s round of global climate talks get underway in Belem, it’s becoming clear that this common-sensical (and moral) understanding of the situation has been essentially turned on its head. If there’s going to be a solution, for now it’s mostly going to come from the poorer nations of the world. The chart above shows China—it’s emissions of co2 have apparently now peaked, or at least plateaued. It should come as no great wonder to readers of this newsletter why: their barely believable expansion of clean carbon-free energy has been the most important technological story since…the Industrial Revolution. And it shows no signs of stopping. Here, for example, is a picture of a new offshore wind turbine that the Chinese are testing.

You might notice that it has two heads instead of one. As You Ziaojing reports in Scientific American,

With a capacity of 50 MW, this supersized structure is designed to float on the ocean’s surface and can withstand typhoons, according to the company, which plans to start making the turbine later this year and to deploy it next year.

Han Yujia, a researcher of renewable energy at the California-based nonprofit Global Energy Monitor, is most impressed that Ming Yang intends to increase a turbine’s capacity by more than 20 MW in one go, far outpacing the industry’s average rate of increase of 2–3 MW each year.

If you want to read more about the spectacular events in China, the Economist has a special issue on the subject—the key articles are here, here, and here, and just to give you a sense of what’s happening there:

The scale of the renewables revolution in China is almost too vast for the human mind to grasp. By the end of last year, the country had installed 887 gigawatts of solar-power capacity—close to double Europe’s and America’s combined total. The 22m tonnes of steel used to build new wind turbines and solar panels in 2024 would have been enough to build a Golden Gate Bridge on every working day of every week that year. China generated 1,826 terawatt-hours of wind and solar electricity in 2024, five times more than the energy contained in all 600 of its nuclear weapons.

In the context of the cold war, the distinctive measure of a “superpower” was the combination of a continental span and a world-threatening nuclear arsenal. The coming-together of China’s enormous manufacturing capacity and its ravenous appetite for copious, cheap, domestically produced electricity deserves to be seen in a similar world-changing light. They have made China a new type of superpower: one which deploys clean electricity on a planetary scale.

But this miracle is verging on "old news—I’ve been telling the tale since my book came out earlier this year, always to somewhat amazed audiences.

The next half of the story is what’s unfolding around the rest of the developing world, as countries increasingly look to China, not the U.S., for leadership. Here’s what André Corrěa de Lago, the Brazilian diplomat chairing the COP 30 conference, told reporters earlier this week:

“China is coming up with solutions that are for everyone, not just China,” he said. “Solar panels are cheaper, they’re so competitive [compared with fossil fuel energy] that they are everywhere now. If you’re thinking of climate change, this is good.”

You can see this showing up in many ways around the world. In Pakistan, for instance,

Between 2022 and 2024 trade statistics show Pakistan’s annual imports of Chinese-made solar panels increasing almost fivefold to 16 gigawatts. In the first nine months of 2025 it imported another 16GW. By the end of this year, its cumulative solar imports are expected roughly to match the installed generation capacity of the national power system—capacity augmented quite recently by four spanking new coal-fired plants built and financed by China as part of its global Belt and Road infrastructure scheme.

Since 2022 the power providers responsible for that legacy capacity have seen their revenues plummet. Power consumption from the grid has dropped by around 12%. With new solar users increasingly likely to install Chinese-made batteries that allow them to enjoy access to electricity after sunset, that fall looks likely to continue.

Never to be outdone by Pakistan, word comes from India that giant conglomerate Tata—biggest provider of everything from defense equipment to tea—is now building the country’s biggest factory for making the polysilicon ingots that are the foundation of solar cells. As N.R. Sethuraman reports

Some Indian companies have shifted focus to producing cells as well as ingots and wafers, as higher U.S. tariffs on Indian products have made solar module exports less attractive.

“We find that there’s already adequate capacity of modules and many cell plants are under construction in India,” Sinha said on a post-earnings call, justifying his firm’s plan to set up a wafers and ingots factory.

