Feb 27, 2022·edited Feb 27, 2022Liked by Bill McKibben
YES! This is a fantastic win-win idea. Brilliant non military, but very relevant response. Can we start a Third Act action to move this from a solo op-ed idea to something the White House is hearing about constantly?
Yes! I will write to Biden, my two senators (Tina Smith and Amy Klobuchar) and my Representative Betty McCollum and ask them to invoke the DPA for this purpose (Biden) and to urge Biden to do so (senators and representative). What a great idea!
Thank you, Bill, for this brilliant call to action! What a great way to fight against Putin and his corrupt petrostate autocrats. Getting millions of European homes to switch to clean, all-electric heat pumps for heating and cooling is such a clever way to reduce their dependence on Russian gas and cripple the Putin regime.
I love your idea of asking President Joe Biden to invoke the Defense Production Act to get American manufacturers to start producing electric heat pumps at scale, to lower costs and support a massive transition away from natural gas -- both in Europe and at home. Would it be helpful for us to call our representatives and ask them to support that proposal? Or should we put direct pressure on Biden for now?
Here in the U.S., installing heat pumps in our homes is also a wonderful way to fight against global warming AND the corrupt fossil fuel industry. We will be taking the plunge this year, to stop using natural gas in our homes — by replacing our dirty gas furnace with a clean heat pump heater/cooler. We also plan to replace our gas stove with an all-electric induction cooktop and convection oven -- as well as ditch our gas dryer for an electric one.
Replacing dirty natural gas appliances with clean all-electric appliances should be a priority for every household that can afford it. It will be a major topic in our upcoming "Electrify Everything" Meetup, hosted by our climate action network GreenChange.net this July, which will take us through the steps needed to electrify our lives and keep fossil fuels in the ground. Stay tuned.
Do the writing to Biden and your reps now! I did it to day AND I included my piece about firing the Post Master and getting someone who WILL buy EVs for the Postal Service instead .4MPG better ICE vehicles. This is an opportune time to mix defense, democracy and Climate Crisis together with cutting of all manner of fossil fuel subsidy and expansion!
Please do some research – contractors raised prices when incentives came out, they are taking all of the taxpayer funded money - And guess who’s laundering it for them? The homeowner.I’ll bet you 50 bucks that your bids will reflect a seven year pay back period, whether it’s heat pumps or solar panels That you get bids on.
Feb 27, 2022·edited Feb 28, 2022Liked by Bill McKibben
A great leader, with courage and vision could make this happen, but we lack visionary leadership. Much as massive grassroots protests in support of Ukraine has forced action by EU leaders, we need a massive grassroots movement in the US. Is there a way to have a joint declaration of support of this proposal by the membership of all environmental, humanitarian, and pro-democracy groups?
Superb idea! This could jumpstart the transformative moment our nascent heat pump industry needs. Yes, HVAC, but also HP water heaters! This move should help drive costs down, and help us implement the strategy that we should all be embracing: no new fossil fuel devices. It’s come to that. Let’s roll!
Drive costs down? Look what happened when incentive programs went into place – the bids went from 12 to 15,000, to $30-$35,000 !!!!
35k for a 4-ton Ground source heat pump!
I can buy all the equipment for eight to $10,000. 25 grand for labor? No.
These contractors are stealing taxpayer funded money. You’ll end up paying out of pocket the same amount you would have if there were no incentive programs.
Why didn’t the payback period Decrease when all these incentive programs went into place ? Because they increase the prices to keep the pay back period at seven years, the result is they keep all that money.
SAME FOR SOLAR PANELS
Many of them advertise the average price for a 4 ton system on their website, and they shamelessly list $30-$35,000. That’s without replacing any ductwork. We have a 1500 square-foot house that is very well insulated.
that is great...I'd love to see that number go way up for them and the rest of Europe...and of course they can provide aircon in the summer months which is becoming more of a necessity with global warming.
Among the advantages that Sweden, Norway and Finland have is abundant hydroelectricity generation. Many countries in Europe and here in the UK, where I live, would struggle to generate enough electricity, to replace gas combustion heating. So this isn't a transition which is likely to happen that quickly.
There's also the issue around there being enough people to install at a high rate.
