What Is An Emergency?

Thinking as calmly as possible about where we find ourselves

We are living through a week unlike any other in my lifetime; maybe the last truly comparable stretch was the bank closure that marked the start of the FDR administration, but then the president was there to tell Americans they had nothing to fear; now we have a president who can only insist we “take our medicine.” He is constantly hyping the fear, and he is doing it with the constant invocation of a word—”emergency”—designed to send us into ever-deeper panic.

So I’ve been doing my best to think as calmly about that word as I can, with the hope that it will offer at least a bit of mental pathway through this horror and perhaps point towards the exit.

Let’s start with one of the less-noticed executive orders of the past week—by no means the most important, though if it is carried out it will probably affect more square miles of the U.S. than any other. This is a memorandum from Brooke Rollins, the Secretary of Agriculture and hence the overseer of America’s vast National Forests. In it she declares “an emergency situation on America’s National Forest system lands.”

This emergency on our national forests, in the administration’s view, is

due to uncharacteristically severe wildfires, insect and disease outbreaks, invasive species, and other stressors whose impacts have been compounded by too little active management.

For example: • The 2023 Wildfire Hazard Potential for the Unites States report identifies 66,940,000 acres of NFS lands under a very high or high fire risk.

• Roughly 78,800,000 acres of NFS lands are already experiencing, or are at risk of experiencing, insect and disease infestations.

As a result, the Forest Service is commanded to dramatically increase the amount of logging on these forests, exempting them from the longstanding system of oversight and challenge from communities and tribes affected by logging. Forest supervisors have been told to increase the volume of timber offered for sale on our lands by at least 25 percent.

Now, as many of us have been patiently explaining for years, the biggest cause of increased fire on our forests is the dramatic increase in global temperatures that has extended fire season in California virtually year-round, and for extra months on either end across the West. The biggest infestation of insects has come from pine bark beetles, and that is directly tied to a fast-warming climate. As Cheryl Katz explained almost a decade ago:

Bark beetles are a natural part of the conifer forest life cycle, regularly flaring and fading like fireworks. But the scope and intensity in the past two decades is anything but normal, scientists say, in large part because rising temperatures are preventing the widespread winter die-off of beetle larvae, while also enhancing the beetles’ killing power. Not only are the insects expanding into new territory, they’re also hatching earlier and reproducing more frequently. New infestations become full-blown with astonishing speed, and the sheer numbers of beetles exceeds anything forest experts have seen before. [One expert] says he’s seen spruce beetle epidemics in Utah so intense that when the insects had killed all the trees, they began attacking telephone poles.

To the extent that forests needed thinning to reduce wildfire risk (and it’s not at all clear that it does), the Biden administration worked to get the effort underway, spending $4 billion on the work—in some areas they were ahead of schedule, and in others behind, but overall

“the scale of spending is unprecedented, said Courtney Schultz with Colorado State University. The forest policy expert said millions of acres had been through environmental review and were ready for work.

“If we really want to go big across the landscape – to reduce fuels enough to affect fire behavior and have some impact on communities – we need to be planning large projects,” she said.

Where the work was lagging, it was largely the result of a lack of bodies—something that will be considerably harder now that the Forest Service has laid off 3,400 workers. But at any rate, the new logging mandated under the ‘emergency declaration’ isn’t the careful thinning work that might reduce fire intensity—instead, the forest industry is getting access to what it really wants, large stands of big trees. It is, in other words, a money grab by vested interests that supported Trump’s campaign.

That new cutting will make climate change worse, because as we now understand that letting mature forests continue to grow is the best way to sequester carbon. Meanwhile, cutting down those forests will mean far fewer trees to hold back the increasing downpours that climate change is producing. (A new study released yesterday showed that even in areas of the West where climate change is drying out forests and increasing blazes, there’s also a big jump in deluges—what one expert called an “eye-popping.”) I remember sitting down with the chief of the Forest Service under Bill Clinton, almost three decades ago, and even then he said the Service’s internal data showed the greatest dollar value of the forestlands was water retention, not timber.