So far, Adani Group has set up a plant to produce 2 GW of ingots and wafers annually.

Tata Power’s plans align with the Indian federal government’s push for increased use of locally made ingots and wafers for solar panel manufacturing to cut reliance on imports from China towards the end of the decade.

But it’s not just at the high end of the business world. Consider Yamuna Mathewsaran’s report on how Jordanian mechanics are building a big business out of recycling EV batteries to backup home solar systems.

EV batteries that are classed as end-of-life may still retain up to 80% of their original capacity, according to the International Energy Agency, which means they can still be used in second-life applications, such as household energy storage.

“I’ve seen and heard of spent batteries being hooked up to solar systems or other local power setups, often at family farms or vacation homes in semi-remote areas,” said Fadwa Dababneh, C-Hub’s director.

As well as saving money on bills and reducing battery waste, using spent batteries for energy storage stabilises the electricity grid as Jordan aims to get half of its power from renewables by 2030, up from 29% today.

This, of course, is in dire contrast to the abdication of responsibility underway in the West, especially in the U.S. I’m not going to go into more bloody detail than is necessary, but:

&—New data shows America’s carbon emissions are now rising (again, the opposite of China’s decline. This is the disgusting result of Trumpian energy priorities

&—Moving beyond carbon, new data shows America’s methane emissions are skyrocketing. As Fiona Harvey reports

At Cop26 in Glasgow in 2021, the UK, the US, the EU and other countries forged the global methane pledge, requiring a cut in methane of 30% by 2030. About 159 countries subsequently signed up.

Yet emissions from some of the main signatories have increased, data from the satellite analysis company Kayrros shows, which is likely to further raise global temperatures. Collectively, emissions from six of the biggest signatories – the US, Australia, Kuwait, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Iraq – are now 8.5% above the 2020 level.

Kuwait and Australia have made progress on cutting their emissions but emissions from US oil and gas operations have increased by 18%.

Again, this is disgusting, and it will get worse. Under fracking exec/energy secretary Christopher Wright, America is rolling back its modest methane reporting requirements

&—TrumpNASA is busily shutting down its space science lab, and TrumpNOAA is, almost inconceivably, trying to shut down the carbon dioxide monitoring station on Mauna Loa (aka the most important scientific instrument in world history) as well as the three other such stations we maintain around the world. (The Trump administration is literally trashing the scientific equipment needed for this work).

&—TrumpDOE and TrumpInterior are doing their damnedest to shut down America’s entire energy transition. The Solar Energy Industries Association reports that 500 porjects representing 116 gigawatts worth of power are now endangered. This represents half of all the proposed power projects in America. No wonder that the not-very-radical analysts at Sky News project that America will soon have “a real energy emergency.”

US consumers - who Mr Trump promised lower bills - will end up paying more because he also made renewable energy more expensive.

And that’s to say nothing of the impact on carbon emissions.

This “greenlash” has extended to other parts of the Western world—as the always sage activist and analyst Luisa Neubauer writes from Germany,

When searching for explanations for the paradoxical decrease in governments’ efforts at a time when climate threats are dramatically increasing, many land on three forces: public fatigue, financial constraints and geopolitical instability. All three are real.

But none, as she points out, are good reasons for slowing down, and indeed:

Decarbonising economies that have throughout their existence depended on fossil fuels is complicated, and will only become more so. But there is no more important task for governments than finding ways through these challenges and forging alliances of the willing to protect life. If common politics doesn’t grow a spine, then public commentators must—for the sake of, well, everything.

In fact, a new report from the thinktank Ember makes clear that Europe will benefit immensely from quick electrification. And indeed, there are signs that Europe will still push ahead. They’re coming, interestingly, from the central European countries long considered the continent’s coal belt. As Gavin Maguire writes

Power systems across Central Europe - hardly known for its sunny skies - are emerging as surprise leaders in global energy transition efforts through canny use of solar parks and locally-made battery energy storage systems.

