As you probably know, Michael Mann posted the same "NOAA SST World (60S-60N)" chart recently. That chart does not reveal the truly frightening trend of ocean heat over the past 6 decades. Dr. Mann and two groups of scientists co-authored a paper with a "Global ocean heat content in the upper 2000 m" chart that clearly shows the 60-year ocean temperature trend in *2020* [1920 typo corrected] (https://bit.ly/Springer27Jan20) and again this year (https://bit.ly/Springer11Jan23). The charts shows ocean heat increasing at a rate four times greater since the 1990s as compared to the previous 30 years.
Another paper published last August (https://bit.ly/AGU29Aug21) concluded that "Earthshine" as measured on the dark side of the moon has decreased about 25% from 1998 to 2017. It is a complicated calculation, and I was initially told by one of my mentors that 25% is incorrect, but later he took that back and confirmed it is. indeed, a 25% reduction. The point is, as you allude over and over, things are disintegrating abruptly right under our noses.
Who would have thought Jim Hansens "Faustian Bargain" would become kitchen table conversation?
What we are observing is evidence that—to use a currently poignantly sad analogy—Mother Earth is lying on the ground in a puddle of blood—having been shot in the thigh—and her femoral artery is bleeding out. We should, metaphorically, be applying a tourniquet, but we are debating, metaphorically, whether guns or troubled teenage boys are the problem. In climate jargon, we need to apply immediate short term measures to strategically cool specific "hot spots" that will do the most good in the near term while we ramp up the long term remedies.
James Hansen et al. also published a pre-print (for peer review) "Global warming in the pipeline" as you most likely know. The ABSTRACT begins with the astonishing findings:
"Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C for doubled CO2 (2×CO2).... Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today’s GHG forcing alone – after slow feedbacks operate – is about 10°C."
In simples terms (for readers), even if we were to cease carbon emissions immediately (2022 in the Hansen's analysis) the global temperature trajectory would continue upward and level off at around 10°C in a few centuries—passing through 6.7°C in one hundred years (~2125) unless we employ some sort of albedo enhancement and carbon removal.
Whether or not peer review gives a nod or refutes Hansen's paper, I believe it is time to seriously look at all options (ordinary and extraordinary) adhering to scientific method rather than speculation and gut feelings. That includes all forms of cooling the ocean, atmosphere, particular regions, seasons, natural, bio-mimicry and technological, benign and potentially dangerous and search for yet unknown means of cooling. We will soon have to decide what to deploy and at what scale. We need research to know the acceptable limits.
There is another fear that is getting very little attention, except among marine biologists. The ocean is not only warming, it is becoming much more acidic. The plankton which form the base of the ocean food web are nearing the limits of what they can stand, and all the animals that eat them, and those who eat them in turn, are being affected. Visible symptoms so far are strangely emaciated seabirds and whales, but much of this is invisible to people. Animals that die at sea are usually consumed or simply sink. But sometime soon, people will start to ask - wait, where are all the whales? What happened to the fish? Why (gasp) why can't I breathe?!
The question to ask is, "where is the energy coming from". Doug is right, you should read Goodes' Earthshine paper from 2021. Two separate projects, Goodes' Project Earthshine and NASA's CERES project, using different methodologies, reached the same conclusion.
The Earth/s albedo has dimmed. Enough to double the rate of warming from 0.18C/decade to around 0.36C/decade.
This acceleration in the amount of energy pouring into the global ocean is reflected in string of "record breaking" ocean temperatures for the last 8 years. In conjunction with the unmasking of heat that was being hidden by the SOx particulate released from the old diesel fuels (went from 3.5% sulfur content to 0.5% in 2020) the next few years are going to be catastrophically hot.
“Now we have to organize like never before.” That’s it? That’s the solution? Our system has been rigged by SCOTUS decisions, such as Citizens United. We have been trying to organize like never before, for the last 40 years plus! We keep running into a wall of massive and unjust corporate power that continues to get more powerful because corporations have been granted our very inalienable rights and powers that only we were meant to have- to protect us from them! Their unlimited money bribes that has corrupted our political process is now their constitutionally protected right to free speech!!!
And you want “to organize like never before!”