So, to summarize: we’ve invented an emergency where none exists. (The only thing even resembling an emergency in timber supply will come if we continue to tariff Canadian producers). We’ve abandoned most of the slow and patient work to deal with a problem, and replaced it with a boondoggle designed to increase short-term profits for Trump donors. That will juice the one actual emergency we do face worse—the rapid increase in global temperature—and it will make the effects of that emergency harder to deal with.

This pattern more or less holds across the board. Each “emergency” we’re supposedly dealing with is, at worst, a long-term problem that needs serious and patient work, work that had begun in earnest under the Biden administration. Fentanyl deaths and illegal border-crossings—which if you can remember back three weeks ago were the original “emergency” justifying tariffs on Canada and Mexico—had both been falling sharply in the last year. The “emergency” justifying tariffing every country on earth and also the penguins was the exact opposite of an emergency: a fifty-year hollowing out of industrial areas, which again had begun to reverse because of the IRA—specifically targeted by the Trump administration for reversal. As the Washington Post pointed out this week, a “stunning number” of battery and EV factories have been canceled in the last month, most of them in red states

According to data from Atlas Public Policy, a policy research group, more projects were canceled in the first quarter of 2025 than in the previous two years combined. Those cancellations include a $1 billion factory in Georgia that would have made thermal barriers for batteries and a $1.2 billion lithium-ion battery factory in Arizona.

“It’s hard at the moment to be a manufacturer in the U.S. given uncertainties on tariffs, tax credits and regulations,” said Tom Taylor, senior policy analyst at Atlas Public Policy. Hundreds of millions of dollars in additional investments appear to be stalled, he added, but haven’t been formally canceled yet.

“It’s working-class people in places like Georgia, North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan and Arizona that have seen some of these projects get canceled,” Keefe said. “And I can tell you who’s benefiting — China and other countries that are doubling down.”

I said before that there was one true emergency on our planet—its rapid heating. Now of course there’s another—the implosion of economies, likely to lead (if history is its usual guide) to military conflict. But I’d submit that the “emergency” that Trump is actually responding to—the one that motivated his Big Oil donors to donate half a billion dollars in the last election cycle—is the rapid increase in renewable energy deployment.

Reuters reported over the weekend that, for the first time in American history, less than half of electricity generated in March came from fossil fuels. “More power was instead generated using renewable sources such as wind and solar, which in March reached an all-time high of 83 terawatt hours.” It’s wonderful news, of course, heralding the chance at a new world. But that’s the crisis that Big Oil faces, and to fight it they’ve been willing to drag us all down.

It’s small comfort that the man they picked to do that job, Donald Trump, is so stupid that in the process of wrecking the American economy he’s actually putting big pressure on the oil industry too. He’s doing his best: alone among industries, fossil fuel was exempted from tariffs, in what the Guardian called “a clear sign of the president’s fealty to his big oil donors over the American people,” and yesterday he commanded the Department of Justice to try and stop states from suing the oil industry or enforcing the Climate Superfund laws that charge Exxon et al for the bridges and roads that taxpayers must constantly rebuild. (Trump comically called these efforts ‘extortion,’ even as he attempts to blackmail every country on earth, plus of course the penguins, with his tariffs). Trump’s even trying to boost coal this week, even though the data shows that 99 percent of the time it would be cheaper to build new renewables.

But the damage he’s doing to the world economy threatens to spill over to the oil industry—as the price of a barrel plummets, the chances of drilling new wells plummets too. According to the Times yesterday, Harold Hamm—Trump’s industry bundler—was wondering how to explain to the president that “when you get down to that $50 oil that you talked about, then you’re below the point that you’re going to drill, baby, drill.” Fossil fuel stocks have fallen sharply. Ha ha.

