Great update with some much needed good news; small bits and pieces falling into formation to produce massive change! Hope it all comes together before it is to late.
Bill. Just to echo your comments about solar installations in Africa. You are right --- solar module costs are lower in most of Africa than they are in the US. African electricity consumers are more concerned about security of supply and kWh cost than they are about going green, and this is selling solar systems. In Kenya, more than 250 MW of grid-connect commercial-industrial solar has been installed by factories and flower farms over the past 3 years --- that's almost 10% of the total national installed capacity. I'm managing a 1MW off-grid project in Maiduguri Nigeria (near Lake Chad!) where solar will deliver much lower costs of power to IOM then diesel generators. All over the continent, on and off grid, people are using solar. Its ubiquitous. The best thing is that competent young African engineers and business people are leading this charge.
If this explosion in solar sales had happened in the mid-to-late 90s it would have been something to celebrate, but it's 2024 so it's trivial and pointless. And as we know, Jeavon's paradox will mean that the additional power created by this explosion in sales will not replace fossil fuels, but will simply be added to the global power mix to support yet more unsustainable economic growth. No, sorry, but nothing to celebrate here. I'll save my celebrations for when I see significant reductions in atmospheric CO2. At this stage nothing else cuts it.
Re: “Earlier this year I think China was expecting a Trump scenario,” said Kate Logan, the associate director for climate at the Asia Society Policy Institute, a nonprofit group. “Now they’re basically thinking about what would four more years of sustained engagement and pressure look like from the United States.”
The notion of US pressure on China to do more to adopt renewable energy is ridiculous as is explained in the excellent report in NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/16/opinion/china-solar-climate.html) showing how China has established many times as much renewable energy as has the US, and in many ways, more than the entire rest of the world.
Imagine how much sooner and more universally solar, nuclear, geothermal ,wind, CCS, and other zero-net-CO2 technologies would be applied if countries had taxes on net CO2 emissions!
Refreshing to read this Bill. I can confirm this first hand as have extended family members living in that part of the world.
One thing is clear, market price and availability of solution needs to move in the direction where it become commercially possible for consumers to switch behaviour. Once it happens, people would not blink an eye even for services that have been treated as state's responsibility to provide for a long time.
You are so correct in your observation Bill about cheap household solar showing up everywhere, we were in Honduras and we saw very small modular solar arrays set up in people's yards and gardens a lot, more than rooftop solar, so yeah it makes sense how there and in other places like Pakistan as you wrote they aseem to be able to install this type of solar set up at low cost and mostly independent of professional installation services
Big fish eat little fish. When the small gods depart, the big gods move in. Big Solar is coming. Will it be any better than Big Oil was? We need to start looking at ways to control the savior we are creating.
Great update with some much needed good news; small bits and pieces falling into formation to produce massive change! Hope it all comes together before it is to late.
In the end, it’s the common folk changing things 👏. Individuals have more power to turn things around than they think.
What incredibly good news. Thank you for always keeping an eye out for all possibilities.
Bill. Just to echo your comments about solar installations in Africa. You are right --- solar module costs are lower in most of Africa than they are in the US. African electricity consumers are more concerned about security of supply and kWh cost than they are about going green, and this is selling solar systems. In Kenya, more than 250 MW of grid-connect commercial-industrial solar has been installed by factories and flower farms over the past 3 years --- that's almost 10% of the total national installed capacity. I'm managing a 1MW off-grid project in Maiduguri Nigeria (near Lake Chad!) where solar will deliver much lower costs of power to IOM then diesel generators. All over the continent, on and off grid, people are using solar. Its ubiquitous. The best thing is that competent young African engineers and business people are leading this charge.
Wonderful to hear! Send Bill some pics.
If this explosion in solar sales had happened in the mid-to-late 90s it would have been something to celebrate, but it's 2024 so it's trivial and pointless. And as we know, Jeavon's paradox will mean that the additional power created by this explosion in sales will not replace fossil fuels, but will simply be added to the global power mix to support yet more unsustainable economic growth. No, sorry, but nothing to celebrate here. I'll save my celebrations for when I see significant reductions in atmospheric CO2. At this stage nothing else cuts it.
Re: “Earlier this year I think China was expecting a Trump scenario,” said Kate Logan, the associate director for climate at the Asia Society Policy Institute, a nonprofit group. “Now they’re basically thinking about what would four more years of sustained engagement and pressure look like from the United States.”
The notion of US pressure on China to do more to adopt renewable energy is ridiculous as is explained in the excellent report in NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/16/opinion/china-solar-climate.html) showing how China has established many times as much renewable energy as has the US, and in many ways, more than the entire rest of the world.
Imagine how much sooner and more universally solar, nuclear, geothermal ,wind, CCS, and other zero-net-CO2 technologies would be applied if countries had taxes on net CO2 emissions!
Refreshing to read this Bill. I can confirm this first hand as have extended family members living in that part of the world.
One thing is clear, market price and availability of solution needs to move in the direction where it become commercially possible for consumers to switch behaviour. Once it happens, people would not blink an eye even for services that have been treated as state's responsibility to provide for a long time.
You are so correct in your observation Bill about cheap household solar showing up everywhere, we were in Honduras and we saw very small modular solar arrays set up in people's yards and gardens a lot, more than rooftop solar, so yeah it makes sense how there and in other places like Pakistan as you wrote they aseem to be able to install this type of solar set up at low cost and mostly independent of professional installation services
Really appreciate your sleuthing and then the connecting of dots. Good news indeed! And we imagine forward.
This is really good news.
Big fish eat little fish. When the small gods depart, the big gods move in. Big Solar is coming. Will it be any better than Big Oil was? We need to start looking at ways to control the savior we are creating.
An insane right winger?
Do “right wingers” donate to “ActBlue”, Bill?
Really, Buddy.
Loved that you sleuth the silent solar PV!
You may appreciate the first link in https://www.solarcookers.org/resources/download showing the numbers of Silent Solar Cookers.
While PV is the 'sexy' use of Sunny days, there is a mighty good ancillary use with passive but direct use in solar ovens and cookers too.
Makes me proud to be a solar guy. 💚🙏
Thank you, Bill, Great news on solar. Yes we need to watch carefully where our mutual funds are investing. It's easy to get complacent.