Stuck

Our politics is in a rut, and it will take new energy to climb out

In the mountains of the northeast, where I’ve spent my life, we have a season in between winter and spring—mud season, it’s called, when snowmelt and rain can turn the region’s dirt roads into quags and mires from which escape is difficult. (And sometimes impossible, with nearly fatal consequences). Driving down a mud season road, the ruts just keep getting deeper—and either you reach a patch of dry ground and escape, or you sink into the muck till at some point your tires start to spin or the undercarriage of your car hangs up. At which point you need a friend with a tow chain and a truck.

The worst parts of the Uvalde and Buffalo massacres, obviously, were the massacres: dozens dead, families broken, survivors scarred forever. But there was also the secondary horror that, as usual, nothing happened in response. Unlike a long list of other countries that dramatically tightened their gun laws after mass shootings, our politicians lapsed quickly into their well-worn grooves: it’s a mental health problem, perhaps we should only have one door at schools, let’s arm teachers. Maybe Joe Manchin is right when he says “this time it feels different” and that a bipartisan group of Senators will deliver gun legislation. But since that same Senator Manchin said he would not do anything to override the Senate’s filibuster rules, color me skeptical. (The filibuster, he said memorably, was the “only thing that prevents us from total insanity.” Okay.)

This type of lather-rinse-repeat cycle is also familiar to those of us working on the climate crisis, where we’re also deep in a policy rut. At this point each new forest fire or heatwave produces a reliable series of quotes about how we must change, and a reliable lack of action from…anyone. In fact, we’re clearly getting farther from serious change: earlier today the Times had an important piece on the ways that the financial industry is backtracking from earlier promises to work on climate change. Blackrock is the biggest beast in the planet’s financial jungle, and it may have the smallest spine: after protests from officials in Texas and West Virginia, it said it would support fewer shareholder proposals on climate going forward. “We are perhaps the world’s largest investor in fossil fuel companies, and, as a long-term investor in these companies, we want to see these companies succeed and prosper,” the company wrote Texas regulators in a particularly craven example of capitulation; meanwhile, banking giant HSBC wouldn’t even say whether they’d suspended a key executive who’d memorably explained why the bank continued to fund the fossil fuel industry: “Who cares if Miami is six meters underwater in 100 years?” Who indeed?

Our country has fallen into a rut where we expect stalemate and inaction. It’s not that we lack popular support: huge majorities favor climate action and gun regulation. It’s not that we lack technology: renewable energy is now so cheap that as a new study pointed out this week adopting it en masse would save our economies trillions. But each time we get stalemate and inaction the rut deepens—people become more hopeless and cynical. If you’re the NRA or Exxon, that’s the best possible outcome: you want the status quo to drag on as long as possible. A mass shooting or an enormous forest fire is a challenge, but if you make it through the initial outcry you’ve strengthened your hand. If you hate the idea of government, then government inaction proves your point.

Which means it’s up to the rest of us to figure out how to jump our society out of those ruts. It requires organizing, and obviously we’ve seen lots of it: after the Parkland shootings there was a huge upsurge in (mostly youthful) protest about gn policy; it was soon echoed by the Greta-inspired youth uprising over climate. These efforts were powerful—for a year or two, corporations actually made promises about carbon. But they weren’t powerful enough. So either we give up, or we organize to make them bigger.

I don’t know precisely what that looks like with gun control: my sense is that millions of Americans keeping their kids out of fourth grade for a week might start to put real pressure on the system, but of course that’s hard to organize: it disrupts daily life, and takes a little of the commitment that, say, powered the Montgomery bus boycott.

I don’t know for sure on climate change, either. My suspicion is that the banking and financial system is the weak point. If supposedly engaged corporations like Google and Apple would stand up to their bankers and demand they stop lending to Big Oil, and if normal citizens were protesting regularly inside and outside many of the 30,000 bank branches across the country—well, that pressure might produce a reaction. Or not—there’s only one way to find out, and we’re doing our best at Third Act.

But we need our leaders to be willing to dare as well. Instead of just repeating their bromides about the horror of it all, do something unexpected. At the moment, thanks to Joe Manchin, the Biden administration has little to show for its climate advocacy. It continues on with a business-more-or-less-as-usual approach: at Davos this week Biden’s climate envoy John Kerry was touting a new “buyer’s club” where big companies would buy more climate-friendly products. Ford pledged that by 2030 it would get…ten percent of its aluminum from low-carbon producers. That’s spinning the wheels.