Heat pumps available in the US still use HFC refrigerants with a global warming potential of 2,000 and higher, and our HVAC contractor here in Minnesota says non-HFC refrigerants won't be available here for a few years. The California PUC has determined that the average heat pump will leak 12 pounds of HFCs over the course of its lifetime, the majority of which come when the device is destroyed at the end of its useful life. That's the near-term climate impact of 23 metric tons of carbon dioxide. We want to convert to a heat pump as soon as possible but are really concerned about making the climate problem worse by converting now, with HFC refrigerants. From a climate standpoint, it seems like the better approach may be a couple of additional years of heating with gas and then switching to a non-HFC heat pump. This issue seems to have gotten lost in the big push for heat pumps.
Regulations approved In May by the Environmental Protection Agency could go a long way to help reduce those emissions by allowing the substitution of HFC-32, another hydrofluorocarbon refrigerant but one with significantly lower emissions, for HFC-410a.--So let's make sure to build those!
R-32 is definitely better than R-410a and is available in the US in window ACs but not in many larger systems. It still has a GWP of 675 and is a sightly flammable refrigerant. But there are lower GWP options out there. CO2 (R-744, GWP of 1) and propane (R-290, GWP ~1) are much better long term options and really should be the direction to go. The kind of units we should be making are R-290 split systems (air to air heat pumps) (being made currently in India and China) and R-290 and R-744 air to water heat pumps. There are room volume minimums when using R-290.
Yes there are plenty of low GWP options that are tested and ready to go with modest engineering adjustments. We can make this a win-win-win proposition by using this major investment to speed up the industrial changeover.
Can you say more about these options and how to pursue them? After seeing Bill's helpful response I checked with our contractor, whose company does a lot of heat pump installations, and he said that he can't yet stock R-32 systems and that it will be a while before he can.
CA just needs to enforce existing rules about collecting refrigerants at end of life. Also, the average residential heat pump doesn't hold 12 lbs. Much less. Mine is about 4lbs. Maybe you are talking about commercial?
UC Davis has a study showing the methane leakage is a greater threat than refrigerants from heat pumps. If you look at a graph of CO2e's, first is CO2, then methane, and a much smaller amount of refrigerants. You will definitely make things better by getting off of methane (NG) where leakages in the system are estimated from 3-10%.
CO2 heat pumps are available but really expensive.
"The results from this study show that residential heat pump installation, in place of natural gas furnaces will significantly reduce operational GHG emissions under a wide range of geographic and climatic conditions."
"Regulations approved In May by the Environmental Protection Agency could go a long way to help reduce those emissions by allowing the substitution of HFC-32, another hydrofluorocarbon refrigerant but one with significantly lower emissions, for HFC-410a."--obviously this is what we should be building, as is done in much of the rest of the world
We need to demonstrate that this can work to gain support in order to scale it through the Defense Production Act. Here are some fast action steps.
1. Raise a seed fund from supporters to purchase and ship heat pumps (or purchase them in Europe) for use in Europe now. Maybe get heat pump manufacturers to donate units.
2. Use a proven supply chain charity (for example, Direct Relief) to get them to homes in need and quickly installed.
3. Use success to support effort for larger Defense Production Act program.
I posted an article on these themes in “Let’s Be Energy Freedom Fighters” (see below) on Tuesday 3/8 on LinkedIn and it’s been picked up by some media.
***
"Let’s Be Energy Freedom Fighters"
While we wring our hands over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we are not powerless to make a difference. The Ukrainian people are fighting with their lives, but we can fight with how we choose to live.
The world’s dependence on oil and gas gives Putin the resources and leverage for his power grab. Oil and gas sales account for 60% of Russian exports and 30% of its federal budget. European countries rely upon Russian oil and gas for 20% to as much as 100% of their fuel. Thus, unlike the U.S., which derives 10% or less of its supplies from Russia, they can’t readily support Ukraine with a ban on imports from Russia.
So, what can we do in the U.S.? Let’s become Energy Freedom Fighters. If businesses and households in the U.S. reduce usage by 10% or more or use renewable alternatives, we can tilt the tables on the Russians and save at the gas pump. Maybe we could sell our saved energy to allies who could combine those supplies with their own conservation efforts so they too could ban Russian energy imports.
The battle for democracy is a battle for energy freedom. As consumers, we have power.
There is also something called Dual Fuel technology, where air-sourced heat pumps get backup heat when the temperatures fall below 40 degF. Hot water from gas, solar, or even wood stoves is pumped through a hydronic coil to augment the heat, rather than expensive electric strip heaters. I participated in their evaluation for major utilities and they are very effective.