Please consider system change instead. The movement of the people coalition for strategic system change is at movetoamend.org, and 350.org and Third Act can , and should sign on at movetoamend.org/organizations
Both organizations can and should run a continuous campaign demanding that our Reps support Pramila Jayapal’s HJR54, the We the People Amendment!
We can and must dismantle corporate power as we elevate the power of the people and our science based energy and economic policies, because that’s the ONLY WAY TO WIN, in time. Too little, too late is game over.
The clock is ticking and the EJ movement is spinning it’s wheels and getting nowhere- as the earth burns and our oceans boil.
Very alarming and extent, outcomes El Niño heating unknown. Keep us in the loop; I’d like to push Joe Manchin off a cliff but there are other obstructionists in so many ways. The oceans full of heat and with ice melting at the poles? The coral reefs dying and the wildlife battering from extreme temperatures ? Changing currents under glaciers? All so very upsetting, not to even mention the volume of plastics and waste in the oceans. Watched Kevin Costner’s “Waterworld” last evening. Lots of interesting fiction but not. Mostly the special effects but at the beginning watching Costner pee in a vessel of some kind and recycle for drinking immediately was impressive. Lots of interesting ideas by screenwriters from a while ago.
When Biden won in 2020 people breathed a sigh of "thank goodness", and his administration has done good work.
My statement at the time was this was a good first step, but what really needs to happen is a total revamping of our culture of individualism.
For instance, the idea of everyone driving an EV is absurd. Great for homeowners with the ability tocharge overnight, but where do apartment dwellers charge their vehicles? Really we have to move to massive public transportation with individuals using EVs for special circumstances.
The light at the end of the tunnel is the climate freight train headed our way.
These times call for drastic action. So far..... not so much.
Does anyone know of scholarships for sustainable MBA’s or other fields of sustainability? Sure seems like this is a career choice we should be incentivizing.
The primary image in this post is missing (image not found). Please repost WITH the image. The text suggests it is an important part of the authors message.
The first time I heard of climate change was a BBC documentary about James Lovelock in 1982. He had a very basic computer model where he predicted global heating and glacier melt as the canary in the coal mine and then runaway ocean acidification leading to extinction. He predicted the oceans conveyer belt or Gulf Stream slowing to such an extent that the world’s climate would dramatically shift. His solution at am that time was a global agreement to dismantle all nuclear powered submarines and repurpose them to heat cities. Limit consumption to ethical industries. Cull all cattle across the globe and stop all mass animal farming including methane spreading for grass yields and make sea farming illegal. And harness solar energy ethically.
Maybe we should just fucking Revolt already? Do we not have adequate communication technologies? Do we not have sufficient messaging/organization/mobilization capabilities? Or do we like to just bicker and bitch, but not actually DO anything? Just give 350.org another $50 and you are absolved. Sign these petitions because petitions really make a difference. Where is this 'Movement' which will overthrow the dipshits in Washington D.C? When will we Unite and fight the criminals who've hijacked our Democracy. When will we hold accountable the accomplices, the bastards, the treasonous cunts? I don't see any Revolution. But I do dream of the day we finally Revolution and in my dream it looks and sounds and feels like this: www.humbledeeds.com
I find it horrifying that such issues are kept tidily away from mainstream thought, and can only be found in “nerd niches” like this one. I’m truly appalled by the arguments I hear against the measures you suggest, especially the one that says “they’re just a swindle to earn environmentalists big money.” Bottom line: most people do not have the brains, time, or energy to understand these issues and contribute to meaningful change. I vow to speak strongly to such humans in their own language, even if their selfish voices of dissent are deflating.
I won't say what WE should do, but I myself believe in a very much simpler life with a much lower population. The last is long term, but anyone in the rich countries (Belgium in my case) can switch to a basic life with food, clothing and shelter only.
I'm against renewables because if applied to a scale that's effective, they will add another irrecoverable layer of environmental devastation. That much is evident.
Thank god for truth-tellers like you, Bill. The news is awful but your grasp and the heart you put into it are keeping us going - thank you so much.
