Silent Solar

Some really really good news you haven't heard

Not perhaps a week for good news—not with Donald Trump trying to initiate a pogrom in Ohio (and the Secret Service protecting him from a crazy rightwinger). Not with insane floods across central Europe where the blue Danube is now a raging brown monster, or in the Lake Chad region where hundreds are dead.

But there’s something else going on behind the scenes—silently. And it’s happening in places where people need it most.

Solar panels have, over the last months, suddenly gotten so cheap that they’re now appearing in massive numbers across much of the developing world. Without waiting for what are often moribund utilities to do the job, business and home owners are getting on with electrifying their lives, and doing it cleanly.

How do we know? Basically by good sleuthing. The first account I saw came from Azeem Azhar and Nathan Warren. They were looking at Pakistan, where power prices in the wake of Putin’s Ukraine invasion have soared so dramatically that sales of electricity have gone down ten percent in the last two years. That should cripple a country—”yet somehow it’s economy grew by two percent anyway.” Again, that should have been impossible: if there’s a truism, especially in the developing world, it’s that growth in energy use is tied to growth in economies. So what was happening? Basically, Pakistanis were buying huge quantities of very cheap Chinese solar panels and putting them up themselves. Pakistan, they reported, “has become the third-largest importer of Chinese solar modules, acquiring a staggering 13GW in the first half of this year alone.” This is particularly astonishing because the country’s entire official electricity generating capacity is only 46 GW. In other words:

in just six months, Pakistan imported solar capacity equivalent to 30% of its total electricity generation capacity - an absolutely staggering amount.

Energy analyst Dave Jones has gone to great lengths to track this spread on Google maps, finding building after building across the country with big new solar arrays on the roof. For middle-class Pakistanis, they can pay off the investment in a few years selling back power to the grid; in poor areas, things like tube wells for irrigation are now increasingly run on solar. This means not just a decline in natural gas use for centralized generation; it also means many noisy, dirty and expensive diesel generators that used to provide backup power are being turned off. The great solar analyst Jenny Chase at BNEF has found much the same thing. As Azhar and Warren point out,

by the end of the year, Pakistan’s distributed solar system could be nearing half the capacity of its entire grid! This isn’t just growth; it’s a silent revolution in energy production.

Were it just Pakistan, it would be a wonderful story but perhaps not definitive. But I had a long talk last week with Joel Nana, an analyst at Sustainable Energy Africa in Capetown who told a very similar story. He’s been leading a project to help countries across the continent deal with the increase in distributed generation, and he reports something similar happening in country after country—Zimbabwe, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, on and on.

“In Namibia we uncovered they have about 70 megawatts of distributed generation—that’s rooftop solar pv that’s about 11 percent of Namibia’s installed capacity. Eswatini, it’s an old figure, but they’re already at 30 megawatts and it’s a very small country. That’s about 15% of Eswatini’s installed capacity. South Africa is the biggest market, and it has five gigawatts of distributed solar—about 9 percent of South Africa’s installed capacity.”

“You will not see these numbers anywhere,” he said. “They’re not reported in national plans, not anywhere in continental statistics. No one knows about them. It’s only when you speak to the utilities,” and even they know mostly about the larger installations—there are doubtless far more hut-scale systems across Africa. People are driven by the high cost of electricity, but also by its unreliability—in much of the continent “load-shedding” is endemic, with diesel generators roaring on to compensate, at least at businesses solvent enough to afford it. But diesel fuel is expensive, and generators are hard to maintain. PV is “a no-brainer for most businesses if not all,” he said. “The prices just make sense. The African market is a huge market for some of the Chinese manufacturers, so we have availability—huge availability. The market is flooded with panels from China.”

All this, he points out, is happening without any help from governments, and except for South Africa without financing from banks, who haven’t yet learned how to evaluate the credit risk. The continent needs more trained solar installers, and coordinated standards. On the other hand, many nations probably won’t need the big and expensive increases in bulk electric supply they’ve been predicting. And Nana and his colleagues are working hard to figure out how to make the most of this—how to turn solar pv into real economic assets for entire communities, through practices like net metering.

This is extraordinary news, in large part because it’s happening in places where people most need power—I’ve spent a fair amount of time in Africa looking at communities getting their very first power thanks to the sun. (And I’m headed back as soon as the election is over, so watch this space for more). This won’t just transform the climate, it will transform lives.

It comes on top of more visible good news—the IEA said this weak that oil demand around the world is softening because of “surging” sales of electric vehicles. In China, demand for gasoline will peak this year or next and then decline sharply. Britain, where the coal era was born, will close it’s last coal-fired power plant at the end of this month, while California—arguably earth’s most modern economy—has managed to weather its worst heat waves ever without blackouts this simmer thanks to ever-growing batteries of…batteries. (The state’s one big recent blackout came when a gas-fired plant went down in Pasadena). Hey, photovoltaics are getting so sensitive that they’re starting to be useful indoors, where they could replace small disposable batteries.