YES! This is a fantastic win-win idea. Brilliant non military, but very relevant response. Can we start a Third Act action to move this from a solo op-ed idea to something the White House is hearing about constantly?
Yes! I will write to Biden, my two senators (Tina Smith and Amy Klobuchar) and my Representative Betty McCollum and ask them to invoke the DPA for this purpose (Biden) and to urge Biden to do so (senators and representative). What a great idea!
Nancy, tell Biden that we have used heatpumps since 40 to 50 years...
We could send you some old heatpumps that we have replaced.
We Will keep our insulation on our houses though..
Thank you, Bill, for this brilliant call to action! What a great way to fight against Putin and his corrupt petrostate autocrats. Getting millions of European homes to switch to clean, all-electric heat pumps for heating and cooling is such a clever way to reduce their dependence on Russian gas and cripple the Putin regime.
I love your idea of asking President Joe Biden to invoke the Defense Production Act to get American manufacturers to start producing electric heat pumps at scale, to lower costs and support a massive transition away from natural gas -- both in Europe and at home. Would it be helpful for us to call our representatives and ask them to support that proposal? Or should we put direct pressure on Biden for now?
Here in the U.S., installing heat pumps in our homes is also a wonderful way to fight against global warming AND the corrupt fossil fuel industry. We will be taking the plunge this year, to stop using natural gas in our homes — by replacing our dirty gas furnace with a clean heat pump heater/cooler. We also plan to replace our gas stove with an all-electric induction cooktop and convection oven -- as well as ditch our gas dryer for an electric one.
Replacing dirty natural gas appliances with clean all-electric appliances should be a priority for every household that can afford it. It will be a major topic in our upcoming "Electrify Everything" Meetup, hosted by our climate action network GreenChange.net this July, which will take us through the steps needed to electrify our lives and keep fossil fuels in the ground. Stay tuned.
Thank you, Bill, for all you do!
Do the writing to Biden and your reps now! I did it to day AND I included my piece about firing the Post Master and getting someone who WILL buy EVs for the Postal Service instead .4MPG better ICE vehicles. This is an opportune time to mix defense, democracy and Climate Crisis together with cutting of all manner of fossil fuel subsidy and expansion!
Please do some research – contractors raised prices when incentives came out, they are taking all of the taxpayer funded money - And guess who’s laundering it for them? The homeowner.I’ll bet you 50 bucks that your bids will reflect a seven year pay back period, whether it’s heat pumps or solar panels That you get bids on.
A great leader, with courage and vision could make this happen, but we lack visionary leadership. Much as massive grassroots protests in support of Ukraine has forced action by EU leaders, we need a massive grassroots movement in the US. Is there a way to have a joint declaration of support of this proposal by the membership of all environmental, humanitarian, and pro-democracy groups?
Superb idea! This could jumpstart the transformative moment our nascent heat pump industry needs. Yes, HVAC, but also HP water heaters! This move should help drive costs down, and help us implement the strategy that we should all be embracing: no new fossil fuel devices. It’s come to that. Let’s roll!
Drive costs down? Look what happened when incentive programs went into place – the bids went from 12 to 15,000, to $30-$35,000 !!!!
35k for a 4-ton Ground source heat pump!
I can buy all the equipment for eight to $10,000. 25 grand for labor? No.
These contractors are stealing taxpayer funded money. You’ll end up paying out of pocket the same amount you would have if there were no incentive programs.
Why didn’t the payback period Decrease when all these incentive programs went into place ? Because they increase the prices to keep the pay back period at seven years, the result is they keep all that money.
SAME FOR SOLAR PANELS
Many of them advertise the average price for a 4 ton system on their website, and they shamelessly list $30-$35,000. That’s without replacing any ductwork. We have a 1500 square-foot house that is very well insulated.
CRIMINAL
Heatpumps have integrated hot water with legionella programs - no need for two units.
For a brief description of heat pumps and how they work, see https://www.climateaction.center/e-building-hvac-heat-pump
I'll be adding more info about the cold weather designs and the HFC/Global Warming Potential issue in the next few weeks.
Tom, just look up any of the current suppliers, IVT, Thermia, Nibe etc etc.
They already have Product descriptions.