As you probably know, Michael Mann posted the same "NOAA SST World (60S-60N)" chart recently. That chart does not reveal the truly frightening trend of ocean heat over the past 6 decades. Dr. Mann and two groups of scientists co-authored a paper with a "Global ocean heat content in the upper 2000 m" chart that clearly shows the 60-year ocean temperature trend in *2020* [1920 typo corrected] (https://bit.ly/Springer27Jan20) and again this year (https://bit.ly/Springer11Jan23). The charts shows ocean heat increasing at a rate four times greater since the 1990s as compared to the previous 30 years.
Another paper published last August (https://bit.ly/AGU29Aug21) concluded that "Earthshine" as measured on the dark side of the moon has decreased about 25% from 1998 to 2017. It is a complicated calculation, and I was initially told by one of my mentors that 25% is incorrect, but later he took that back and confirmed it is. indeed, a 25% reduction. The point is, as you allude over and over, things are disintegrating abruptly right under our noses.
Who would have thought Jim Hansens "Faustian Bargain" would become kitchen table conversation?
What we are observing is evidence that—to use a currently poignantly sad analogy—Mother Earth is lying on the ground in a puddle of blood—having been shot in the thigh—and her femoral artery is bleeding out. We should, metaphorically, be applying a tourniquet, but we are debating, metaphorically, whether guns or troubled teenage boys are the problem. In climate jargon, we need to apply immediate short term measures to strategically cool specific "hot spots" that will do the most good in the near term while we ramp up the long term remedies.
James Hansen et al. also published a pre-print (for peer review) "Global warming in the pipeline" as you most likely know. The ABSTRACT begins with the astonishing findings:
"Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C for doubled CO2 (2×CO2).... Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today’s GHG forcing alone – after slow feedbacks operate – is about 10°C."
In simples terms (for readers), even if we were to cease carbon emissions immediately (2022 in the Hansen's analysis) the global temperature trajectory would continue upward and level off at around 10°C in a few centuries—passing through 6.7°C in one hundred years (~2125) unless we employ some sort of albedo enhancement and carbon removal.
Whether or not peer review gives a nod or refutes Hansen's paper, I believe it is time to seriously look at all options (ordinary and extraordinary) adhering to scientific method rather than speculation and gut feelings. That includes all forms of cooling the ocean, atmosphere, particular regions, seasons, natural, bio-mimicry and technological, benign and potentially dangerous and search for yet unknown means of cooling. We will soon have to decide what to deploy and at what scale. We need research to know the acceptable limits.
There is another fear that is getting very little attention, except among marine biologists. The ocean is not only warming, it is becoming much more acidic. The plankton which form the base of the ocean food web are nearing the limits of what they can stand, and all the animals that eat them, and those who eat them in turn, are being affected. Visible symptoms so far are strangely emaciated seabirds and whales, but much of this is invisible to people. Animals that die at sea are usually consumed or simply sink. But sometime soon, people will start to ask - wait, where are all the whales? What happened to the fish? Why (gasp) why can't I breathe?!
There are days I’m discouraged and then you write. Things start to look up then
The question to ask is, "where is the energy coming from". Doug is right, you should read Goodes' Earthshine paper from 2021. Two separate projects, Goodes' Project Earthshine and NASA's CERES project, using different methodologies, reached the same conclusion.
The Earth/s albedo has dimmed. Enough to double the rate of warming from 0.18C/decade to around 0.36C/decade.
This acceleration in the amount of energy pouring into the global ocean is reflected in string of "record breaking" ocean temperatures for the last 8 years. In conjunction with the unmasking of heat that was being hidden by the SOx particulate released from the old diesel fuels (went from 3.5% sulfur content to 0.5% in 2020) the next few years are going to be catastrophically hot.
“Now we have to organize like never before.” That’s it? That’s the solution? Our system has been rigged by SCOTUS decisions, such as Citizens United. We have been trying to organize like never before, for the last 40 years plus! We keep running into a wall of massive and unjust corporate power that continues to get more powerful because corporations have been granted our very inalienable rights and powers that only we were meant to have- to protect us from them! Their unlimited money bribes that has corrupted our political process is now their constitutionally protected right to free speech!!!
And you want “to organize like never before!”
Please consider system change instead. The movement of the people coalition for strategic system change is at movetoamend.org, and 350.org and Third Act can , and should sign on at movetoamend.org/organizations
Both organizations can and should run a continuous campaign demanding that our Reps support Pramila Jayapal’s HJR54, the We the People Amendment!