Say, instead, the Biden crew really wanted to shake things up. They could, for instance, embrace the lawsuit from 21 young plaintiffs that demands climate action from the federal government. It’s been working its way through the federal judiciary for years—the Obama administration opposed it, and the Trump administration, predictably, did everything it could to squash the lawsuit. So far Biden’s DOJ has followed their lead. “There was zero shift when Biden took office, zero shift from the Trump administration,” the plaintiff’s lead lawyer told reporter Julia Rock. But why? Why not endorse the plaintiff’s contention that youth deserve a working climate system, and enter into negotiations to make it happen? It would, at the very least, put a new set of variables into play.

In the end, however, it’s not sensible to count on congresses or courts, CEOs or commanders-in-chief. We activists and organizers have to push in ways that really challenge the status quo, making full use of the panoply of tools that nonviolence provides. Instead, movements too often settle into an uneasy stasis of their own, repeating old actions even as they make at best marginal gains. If we want to pull our society out of its rut, we need to be the ones with the towchain and the (electric) F-150 pickup. I’m not sure it’s doable—vested interest and inertia have created a truly formidable quicksand. But I know we better try, and in new ways.

More news from around the world of climate and energy:

+The wonderful Svitlana Romanko, writing from besieged Ukraine, reminds us that Putin’s invasion offers us a real chance for change

Because I live on the front line, I see clearly that this is a decisive point in modern history. We can make the wrong turn back to fossil-fueled colonialism. Or we can properly start the green transition. The fight for Ukraine’s freedom can lead us to what science has told us we must do: stop burning coal, oil, and gas right now.

+An important new series of calculations shows just how much the world’s pension funds stand to lose if we follow science and keep coal, gas and oil in the ground:

The researchers estimated that existing oil and gas projects worth $1.4tn (£1.1tn) would lose their value if the world moved decisively to cut carbon emissions and limit global heating to 2C. By tracking many thousands of projects through 1.8m companies to their ultimate owners, the team found most of the losses would be borne by individual people through their pensions, investment funds and share holdings.

The analysis also found that financial institutions have $681bn of these potentially worthless assets on their balance sheets, more than the estimated $250-500bn of mispriced sub-prime housing assets that triggered the 2007-08 financial crisis.

+Iraq, ranked as one of the five countries on earth most vulnerable to climate change, is dealing with horrific sandstorms—and as the desert continues to dry out and heat up, experts say that by 2050 300 days a year could be marked by the apocalyptic scenes. The dauntless writer Alan Weisman adds some reflections of his own from the once Fertile Crescent. And here’s a truly fine diary on what it’s like to live through the killer heat waves afflicting the Indian subcontinent

4 p.m. Temperature: 41°C | Feels Like: 43°C

Madhu is frustrated. The 62-year-old grandmother just received news that government tankers meant to deliver water to her slum in southwestern Delhi have been canceled. The settlement hasn’t been recognized by the authorities, and as a consequence there’s no tap water available.

“The heat has left us to the mercy of the water mafia,” she says, referring to private dealers who charge between 100 rupees ($1.29) and 200 rupees per 20-liter jerrycan. Today’s delay means Madhu and her neighbors will have to spend hours standing in long lines the next day to secure extra water. It also means lost work hours and forcing children to skip school to make sure their families get enough to drink.

+A bright spot: Exxon failed once again in its efforts to stop a Massachusetts lawsuit attacking its long record of climate lies. With the Supreme Court controlled by radical reactionaries, state constitutions may afford the best chance of actually holding climate criminals accountable.

Here’s the next update of our epic nonviolent yarn—which, yes, does appear to be endless. If you want to read chapter 1-69 of The Other Cheek, the archive is here.

“Whose idea was this, exactly?” asked Allie, who was holding two crying babies. She was standing in a loft near Jack London Square in Oakland, a large room with exposed brick walls, and empty except for cameras, lights, and dozens of infants and their mothers.

“Kind of both of ours,” said Perry, who was trying to redirect a crawling baby back towards the long strip of white paper underneath the photographer’s lights.

“He’s being nice,” said MK, who was standing with her hands on her hips, simply watching. “And I should have known better. I have enough brothers and sisters and nieces and nephews back home. But I thought—babies, they’d just sit there.”

“I think we should have specified, like, ‘pre-crawling babies’ in the casting call,” said Perry.

“Yes, and it would have been good to have babies who didn’t pee, or at least made them wear diapers,” said Allie, holding one of the babies out at arm’s length.

“Excuse me,” a woman said. “Sonia has a Playmobil commercial at 3. Is this going to take much longer?”

“Parents!” said MK, shouting to be heard above the crying. “Please, pick up your babies once more, and bring them to the edge of the paper roll. When I say three, put them down as close to the center as you can reach, and then vanish. Maybe we’ll actually get one picture.”