Several major Central European economies - including Austria, Hungary, Romania and Poland - have sharply boosted the share of utility electricity production from solar farms since 2022 as part of efforts to boost home-grown energy supplies.

Between 2022 and 2025 there has been a 472% rise in battery energy storage capacity within Austria, Hungary and Romania alone, according to local utility filings.

Even in America there are signs of life. Some of these are built on sheer momentum: Texas, for instance, just signed up two huge new solar farms, which together will deliver a gigawatt of power. But there are also signs of spirited resistance. California governor Gavin Newsom went to Belem representing the world’s fourth largest economy, and he said Trump was “doubling down on stupid” when it came to climate. Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker keeps winning high marks for his climate policy too, and shows no sign of slowing down.

But as Wen Stephenson points out in a new essay in the Nation, overall it’s been the worst year ever for American climate politics, with many theoretically environmentally conscious politicians retreating under the cover provided by the likes of Bill Gates. In Stephenson’s Massachusetts, for example, despite the noble leadership of Boston mayor Michelle Wu and Senator Ed Markey, and the behind-the-scenes steadfastness of Governor Maura Healey’s crack climate team, the state legislature is considering cutting and running. Rep. Mark Cusack is pushing hard for a bill to weaken the state’s climate goals, in essence arguing that Trump is making it too hard. In essence, the state’s plan to cut emissions in half would become “advisory and unenforceable.” Meanwhile, in New York, the increasingly egregious Gov. Hochul (named to Time’s Climate 100 list despite an almost year-long blockage of congestion pricing laws) has not only come out for a new gas pipeline backed by Trump, but also, to use the headline supplied by Politico, “approved a permit for a gas-fired cryptocurrency miner.” Now there’s leadership for the ages!

What it all adds up to is that the rich world—represented mostly by the U.S., though with parts of Europe and Canada playing supporting roles—has decided that if anyone’s going to deal with climate change it’s not going to be us. We got so rich burning fossil fuels that any sacrifice—or any change at all, since at this point sun and wind are the cheapest forms of power we know—seems like an impossible affront. Some of us will keep working hard to change that immorality, but in the meantime it’s apparently up to the poorest people on earth to deal with the problems we caused. As Somini Sengupta and Brad Plumer report from Belem today:

Countries like Brazil, India, and Vietnam are rapidly expanding solar and wind power. Poorer countries like Ethiopia and Nepal are leapfrogging over gasoline-burning cars to battery-powered ones. Nigeria, a petrostate, plans to build its first solar-panel manufacturing plant. Morocco is creating a battery hub to supply European automakers. Santiago, the capital of Chile, has electrified more than half of its bus fleet in recent years.

Nothing fair about it, but the only consolation for those countries is that they’re building low-cost energy economies that before long will outcompete lazy and complacent America.

In other energy and climate news:

+Lots of remarkable climate reporting and commentary to point out this time around:

Check out, for instance, this interview with Jon Bowermaster about his new film The Keeper, about the riverkeeper program along the Hudson River. (And it’s a good chance to make clear the RFK Jr. was not the principal mover in this work, his many claims to the contrary).

Longtime environmental innovator Jules Pretty has a new set of videos about nature and recovery—very worth watching!

Dana Fisher is always worth listening to—and you can hear her and many fascinating guests in this new podcast series, COPout, tied to the ongoing Belem climate talks.

And here’s a fascinating new initiative—The Long Game—that ties sports to sustainability. It insists that sport is the “most important cultural lever,” pointing out that “68% of people follow sport — only 12% follow science.”

+They’re not quite matching Pope Leo, but the bishops of the United Methodist Church did put out a new letter insisting: “God promises no harm, and as people who follow the ways of God, we too are committed to do no harm to any part of God’s creation.” It’s a start, but as Sharon Delgado, convener of Fossil Free United Methodists, responded

“ I would be remiss if I did not mention one more request that I hope will be addressed in future conversations: that “The Council of Bishops will support fossil fuel divestment at every level of the church, affirm and promote Wespath’s fossil free Social Values Funds, and provide witness for continued full divestment of the denomination in accordance with the mission, social principles, and priorities of the Church.”

