Thanksgiving!

Even this year

There’s been a slightly longer than normal gap between these newsletters (not, I’m sure that anyone noticed) because my 94-year-old mother had a bad medical emergency—and then she recovered more or less miraculously, which is a good reminder that even in November of 2024 there are things to be thankful for.

This is a special edition of the newsletter aimed at those who subscribe for free. It’s completely and utterly fine to subscribe for free. I undertook this project because I think we’re in the most important few years in the most important story of the history of our species, and one of my parts is to spread information. (The other part is to organize action, and 2025 is going to be a banner year).

So if it would cause you financial stress to pay the modest and voluntary subscription fee, then don’t give it another thought. And if you could support this project without doing yourself or your family damage, then I’d be grateful.

And here’s a couple of other things that fall under the rubric of good news. You’ll notice that they’re on the same basic theme:

#Solar panels are now mandatory over large parking lots in France.

As Nick Hedley points out,

One additional benefit of solarised parking lots is that they provide shade for cars.

Even in the absence of mandates, these systems are growing in popularity in other parts of the world.

Solar carports come with higher upfront costs relative to rooftop-mounted systems, but there is more scope to place the panels in a way that boosts power output. As such, the cost per kilowatt hour is usually similar to rooftop installations, according to Anré Gustav Gous, managing director of ACES Africa.

Johan Pienaar, CEO at Eversolar, says solar carports make good use of space, are easy to maintain, and provide good yields because the panels can be positioned optimally.

(It’s also worth noting the size of the cars beneath those solar panels. Everything is easier before bloat sets in).

#And then there’s the news from Indonesia, one of the fastest growing economies on earth, where Bloomberg reports that the country’s new president plans to retire all the nation’s coal plants in the next fifteen years.

The country will also retire all other fossil fuel plants and add more than 75 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity over the same time frame, Prabowo Subianto said during the G-20 Summit in Brazil, according to a video statement on Wednesday. He also said Indonesia was optimistic it could achieve net zero emissions before 2050, a decade earlier than its existing target.

As a more technical analysis from the Lowy Institute explains, the country is at work improving its grid.

It is important to note that grid optimisation is overdue and needs to be prioritised for a successful energy transition. Infrastructure investments that are important for Indonesia’s economic competitiveness and sustainability should not be pre-characterised as state loss. Countries that are moving ahead with adding renewables into their energy portfolio, such as Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines, have placed significant investments in grid optimisation.

#And then there’s news that recycling efforts for cleantech are hitting their stride. If you’re worried what’s going to happen to the batteries in EVs (which, by the way, are lasting much longer than predicted), worry no more. They’re busily being repurposed for life as utility batteries:

Canada-based Moment Energy plans to start work on an EV battery repurposing ‘gigafactory’ in early 2025 after securing $20.3 million from the US Department of Energy.

The company already works with the likes of Mercedes Benz, and says EV batteries typically still have 80% of their original capacity when they’re removed from vehicles. The storage systems it produces are used for large power grids, microgrids, EV charging stations, and commercial customers.

#And one more. Nest, which makes those smart thermostats, is going to be enlisting hundreds of thousands of its Texas customers to build a “virtual powerplant.”

Texas may be the country’s oil and gas heartland, but it’s also the nation’s most dynamic market for clean energy. That’s made the state an epicenter for utility-scale wind, solar, and battery development — and, potentially, for ​“virtual power plants” that can turn homes and businesses into grid resources.

That’s what Renew Home and NRG Energy are banking on. Last week the companies announced their intention to create a 1-gigawatt virtual power plant in Texas by 2035 — the biggest in the country. The idea is to deploy and enlist hundreds of thousands of smart thermostats to shift when people use power to cool and heat buildings across Texas, and layer in other customer-owned assets like solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles over time.

“We plan to offer other devices, including EV chargers and batteries and other smart appliances,” said Ben Brown, CEO of Renew Home. But ​“smart thermostats are the quickest path to scale to provide immediate value to customers.”

Alert observers will see that what these have in common: they’re all driven by the rapid rise of cheap clean renewable power, mostly solar. That’s where good news is going to come from for the next stretch. With Trump’s ascension, and a series of other bad-for-climate elections around the world, the fossil fuel industry has purchased itself the commanding heights of politics. They think they’re sitting pretty. But economics is eroding their position, as surely as warm water is eroding the underside of the Thwaites glacier.