Twenty seven mothers and three dads gathered their offspring and lined the edges of the backdrop. MK looked at the photographer, who nodded, and then MK said “one, two—remember to get out of the shot—three.” Parents pushed their infants towards the middle of the paper and then retreated. MK knelt at one edge, making faces at babies who tried to crawl away; Allie and Perry were on all fours, turning babies around as if helping turtles cross a road. The photographer fired off a bright flash, which only increased the howling, and then another, and another—she got four shots in before a third of the babies had exited the backdrop headed towards their parents. She gave MK a shrug and a thumbs up, and MK yelled “That’s it. That’s a wrap. Many thanks to all of you. We’re grateful. Your children are wonderful and will all have long and successful careers, I’m sure. Don’t forget to fill out the 1099 forms so we can pay you.”

Three hours later, they were sitting in a booth at Spice Monkey. It was only 4, but they were well into a pitcher of Hell Or High Watermelon Wheat Beer. Perry held the tablet out for them to see. “These are the first batch of digital uploads,” he said.

“Not so bad,” said Allie. “I’m assuming they can photoshop out the pee?”

“And maybe that baby putting his finger in the other baby’s eye,” said Perry.

“It’s not quite what I’d imagined,” said MK. “I was thinking of them all looking at the camera, like a picture from a school class. But I guess it kind of works with the theme.”

“What is the theme?” said Allie. “Actually, what is the point?”

“The point is, we wanted to have a campaign. Sort of like Matti’s thinktank has campaigns,” said MK. “So we thought and thought about the whole designer baby thing, and why we hated it so much, and the best we could come up with ‘They’re Good Enough Already.’”

“Like, we figured: people really like babies. They don’t care if they’re not perfect, they just seem to like them?” said Perry. “Although maybe if you could genetically engineer them to stay in one place...”

“And so I found a little forum for baby models, and I put out a little casting call—$75 for a baby. I figured we could get maybe five,” MK said.

“But it turns out there are a ton of parents who want their babies to be actors. We signed up like thirty, and we still had people sending us, like, headshots of their babies,” said Perry. “We had a mother who said her baby could sing and dance. Of course, she was six, so not exactly what we needed.”

“I have a bad feeling that these may be precisely the parents that would be signing up to improve their kids,” said MK. “I mean, if there was a gene for, like, dimples.”

“Anyway, it worked. It’s highly meme-able,” said Perry. “I mean, we can do the whole group—that’s pretty amazing. And we can take out four or five at a time, or even one or two. What about this guy on Instagram, and it says ‘Don’t mess with me.’ Or these guys saying ‘I’m smart enough, I’m good enough, and doggone it, people like me.’ That could go viral, no?”

“Yeah, I hope not viral in the other way,” said MK. “That was like a germ convention in there.”

Allie took a sip of her beer, and then set the glass aside. “I better not drink too much more,” she said. “I’ve got that date with Matti—this is the highest-carbon-footprint flirtation on record. But since I’ve flown out here, give me the latest download of what I’m trying to find out.”

“Ah,” said Perry, scrolling through his tablet. “I’ve got a list right here.”

__________

Surveillance Briefing re ALESSANDRA SALGADO

Agent Tina Reyes

Subject SALGADO ingressed NorCal region via Southwest Airlines Flt 602 originating Denver at 1044 hours. Subject SALGADO transited with one piece luggage via Uber vehicle CA License 6UAZ187 to 302 Webster St. Oakland, Apt 4, arriving 1256 hours.

Subject SALGADO was observed with Subject ALTERSON and Subject KHATOANE and approximately 30 naked babies in photography studio. (Forwarding photos to Child Victimization Interagency Task Force for analysis).

Subjects SALGADO, ALTERSON, and KHATOANE proceeded to Spice Monkey Restaurant and Bar, 1630 Oakland at 1440 hours, where waiter confirms they consumed one pitcher beer. Subjects ALTERSON and KHATOANE remained at premises till 1840 hours before returning to their apartment at 370 17th St. Subject SALGADO departed at 1640 hours in Uber CA license EPICFAI, arriving at restaurant The Oxford 195 S Murphy Ave Sunnyvale at 1802. Subject SALGADO was joined by subject PERSSON shortly after arrival. Agents ANDERSON and REYES secured nearby table, and using Super Ear Plus directional amplification device were able to overhear conversation. Topics included

1. Why a London pub in Silicon Valley? (Subject PERSSON speculates connection to fact that British have lots of investment capital but negligible programming skills and hence “have to come here. Or Bangalore.”)