Great piece Bill. I was just finishing a piece on my blog: https://climatecareermoves.com/dont-just-hope-and-pray-this-is-the-time-to-commit-to-a-career-that-literally-takes-the-power-from-dictators/ when I got yours. I decided to put a heat pump image at the front and of course it won't load at the moment. I tagged you in the piece too! Keep up the good work and pressure on Biden. He's slow on the BIG OIL biz, more entrenched than we knew!
Heat pumps already dominate the heating market in some European countries, like Sweden... However, market share is still low in Germany, Poland, UK, IRL, etc. See: Market Penetration data in: https://climatecrocks.com/2022/03/07/want-to-push-back-on-russia-get-a-heat-pump/amp/
Also, here's a thesis describing how Sweden converted to heat pumps:
Johansson, Petter. “A Silent Revolution: The Swedish Transition towards Heat Pumps, 1970-2015.” KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 2017. http://kth.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1151181/FULLTEXT01.pdf.
Good link to KTH.
For non-Swedes, KTH is one of, of not the best, Swedish schools for M.Sc's.
(Hoppas du inte är Chalmerist...)
*And* heat pump water heaters.... which, when operated as serious thermal batteries, also offer a powerful way to make optimal use of intermittent renewables. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/353902434_Toward_Carbon-Free_Hot_Water_and_Industrial_Heat_with_Efficient_and_Flexible_Heat_Pumps
good point...I really like hybrid systems like heat pump assisted hot water.
Heat pumps have a track record in cold European climates. Over 40% of homes in Sweden and Finland are already heated by heat pumps and 60% in Norway https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-heat-pump-sales-are-starting-to-take-off-around-the-world
that is great...I'd love to see that number go way up for them and the rest of Europe...and of course they can provide aircon in the summer months which is becoming more of a necessity with global warming.
Among the advantages that Sweden, Norway and Finland have is abundant hydroelectricity generation. Many countries in Europe and here in the UK, where I live, would struggle to generate enough electricity, to replace gas combustion heating. So this isn't a transition which is likely to happen that quickly.
There's also the issue around there being enough people to install at a high rate.
All that said, it's an interesting concept.
Heat pumps available in the US still use HFC refrigerants with a global warming potential of 2,000 and higher, and our HVAC contractor here in Minnesota says non-HFC refrigerants won't be available here for a few years. The California PUC has determined that the average heat pump will leak 12 pounds of HFCs over the course of its lifetime, the majority of which come when the device is destroyed at the end of its useful life. That's the near-term climate impact of 23 metric tons of carbon dioxide. We want to convert to a heat pump as soon as possible but are really concerned about making the climate problem worse by converting now, with HFC refrigerants. From a climate standpoint, it seems like the better approach may be a couple of additional years of heating with gas and then switching to a non-HFC heat pump. This issue seems to have gotten lost in the big push for heat pumps.
Regulations approved In May by the Environmental Protection Agency could go a long way to help reduce those emissions by allowing the substitution of HFC-32, another hydrofluorocarbon refrigerant but one with significantly lower emissions, for HFC-410a.--So let's make sure to build those!
Thanks for raising a useful issue!
R-32 is definitely better than R-410a and is available in the US in window ACs but not in many larger systems. It still has a GWP of 675 and is a sightly flammable refrigerant. But there are lower GWP options out there. CO2 (R-744, GWP of 1) and propane (R-290, GWP ~1) are much better long term options and really should be the direction to go. The kind of units we should be making are R-290 split systems (air to air heat pumps) (being made currently in India and China) and R-290 and R-744 air to water heat pumps. There are room volume minimums when using R-290.
The IVT Aero uses R32 and that can be used for an entire house.
Thats just one example. There are probably more.
Yes there are plenty of low GWP options that are tested and ready to go with modest engineering adjustments. We can make this a win-win-win proposition by using this major investment to speed up the industrial changeover.
Can you say more about these options and how to pursue them? After seeing Bill's helpful response I checked with our contractor, whose company does a lot of heat pump installations, and he said that he can't yet stock R-32 systems and that it will be a while before he can.
CA just needs to enforce existing rules about collecting refrigerants at end of life. Also, the average residential heat pump doesn't hold 12 lbs. Much less. Mine is about 4lbs. Maybe you are talking about commercial?
UC Davis has a study showing the methane leakage is a greater threat than refrigerants from heat pumps. If you look at a graph of CO2e's, first is CO2, then methane, and a much smaller amount of refrigerants. You will definitely make things better by getting off of methane (NG) where leakages in the system are estimated from 3-10%.