So brace yourself for more bad news from the world of official proceedings—like the deeply tepid “agreement” reached at the 29th edition of the global climate talks earlier this week in Baku, Azerbaijan. Hopes were not particularly high going in (the country’s president, and hence the official host of the proceedings, announced in his opening talk that fossil fuel was “a gift from the god”). As the talks staggered to their conclusion, with the developed world “promising” to start delivering $300 billion annually in climate aid by, um 2035, the reactions were worth listening to. To me, the most significant may have come from India:

India rejected the deal, with representative Chandni Raina stating it had been gavelled through without the country's approval. "This, in our opinion, will not address the enormity of the challenge we all face. Therefore, we oppose the adoption of this document," Raina said.

India, after all, is the most populous nation on earth, and the one whose energy future will write more of the climate story than any other nation in the years ahead. If Delhi (and Beijing) begin to assert more leadership in this process, the dead weight countries (led at this point by Saudi Arabia, but with Trump’s US sure to play a huge role going forward) may find themselves increasingly unable to dominate international discussions. True, there isn’t going to be the payout that the poor countries need and deserve—I can conceive of no short or medium-term political situation where the U.S. Congress ponies up serious money to help fund the energy transition going forward. But there will be ever-increasing pressure on the world’s financial institutions, from the countries that represent the future of the global economy, to move in an ever-greener direction.

That’s going to be the story to watch in the time ahead.

Meanwhile, just a heads-up that there may be another newsletter over the weekend. The scuttlebutt is that the Biden administration will release its findings on LNG exports on Friday, and if so I’ll try to cover what may be the last significant climate drama of the Biden years.

In other energy and climate news:

+California is producing so much sun and windpower that it may shut down the huge (and dangerous) natural gas storage facility at Aliso Canyon. As the state’s public utilities commission said last week:

Natural gas demand in California is currently on a downward trajectory due to California’s climate goals and state policies, including the procurement of historic amounts of renewable electricity and building decarbonization programs that enable customers to replace natural gas appliances with electric ones. The Proposed Decision creates a process for incremental reductions of Aliso Canyon inventory levels as natural gas demand and dependence on the facility declines, and if reliability and reasonable rates can be maintained.

This proposal also establishes for the first time a specific natural gas peak demand target. When the peak demand forecast for two years out decreases to 4,121 MMcfd and the biennial assessment shows that Aliso Canyon could be closed without jeopardizing reliability or just and reasonable rates, a proceeding will be opened to review the conclusions of the assessment and address any relevant issues related to permanent closure and decommissioning.

+Heat pumps are growing steadily, but a new toolkit offers policy makers a series of suggestions about how to make that growth much faster. Just to show you where we stand in the all-important heating sector, circa 2021

+A great Guardian profile of my favorite winter athlete, Minnesota’s Jessie Diggins, who last year was the greatest xc ski racer on earth, and who begins her new season Friday in Ruka Finland, and who has been a key part of that crucial climate action group Protect Our Winters. As Andy Cochrane says, she “refuses to shut up and ski.”

“Ultimately I’m not the senator who gets to vote, but I can make the case that it’s important,” says Diggins. “I can control the heart, dedication, and passion I put into it. Just because you can’t control the outcome doesn’t mean it’s not worth your time and effort.”

Since the election, POW is adjusting its agenda goals to meet Donald Trump’s incoming regime. “We’re regrouping to figure out what policy is tenable and reminding people that climate shouldn’t be political. On my last lobbying trip I met with some of the Republicans in the Climate Solution Caucus. That gave me hope. Progress is being made, even if it is slow. Meanwhile, I’m just trying to do the next right thing.”

The next right thing, Diggins says, is to continue using her voice beyond the confines of racing. “It’s important to be more than an athlete. To care passionately about climate. To not be perfect and still take action. People need sports heroes who are imperfect; they need to see reality. I sleep better at night because I’m using my platform for more than just winning.”

+Many tribal nations want to do large-scale renewable energy projects on their land, but the upfront costs in the permitting process are proving a real barrier. As Utility Dive reports

The Inflation Reduction Act authorized hundreds of billions in federal support to bolster clean energy projects nationwide – but interconnection queues remain backlogged, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s commercial readiness requirements can require project developers to pay $5 million to remain in the queue.