2. Why drink called “Somewhere in the Time of Butterflies” and why drinks have funny names generally. (Drink in question arrived with frothy egg whites, and an edible butterfly garnish, but apparently not real butterfly)

3. Attempts by subject PERSSON to discern activities of subjects KHATOANE and ALTERSON relative to disparagement of genetic engineering commercialization. From conversation it appears subject PERSSON could be employing subject SALGADO to surveil new project VUKOVIC CENTER for FULLY HUMAN FUTURE (hereinafter VCFHF). Subject SALGADO stated that subjects KHATOANE and ALTERSON were entire staff of VCFHF and that they thought it was “creepy” to produce designer babies because babies were “good enough already.” Subject PERSSON stated that this was “really stupid, and typical of SGI,” an apparent reference to Colorado school where VUKOVIC once taught, and which several of the subjects attended. Subject PERSSON believes that babies are often not cute, and could be made to have significantly higher IQs. Also believes babies could be optimized for improved athletic performance, such as road cycling, which subject PERSSON pursues recreationally. Subject PERSSON pointed out that bikes have gotten better over the years, specifically referencing “carbon fiber frame sets,” and stated that if “bikes can get better, why can’t bicylists?” Subject SALGADO attempted to defuse argument by ordering further round of drinks.

4. Discussion by Subject PERSSON of fact that the only real Chinese food is available in China, and that it is not worth patronizing Chinese restaurants in America. Subject PERSSON described recent visit to several Peking Duck establishments in Beijing, as well as a street devoted to spicy crawfish restaurants, which only young couples patronize because spicy crawfish has a reputation as an aphrodisiac. Subject SALGADO attempted to redirect conversation to more general discussion of China, and why Subject PERSSON had visited recently. He explained that the Chinese had “no problem” with improving babies, and that “soon everyone will see what can be done.”

5. Discussion of cocktail called “Oxford Mule,” consisting according to menu of “Earl Grey-infused Reyka vodka, house-made ginger-lime elixir, and Jamaican bitters.” Subject PERSSON consumed several, explaining that Reyka vodka was made from Icelandic glacial water and that “you should like it” because it was “the world’s first green vodka,” produced using only geothermal heat. Subject SALGADO did not like it, saying she “liked her iced tea normal” because she was a Texan.

6. Discussion by subject PERSSON of something “I bet you don’t know anything about,” which is that European telecommunications companies Vodafone Germany and Nokia have erected a mobile phone network on the moon. Subject SALGADO confirmed that she was unaware that there was mobile phone service on the moon, noting that it was unavailable in certain rural regions of the United States where she had previously resided. She inquired what use it was to have a mobile phone network on the moon, given the absence of people and the fact that any people who were there were likely to be astronauts with dedicated communications channels. Subject PERSSON stated “you’ll see if you come to my New Year’s Eve party,” urging her to bring her “dumb friends” with her, an apparent reference to subjects KHATOANE and ALTERSON. Subject SALGADO stated that they were not dumb, and that she did not plan to attend his function. (This exchange may undermine theory that subject PERSSON employs subject SALGADO for surveillance purposes). Subject PERSSON stated that he was sorry he had paid for any plane tickets, and subject SALGADO agreed with this observation. Following meal, subject SALGADO declined invitation to attend showing of documentary about philosopher AYN RAND, on grounds that she no longer liked RAND’s philosophy. Subject PERSSON said that didn’t surprise him, not one bit. Subject SALGADO summoned an Uber vehicle CA license 9ROV815 and proceeded to San Francisco airport (SFO), where she boarded United Airlines 779 arriving Denver International Airport (DIA) at 1220 hours, where she was observed landing by representatives of Field Office Denver. She was picked up by a woman described as early 20s Caucasian, driving a Subaru registered to subject MARIA SANTOS. Subject PERSSON attended documentary by himself, and surveillance was curtailed.

   Filed by agent Minnie REYES, agent in charge, Cross-Agency Task Force on Tech Destabilization.

_________

“I conclusively blew it,” said Allie. “No way he’s asking me to fly out there again. And I don’t think I’d go even if he asked.” She was sitting in the shotgun seat of the Subaru, with Cass at the wheel, as they headed down I-25 towards Colorado Springs. The first snowflakes of the year were in the air.

“Believe me I get it,” said Cass. “There’s something about the combination of the prettiness and the arrogance–one or the other by themselves would be manageable, but together . . .”

“I wrote down everything I could remember on the plane,” Allie said. “Maybe it will be some help to Perry, but I doubt it. He and MK are definitely inside his head, though. He seemed crazy mad that they’d set up an institute of their own.”

“Well, it doesn’t seem any different than what he’s doing.”

“He thinks it is,” said Allie. “Because ‘at BTI we work with leaders of industry and government. We’re not just some kids blowing off steam.’”

“Was it a good dinner anyway?” asked Cass.

“It was fish and chips,” said Allie. “For a lot of money. Though not as much money as the sushi last time. I think I was already slipping down the list.”