+A new study makes clear that solar panels save lives: young lives in particular.

Analysis of a decade’s worth of data found that imported panels saved just under 600 lives and provided nearly $30 million in climate and health benefits in the United States, according to a news release from City University of New York. The school worked with Stony Brook University and Hunter College on the study.

It spotlights the sustainable energy source’s underreported health attributes. The panels prevented about 178 million tons of harmful air pollution from dirty fuels during the examined timeframe, contributing to reduced premature deaths. The research focused on data from 2014 to 2022.

But what we save in one column we lose in another. New research from Duke finds that plastics are turning into an almost Biblical curse for Americans.

Plastic products are everywhere in daily life in the United States. Yet the economic, environmental and health costs of plastic to society reach up to $1.1 trillion per year—and that’s likely an underestimate.

This report provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of the documented economic costs of plastic to the United States. The authors find that the annual social cost of plastic is estimated to be $436 billion to $1.109 trillion per year. This figure is a conservative estimate and reflects both the limited availability of cost estimates as of July 2025 across the entire plastics life cycle—from fossil fuel extraction and production to use, disposal, and mismanagement—and the uncertainty embedded in the studies that informed this analysis.

+Jamaica has been truly decimated by Hurricane Melissa—the damage is beyond calculation. But one group of people made out better than others: those with solar panels on the roof. As Hiroko Tabuchi reports:

A small but vibrant market for rooftop solar panels in Jamaica has long been seen as a promising way to wean the nation off imported fossil fuels. The country is reliant on oil and gas from abroad for its power plants, which not only is polluting but also makes Jamaica’s electricity some of the priciest in the world per kilowatt-hour.

But now, solar power is also seen as a way for Jamaica and other nations in one of the world’s most hurricane-prone regions to become more resilient to ever-intensifying storms.

Rooftop solar has grown significantly in Jamaica over the past decade, from less than 1.4 megawatts in 2015 to nearly 65 megawatts in 2023, a significant amount for a small island, experts say. Overall, solar and other forms of renewable energy made up about 10 percent of Jamaica’s power generation in 2023.

Wide swaths of the country remain without electricity after Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica as a Category 5 storm last week, killing at least 32 people and destroying an untold number of buildings and homes. “You’re talking about restoring a very lengthy, complex and expensive infrastructure,” said David Gumbs, an expert on energy in the Caribbean at the Rocky Mountain Institute and the former chief executive of the Anguilla Electricity Company.

“With solar, you maintain some ability to continue generating electricity” without relying on hundreds of miles of damaged power lines, he said. “And in the Caribbean context, when the hurricane passes, if I have rooftop solar and batteries and if I can keep my refrigerator running, my entire neighborhood benefits.”

+The last bit of good news from last week’s elections arrived overnight, as it became clear that Seattle had elected a new mayor. Katie Wilson rose to prominence as head of the Transit Riders Union, and she doesn’t own a car, which should give you some sense of her priorities.

From her platform:

Seattle should be setting an example for cities around the country and the world.

From dangerous heatwaves to wildfire smoke, we’re already feeling the effects of climate change. In the 2021 heat dome, over 400 Washington residents died, mostly seniors and vulnerable adults in their own homes that lack air conditioning. The City isn’t doing nearly enough to prevent that from happening again, and Seattle’s climate pollution is trending in the wrong direction — rising, not falling.

+You’ll have figured out by now that I’m a fan of solar power. But the sun doesn’t just give us light, and warmth, and via photosynthesis our supper, and via solar panels and wind turbines a huge supply of free energy. It also provides immense beauty, never more so than when a solar flare sets off the aurora borealis. This picture, by Nick Bull, is from last night over Stonehenge. What lucky people we are to live on this earth!