These delays and costs are felt acutely by tribal nations in the U.S., said Chéri Smith, CEO of the Alliance for Tribal Clean Energy. Utility-scale renewables projects are “big economic engines” that could replace the jobs lost by fossil fuel closures and provide reliable energy to remote and impoverished tribal communities, Smith said.

Many tribes see energy as “the last hope to regain true sovereignty,” she said. and the opportunity to sell power and participate in energy markets as a way to recover from the economic disruptions of deforestation, the damming of rivers, the near-extinction of the buffalo, and fossil fuel closures like the 2019 shutdown of the Kayenta coal mine.

That shutdown reduced the Hopi budget by around 80%. The Hopi Utility Corporation, with support from Inflation Reduction Act funding, is now looking to bring online 400 MW of solar and energy storage generation that would create jobs and provide first-time access power to around 900 homes on the reservation, but had to come up with millions to keep their place in the Arizona Public Service interconnection queue, said Smith.

+Fascinating and troubling story from Berkeley, where a measure to use economic pressure to move businesses off natural gas and toward electricity failed in this month’s election. The pros and cons of the proposed law are explained, butr the interesting part is the outsized role a local bagel bakery played in the opposition.

The owner said she wasn’t sure that there were “electric ovens capable of making a true New York-style bagel don’t exist. Before starting Boichik, she poked around the kitchens of Manhattan’s best bagel shops to see how they did it. She followed their lead exactly, spending $60,000 apiece on two revolving rack ovens. The way she explains it, each one contains five trays that rotate like a Ferris wheel, bringing the bagels close to a gas-fueled fire that heats them up just right.

“I don’t know of anyone who makes a great bagel in an electric oven,” she said.

Look, the changes being demanded to deal with the greatest problem our species has ever faced are not enormous—basically, to replace fossil fuel with renewable electricity. But the position of affluent Americans can’t be: “literally everything has to stay the same.” Maybe it would be interesting to figure out how to bake good bagels with an electric oven!

+If you’re in the DC area, an important night on December 3 when there will be a major rally for climate justice at Lisner Auditorium on the campus of George Washington University. Hearing rumors that the power duo of Jane Fonda and Roishetta Ozane will be on hand!

+The gifted filmmaker Josh Oppenheimer has a new movie in theaters next week. The End

is a story about what seems to be the last remaining human family on earth, as they hide in an ornate bunker built deep inside a salt mine after environmental collapse has destroyed society. Oh, and it’s also a sombre musical. George MacKay plays the naive young man who was born in this bunker. In his [short] 20 years of life, he has only heard stories of the outside world. He spends his days working on a dubious book with his father (Michael Shannon), a former energy tycoon, while his mother (Tilda Swinton) frets over the upkeep of the many priceless paintings and artworks adorning their walls. It’s the semblance of a normal (albeit affluent) life. But when a woman (Moses Ingram) from the outside arrives at their doorstep seeking refuge, the family’s delicate dynamic begins to crumble.

+And a shoutout to the young people of the Tucson Unified School District who convinced the local authorities to pass a pretty sweeping climate action plan this month

In a 3-2 vote Tuesday night, the TUSD board adopted a plan to cut its emissions in half by 2030 and to reach net-zero emissions by 2040. To do that, it will audit its greenhouse gas emissions (including Scope 1, 2, and 3) within one year; electrify its entire bus fleet by 2040 (while also incentivizing staff and students to walk, bike, or take public transit); fully electrify all its buildings by 2035; offer plant-based meal options daily by 2028; and reach net-zero food waste by 2040 (as well as phase out single-use plastics in its food service).

The climate plan also mandates that 95% of TUSD facilities have designated cooling room by 2027, as well as monitor all indoor and outdoor temperatures across campuses, as part of an Extreme Heat Preparedness Plan to adapt to Arizona’s rising temperatures; and that the district reduce its water use 25% by 2035, by implementing rainwater harvesting and drought-tolerant landscaping.

Which is one more way of saying, no fair giving up just yet. We have some fighting left to do! But it will wait till after the cranberry sauce. Enjoy y’all!