CO2 heat pumps are available but really expensive.
UC Davis report showing that heat pumps as they are currently are better than using methane (NG)
Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Residential Heating Technologies in USA
https://wcec.ucdavis.edu/analysis-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-residential-heating-technologies-in-usa-2/
"The results from this study show that residential heat pump installation, in place of natural gas furnaces will significantly reduce operational GHG emissions under a wide range of geographic and climatic conditions."
Interesting. Bill McKibben, could you comment on this please.
"Regulations approved In May by the Environmental Protection Agency could go a long way to help reduce those emissions by allowing the substitution of HFC-32, another hydrofluorocarbon refrigerant but one with significantly lower emissions, for HFC-410a."--obviously this is what we should be building, as is done in much of the rest of the world
BILL- could you PLEASE check some facts on how countries that actually HAS BEEN using heatpumps for decades upon decades actually do ?
w-w-w.polarpumpen.se/kunskapsbanken/varmepump-kunskapsbank/sa-fungerar-varmepumpar/koldmedium-i-varmepump/
Bad link?
Many Euro heat pumps use propane as a refrigerant - still a green house gas, but not as bad as HFCs.
Could it be as much impact as the methane "flared" and otherwise dumped in fossil fuel processing? https://us2.campaign-archive.com/?u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&id=f145ea0a83&e=44153ff7f2
We need to demonstrate that this can work to gain support in order to scale it through the Defense Production Act. Here are some fast action steps.
1. Raise a seed fund from supporters to purchase and ship heat pumps (or purchase them in Europe) for use in Europe now. Maybe get heat pump manufacturers to donate units.
2. Use a proven supply chain charity (for example, Direct Relief) to get them to homes in need and quickly installed.
3. Use success to support effort for larger Defense Production Act program.
I posted an article on these themes in “Let’s Be Energy Freedom Fighters” (see below) on Tuesday 3/8 on LinkedIn and it’s been picked up by some media.
***
"Let’s Be Energy Freedom Fighters"
While we wring our hands over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we are not powerless to make a difference. The Ukrainian people are fighting with their lives, but we can fight with how we choose to live.
The world’s dependence on oil and gas gives Putin the resources and leverage for his power grab. Oil and gas sales account for 60% of Russian exports and 30% of its federal budget. European countries rely upon Russian oil and gas for 20% to as much as 100% of their fuel. Thus, unlike the U.S., which derives 10% or less of its supplies from Russia, they can’t readily support Ukraine with a ban on imports from Russia.
So, what can we do in the U.S.? Let’s become Energy Freedom Fighters. If businesses and households in the U.S. reduce usage by 10% or more or use renewable alternatives, we can tilt the tables on the Russians and save at the gas pump. Maybe we could sell our saved energy to allies who could combine those supplies with their own conservation efforts so they too could ban Russian energy imports.
The battle for democracy is a battle for energy freedom. As consumers, we have power.
***
Would you like to collaborate?
I would. Amen. I have the same opinion
And another thing not discussed is biogas, which could help offset the loss of Russian oil over time....but would require infrastruce.
According to EBA the current production in EU of bioCH4 is 3 bcm. To scale that to 35 bcm can be done until 2030.
There is also something called Dual Fuel technology, where air-sourced heat pumps get backup heat when the temperatures fall below 40 degF. Hot water from gas, solar, or even wood stoves is pumped through a hydronic coil to augment the heat, rather than expensive electric strip heaters. I participated in their evaluation for major utilities and they are very effective.
Heat pumps go down to 0 deg. now. 40 isn't a problem. For instance, Mitsubishi HyperHeat model.
Ari Melber's interview with Bill McKibben keyed me in to this article.
Yes but we have to organize a mass letter or petition for multiple organizations to send around. Not a fee individual letters
https://sign.moveon.org/petitions/heat-pumps-for-peace-in-ukraine-and-everywhere-else
"They're so popular in Europe that European manufacturers cannot keep up with demand."
I just spoke to the Company that delivered the heatpump we changed last spring.
They had NO issues with supplies, and they act on more markets than ours. They have a lot to do, but are by far not at capacity.
This is a great idea, but unfortunally lies/misconceptions Clouds its intents.
Check facts - don't become a trumpster and promote fake news.
good point.