But in reality there’s one immediate and overwhelming emergency. It’s name is TrumpMuskVance, and it’s threatening to engulf almost everything in its unholy flames. People—even a few Senators (thank you Cory Booker)—have begun pulling the alarms, and the volunteer fire company has begun to respond (such thanks to all who came out for the Hands Off rallies this weekend). We’re going to need quick wits, courage, incredibly hard work, and some real luck to put out this moronic inferno—but that’s the job of being a citizen in 2025. You matter as a political actor, more than any of us ever have before; I’ll make sure you know of the opportunities to put your talents to use!

In other energy and climate news:

+March was…hot

In Europe, it was the hottest March ever recorded by a significant margin, said the Copernicus Climate Change Service, driving rainfall extremes across a continent warming faster than any other.

The world meanwhile saw the second-hottest March in the Copernicus dataset, sustaining a near-unbroken spell of record or near-record-breaking temperatures that has persisted since July 2023.

Since then, virtually every month has been at least 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than it was before the industrial revolution when humanity began burning massive amounts of coal, oil and gas.

+Notwithstanding the above, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced yesterday that he was defunding important climate research at Princeton because its findings were “contributing to a phenomenon known as ‘climate anxiety,’ which has increased significantly among America’s youth.” God knows it’s very important for governments not to do anything that might make people anxious.

+I assume everyone is aware—even though it’s not quite officially announced yet—that SunDay is set for Sept 20 and 21. If you’re in the Boston area, keep an eye out for details—a launch event will happen on April 26 at Old North Church. In the meantime, keep those suns coming! Sun of the week comes from Third Act Ohio Mary Beth Naim

+A new study indicates New York would be far better off electrifying homes rather than replacing and installing gas lines

Altogether, the eight major utilities serving gas in New York spent $2 billion in 2022 and 2023 to replace gas mains, according to a new research brief by the consulting firm Synapse Energy Economics for the environmental group Natural Resources Defense Council. They spent another $400 million connecting new customers to the gas system. The utilities plan to charge customers for that new fossil fuel infrastructure for decades to come, even though the state has committed to largely phasing out fossil fuel use by 2050.

Currently, though, state policies don’t leave utilities with many options. The companies are required by law to serve gas to customers who want it, and regulators have tasked them with eliminating leak-prone pipes as quickly as possible. A bill known as the NY HEAT Act, currently being debated in the state legislature, aims to make it easier for them to remove rather than replace them, instead switching customers to all-electric alternatives.

That estimate reflects the total cost of going electric, including grid upgrades, new appliances for each home, and weatherization where needed. Altogether, the all-electric route could save customers nearly $5 billion by 2050, the study finds.

+In coal-rich Wyoming, an unlikely combination of ranchers and enviros is trying to push rooftop solar. They failed this legislative session but they’re gaining ground and planning to try again. Efforts were led by Scott Heiner, leader of the state House’s Republican majority who worked in the oil industry most of his life

Heiner’s bill united climate change-deniers in the state’s Freedom Caucus with environmentalists eager to shift away from fossil fuels. The coalition included ranchers seeking ways to lower their costs, small businesses and municipal governments.

Climate change did not factor into his decision to bring the bill, Heiner told Inside Climate News. “I believe we should pursue electricity from sources that are reliable, economical, dispatchable and that our grid should be strong during the day and night, fair weather, or storm,” he said. “To do this, we need to diversify our energy portfolio and not pick winners or losers with subsidies or legislation that favors one source of electricity over another.”

+A crazy early-season heatwave is decimating crops in Central Asia, according to the Times of India

Temperatures across the month were up to 10 degrees Celsius (50 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter in the region than the pre-industrial average, according to World Weather Attribution, a coalition of scientists that studies the impact of climate change on extreme weather events, which conducted the research.

Climate change intensified the heatwave by about 4 degrees Celsius, the group said, though cautioned that figure "is likely an underestimate."

Meanwhile in Australia, an area of Queensland larger that Texas is being hammered by the most intense flooding the area has ever seen.