But nothing beats the idea that solar panels are suddenly sprouting, as if by magic, precisely where they’re needed most. If we can get there fast enough—before we’re overwhelmed by droughts and floods—then a sunny new world is entirely possible.

In other energy and climate news:

+The superb investigative reporters at ProPublica have an exposé about an Oregon utility that claimed to be going green by turning to cow manure and other sources of gas but…

Seven years on, the utility has not delivered on its clean-energy sales pitch. NW Natural has more retail gas customers than ever. It supplies them little, if any, renewable natural gas. It sells them as much fossil natural gas in an average year as it did before. And it wages steady battles in the courts and in local city halls to keep the gas flowing.

Internal industry documents obtained by ProPublica, coupled with an analysis of regulatory filings and testimony before the state Legislature, reveal how NW Natural pursued an approach that perpetuated its core fossil fuel business while the company painted a picture of going green.

“The story they’re telling us is simply not possible,” said former state Rep. Phil Barnhart, a Democrat who voted for some of the company’s legislation when in office.

Another exposè, this one from the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, uncovers how big banks are sending money to oil companies but in disguise, so activists won’t get angry at them. It didn’t work.

Citibank helped arrange a chain of deals that meant Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) received huge payouts as a major shareholder of chemicals companies Borouge and Fertiglobe.

“So on paper, the bank lent some money to a chemicals business,” a banker with knowledge of the deals said. “But in reality they handed billions to one of the largest oil producers.

“If you try and get a loan approved to an oil major, you get asked all sorts of questions: ‘Blah, blah, the ESG [environmental, social and governance] ranking of the borrower.’ Basically, it’s a huge pain to get organised. So if you want to lend to a chemicals company instead, it’s much easier.”

On a related note, Alastair Marsh reports that some of the big financial houses are just plain abandoning their ballyhooed climate targets.

A recent Bloomberg Intelligence analysis said most US companies have “significantly scaled back” discussions of ESG and similar topics on quarterly earnings calls. And for those whose goals appear increasingly out of reach, the temptation to keep quiet is even greater.

“It is increasingly challenging to address the nuances of complex topics like the energy transition because of the growing segregation into ideological camps, which in turn reduces the space for honest practical dialogue,” said Adam Matthews, chief responsible investment officer at the Church of England Pensions Board, which manages over £3 billion ($3.9 billion) of assets.

+The election’s not just about how green America will be—a group of experts surveyed by the Times suggests it will probably determine what China does too

But if former President Donald J. Trump returns to the White House, he is expected to withdraw the United States from the global fight against climate change, as he did during his first term, and release any pressure on China to step up its efforts.

“That would at best deflate the momentum on global climate negotiations,” said Kelly Sims Gallagher, the dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.

“Earlier this year I think China was expecting a Trump scenario,” said Kate Logan, the associate director for climate at the Asia Society Policy Institute, a nonprofit group. “Now they’re basically thinking about what would four more years of sustained engagement and pressure look like from the United States.”

+Check out the trailer for the new video Arresting Science, which is about climate researcher and brave civil disobedience activist Peter Kalmus.

+Oil Change International reports that the number of lawsuits being filed against oil companies has tripled in recent years.

86 climate lawsuits have been filed against the world’s largest oil, gas, and coal producing corporations – including BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies – with two in five cases involving claims for compensation for climate change damages linked to fossil fuels. The number of cases filed against fossil fuel companies each year has nearly tripled since the Paris Agreement was reached in 2015, according to a new report, titled Big Oil in Court – The latest trends in climate litigation against fossil fuel companies by Oil Change International and Zero Carbon Analytics.

The analysis reveals the intensifying legal pressure on fossil fuel corporations responsible for 69% of human-caused carbon dioxide emissions, the main driver of the climate crisis. The report is the first in-depth analysis of the escalating wave of climate litigation aimed at fossil fuel giants.

+If you’re keeping score, and I am, we’re right at the point where climate scientists said we should know if the big spikes in heat these past represented a big upward shift in our temperature trajectory. Respected scientist Zeke Hausfather offers his take and it is double plus ungood.

Rather than falling out of record territories, global temperatures have remained highly elevated going into the summer and fall months. We saw new temperature records in May and June, and tied the exceptional heat of 2023 in July and August. Its only in September – which shattered prior records by 0.5C in 2023 – that we will very likely see global temperatures falling out of record territory…

Many of us hoped that if 2024 returned to a more predictable post-El-Nino regime it would provide evidence that what happened in the second half of 2023 was a blip – some short lived internal variability that drove a spike in global temperatures but did not persist.