We can and must dismantle corporate power as we elevate the power of the people and our science based energy and economic policies, because that’s the ONLY WAY TO WIN, in time. Too little, too late is game over.
The clock is ticking and the EJ movement is spinning it’s wheels and getting nowhere- as the earth burns and our oceans boil.
Let’s be smarter. Si se Puede!
Very alarming and extent, outcomes El Niño heating unknown. Keep us in the loop; I’d like to push Joe Manchin off a cliff but there are other obstructionists in so many ways. The oceans full of heat and with ice melting at the poles? The coral reefs dying and the wildlife battering from extreme temperatures ? Changing currents under glaciers? All so very upsetting, not to even mention the volume of plastics and waste in the oceans. Watched Kevin Costner’s “Waterworld” last evening. Lots of interesting fiction but not. Mostly the special effects but at the beginning watching Costner pee in a vessel of some kind and recycle for drinking immediately was impressive. Lots of interesting ideas by screenwriters from a while ago.
When Biden won in 2020 people breathed a sigh of "thank goodness", and his administration has done good work.
My statement at the time was this was a good first step, but what really needs to happen is a total revamping of our culture of individualism.
For instance, the idea of everyone driving an EV is absurd. Great for homeowners with the ability tocharge overnight, but where do apartment dwellers charge their vehicles? Really we have to move to massive public transportation with individuals using EVs for special circumstances.
The light at the end of the tunnel is the climate freight train headed our way.
These times call for drastic action. So far..... not so much.
So it goes.
Does anyone know of scholarships for sustainable MBA’s or other fields of sustainability? Sure seems like this is a career choice we should be incentivizing.
The primary image in this post is missing (image not found). Please repost WITH the image. The text suggests it is an important part of the authors message.
The first time I heard of climate change was a BBC documentary about James Lovelock in 1982. He had a very basic computer model where he predicted global heating and glacier melt as the canary in the coal mine and then runaway ocean acidification leading to extinction. He predicted the oceans conveyer belt or Gulf Stream slowing to such an extent that the world’s climate would dramatically shift. His solution at am that time was a global agreement to dismantle all nuclear powered submarines and repurpose them to heat cities. Limit consumption to ethical industries. Cull all cattle across the globe and stop all mass animal farming including methane spreading for grass yields and make sea farming illegal. And harness solar energy ethically.
Wait. So you are saying that in March of 2023, the AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF THE WATER WAS ALMOST 57 degrees Fahrenheit ABOVE NORMAL!?!
“ In March, sea surface temperatures off the east coast of North America were as much as 13.8C higher than the 1981-2011 average.”
So, instead of being say, 42 degrees Fahrenheit, it was 99 degrees Fahrenheit!??
PostingTHE temperatures would be helpful.
Like 27 of Croatia
Maybe we should just fucking Revolt already? Do we not have adequate communication technologies? Do we not have sufficient messaging/organization/mobilization capabilities? Or do we like to just bicker and bitch, but not actually DO anything? Just give 350.org another $50 and you are absolved. Sign these petitions because petitions really make a difference. Where is this 'Movement' which will overthrow the dipshits in Washington D.C? When will we Unite and fight the criminals who've hijacked our Democracy. When will we hold accountable the accomplices, the bastards, the treasonous cunts? I don't see any Revolution. But I do dream of the day we finally Revolution and in my dream it looks and sounds and feels like this: www.humbledeeds.com
I find it horrifying that such issues are kept tidily away from mainstream thought, and can only be found in “nerd niches” like this one. I’m truly appalled by the arguments I hear against the measures you suggest, especially the one that says “they’re just a swindle to earn environmentalists big money.” Bottom line: most people do not have the brains, time, or energy to understand these issues and contribute to meaningful change. I vow to speak strongly to such humans in their own language, even if their selfish voices of dissent are deflating.
I won't say what WE should do, but I myself believe in a very much simpler life with a much lower population. The last is long term, but anyone in the rich countries (Belgium in my case) can switch to a basic life with food, clothing and shelter only.
I'm against renewables because if applied to a scale that's effective, they will add another irrecoverable layer of environmental devastation. That much is evident.