The seemingly endless plains of outback Queensland are so vast and remote as to boggle any attempts to visualise the scale of what is being described as one of the most devastating floods in living memory.

The Bureau of Meteorology said on Friday that the flooding had “severely impacted” more catchments spanning about 1m sq km since prolonged downpours began drenching south-west and central Queensland on 23 March.

Tiny, far-flung towns have been evacuated – in some, such as Adavale, every resident has departed. Others will remain cut off for weeks, despite the heavy rain having passed, as the deluge slowly makes way through flat and sodden country via slow moving rivers.

Along with the loss of property and damage to homes, farmers were bracing for the slowly receding water to reveal the extent of agricultural devastation.

The premier, David Crisafulli, told the Queensland parliament on Thursday afternoon that the number of livestock lost to flood water had gone past 150,000.

It’s even worse in the Congo, where hideous flooding has killed “dozens” in Kinshasha, a toll that’s likely to rise.

The floods have also left people across much of Kinshasa struggling with water shortages, after water treatment pumps in the city were themselves inundated.

The city's busiest road, which connects the centre with the international airport, is impassable, as is some of the motorway that connects the capital to the country's main port, Matadi.

At least one tributary leading off the Congo river - the N'djili river - had burst its banks, trapping many residents there, said Deputy President Jacquemain Shabani in a statement on Sunday.

It is said to be one of the more polluted rivers which Congolese scientists say contains high levels of faecal matter and other waste.

+As Ketan Joshi sagely explains, do not put much hope in the idea that AI is going to save the climate

+A really useful new series in Times is identifying interesting local and state-level climate fixes in all fifty states—the kind of thing we’re going to have to lean on for progress until we can reboot DC

In Idaho, for instance, about 500 homes in the nation’s capital are tied into a new geothermal network

The Idaho Statehouse, in Boise, is the only one in the United States to use geothermal heat. The heat even warms some sidewalks in the winter, to melt the snow, and raises the temperature in hot tubs.

+If you have the slightest doubt about who is going to win the EV sweepstakes and own the auto industry, watch this Youtube video with a young (and enthusiastic!) American influencer traveling to China to test drive the new luxury models from BYD. These cars turn 180 degrees in a parking space at the touch of a button. These cars literally dance.

More importantly, these cars don’t cause pollution. A heartening report from Kathmandu, one of the world’s smokiest cities, shows that the Nepali capital is rapidly cleaning its air as electric minibuses and cars start to dominate the local scence

More than 70% of four-wheeled passenger vehicles – largely cars and minibuses – imported into Nepal last year were electric, one of the highest rates in the world. The figure reflects a remarkable growth in the use of electric vehicles (EVs), which saw the country import more than 13,000 between July 2023 and 2024, up from about 250 in 2020-21.

Nepal’s government has set ambitious targets for wider take-up of EVs, with the aim that 90% of all private-vehicle sales and 60% of all four-wheeled public passenger vehicle sales will be electric by 2030.

And out on the frontiers of technology, one more piece of good news: researchers at UCLA and other institutions have come up with a film that can lower temperatures when applied to rooftops and other surfaces. According to National Geographic:

Their film consists of alternating layers of silica—glass—and hafnium dioxide, a compound used in the optics industry to coat lenses and mirrors. By fine-tuning the thickness of the individual layers, Raman and Fan created a film that was both highly reflective of visible light—so it wouldn’t warm up in the sun—and an excellent emitter of infrared radiation at just the right wavelengths to pass through the atmosphere unimpeded. If the film covered, say, the hood of a car, it would conduct heat away from the hood, cooling it without using any electricity.

In the spring of 2020, SkyCool installed film-coated panels on the roof of a California supermarket. Water flowing through the panels is cooled by the film and then pumped into the building’s conventional air conditioners and refrigerators, cooling their components and lowering the amount of electricity used to power them. Says Raman, “That adds up to around 15 to 20 percent in energy savings.”