However, with temperatures remaining elevated into September 2024, its looking increasingly less likely that last year’s elevated temperatures were a mostly transient phenomenon. Rather, some combination of forcings or changes in feedbacks may be driving higher global temperatures going forward.

+In his new and useful newsletter, Michael Thomas says Texas will add more clean energy to its grid than any other state this year

Texas is benefitting from what some energy analysts consider the country’s best grid interconnection process.

While grid operators across the country have been bogged down by delays and lengthy studies, ERCOT has adopted a “connect and manage” approach that has enabled it to add more capacity than any grid over the last few years.

+The insanity of the UK’s plans for a vast buildout of biomass energy production is highlighted by the fact that it imagines it might someday be importing wood chips from…North Korea

+The US Postal Service fought hard to keep from getting electric trucks, but now that Congress has forced them to, drivers and customers love the quiet and efficient new vehicles. As Jameson Dow reports

those old vehicles suffer from myriad problems. Not only do they only get 9 miles per gallon, they’re also noisy, smelly (I have to close my window every day when the mail truck comes around), have no air conditioning, hard to stand up in, and their only safety feature is mirrors that constantly fall out of alignment. AP also points out that nearly 100 LLVs caught fire last year – a common event when it comes to internal combustion vehicles.

+Bloomberg has added up how much mining we’ll need to do to supply the renewable energy revolution—and the answer will shock you

Annual demand for energy-transition metals will grow fivefold by mid-century from 2023 levels under more aggressive action, according to BloombergNEF.

Yet that doesn’t mean we need to extract more stuff — in fact, we need less. While EVs and clean energy infrastructure will mainly consume electricity and require lots of metal, the total amount of materials the world mines will fall. Specifically, we'll need almost no coal — which still contributes significant revenues to mining companies.

In fact, all the refined metals needed to reach net zero by 2050 will add up to less than the amount of coal mined in 2023 alone

+In collaboration with the CVS Healthcare Foundation, the American Lung Association has a new plan to help people understand the link between air pollution and asthma and other lung disease. This is an important mainstreaming of the public health argument against fossil fuel burning. The ALA plans to:

1. Equip healthcare providers with tools to improve care of patients with lung disease during poor air quality days.

2. Empower people with lung disease to take steps that reduce their risk of health complications during days with unhealthy air.

3. Utilize local air quality data to develop education programs and promote policies to protect lung health.

+The oft-strained relationship between labor and environmentalists took a big step forward last week, when the annual convention of the International Association of Machinists adopted an important series of new pledges

After considering new findings, members passed a resolution to include the concept of “Just Transition.” This concept asserts that workers displaced from jobs by climate change should receive supplemental income, insurance, and pension benefits. It aims to address and correct the inequities faced by people of color who have been systematically excluded from jobs in the energy sector. Additionally, it seeks to support their communities, which have been disproportionately impacted by the presence of highly polluting power plants.

The resolution also includes language to ensure that green technology used in America is made in America and by IAM members. This commitment to ‘Just Transition’ underscores IAM’s dedication to social justice and equality in the face of climate change.

The IAM’s proactive stance on climate change is a testament to its commitment to not only preserving the planet but also securing a prosperous future for its members. By embracing innovative solutions and advocating for sustainable industrial practices, IAM is leading by example in the labor movement’s fight against climate change. This advocacy involves not only implementing green technologies within IAM-represented industries but also influencing and encouraging key players to adopt and advocate sustainable practices.

+One doesn’t usually turn to ultra-rightwing Newsmax for environmental coverage, but Paul deLespinasse has an interesting column about what he calls a developing global electric grid

Connections between various European countries are already operating, as are long-distance lines in North America, China, Africa and South America.

Plans are afoot for a connection bringing solar energy from sunny Morocco to the United Kingdom. A 2,600 mile subsea cable will carry solar energy from Australia to Singapore. And a 9,300-mile line between the Chilean desert and China is being seriously discussed.

All of these existing and projected grids will be elements of the universal grid when the logic of the situation has taken its full course and they get connected together.

+From Reveal, a very fine nationally syndicated podcast about the ways that so many of us inadvertently end up financing fossil fuel expansion

Reveal reporter Jonathan Jones was working on a story about a massive coal plant expansion in Montana when he wondered who was bankrolling the project. It turns out a major shareholder of the energy company driving the project was The Vanguard Group, the investment firm where he happens to have his retirement savings. 

This discovery put Jones on a quest to find out why Vanguard and other asset managers continue to invest in fossil fuels at a time when we need to burn less oil, gas, and coal.