I have long thought that the Homo sapiens sapiens experiment made a disastrously wrong turn somewhere along its trajectory. "One of the mysteries of Hubble’s universe is why we haven’t found other intelligent species." No longer certain that we will be able to continue to apply that adjective to our own for much longer.
Bill, thank you. Thank you. I'm from Altadena but had to leave in 2011. Altadena is my heart's home, and the wild mountains at the edge of town are my favorite place in the world. I've been reading you since I moved away -- you're the one who really showed me the level of danger to my mountains & my world and inspired me to become a climate activist -- but I had no idea that you, too, were from Altadena. Your short essay is the first attempt I've seen to put these fires into context. When I reached the last line, I cried for the first time since my city was leveled (I guess I've been in shock). Thank you so much for everything you do to promote a world that values intelligence and the way you wake up every morning ready again to love the world with all your might. Thank you. Thank you.
You work so unbelievably hard, Bill, and I cannot thank you enough. But it's also okay to take time to take care of yourself. Please do. Take time outside. Go remind yourself what all the work is for. And if we can do anything to lend you a little emotional support, let us know.
Milton Humason was my great-uncle (my Dad's uncle). He was not only an astronomer at Mount Wilson, but he also was the muleskinner who hauled materials up the mountain by mules to build the observatory. Milton did a lot of research in his early years of working at the observatory that Hubble took credit for simply because Milton was never educated past the 7th grade. It wasn't until later that Milton started receiving some recognition for his work, but Hubble still gained most of the credit and spotlight. An excellent book about Milton is "The Muleskinner and the Stars: The Life and Times of Milton La Salle Humason, Astronomer" by Ronald Voller.
My grandmother, Beatrice Mayberry Humason, also worked at Mount Wilson Observatory in the 1920s doing sunspot studies.
> That’s because they understand (correctly) that this science is “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry.”
The biggest shame is that we need so much science to continually hit us on the head to keep the fight for the climate going. By now, it is absolutely obvious what's happening and at least the major steps necessary are also obvious, and yet we have to "waste" a lot of time continually producing new results just to get people to listen. The shouting about the climate is necessary, but reflects the poor state of the world's intertwined societies.
And… the execrable state of the media, who breathlessly report on fires, floods, and hurricanes, and do not ONCE say the words “climate change.” Or if they (VERY RARELY) do, say those words in casual passing, often while noting how nice the extra spring heat is for our flower gardens. Sigh. ☹️
True. The media are also to blame, and that's expected. Even the BBC, which does have a sizable section regarding climate change and which did mention it in passing regarding the fires, they typically promote the narrative that everything is changing with the required magnitude and downplay the immediate seriousness of the problem.
After all, climate change is part of a larger problem where our spirituality has been replaced by the chasing of the sensational, whether it be in consumption or information, and that larger (non)-ethic is a component of modern media's very survival...
My family started moving into the LA area in the 1870s and 80s. My great grandfather helped start the biology program at LA Normal school and then when it became UCLA he was part of the move of the campus to Westwood. Some of the data he and his son (who was dean of zoology at UC Berkeley--Loye and Alden Miller) collected is now being used to look at changes caused by climate change (The Grinnell Resurvey Project). Their data is being used to confirm climate change.
However, it is important to stick to the facts. There is pretty good evidence that climate change will reduce the pressure gradient between the cold high desert basin and the low coastal areas with the high mountain in-between and thus reduce, not increase the Santa Ana winds. Your "perhaps" is not data or model related. It is not ethical to claim we know or even models show that Santa Anas are or will be worse. It is not ethical because the human cause is where people built--not the wind.
Here is what we do know. Humans caused the disaster. They caused it by building where there should not. Topanga, Altadena, the Palisades--they are not defendable in 80 mph winds with 5% humidity. This is caused by libertarian type attitudes against any rules that would stop the real estate industry from building in places that should not have homes at all. It was also caused by people who think living in suburbs near wild lands is a desirable "living in nature". When it is really destroying nature. People who want to preserve nature need to live densely in apartment buildings--not on a winding road in the hills and canyons.
Climate change will add hotter days and drier fall and winters -when the wind comes. The alternation with atmospheric storms will create a ton of fuel--the current fires are in part from the record rain making fuel. That wind has always been 5% humidity, always been strong, always been full of static electricity so you can't touch metal without a shock. Writers in LA have been talking about this for 100 years (Joan Didion et al)
What changed was too many people creating a new ecotone that will not survive--the suburban-chaparral zone. No amount of men on ropes working down slope you can't stand on and clearing brush will do much. No amount of clearing back from homes. No amount of goats. Controlled burns cannot happen in places with homes. The more fire is suppressed--the more fuel is left--until fire must happen.
In the 1880 to late 1930s there was a popular movement to build resorts, cabins and homes in and on the high wild areas in greater LA. Huge floods, fires, and incessant of rates of erosion--landslides -- that laid waste to these ventures also demonstrated that the mountains and canyons could not be readily domesticated. In the 1940s Angelenos realized that the efforts to harness the fantasy of the frontier were Sisyphean in nature. It was no longer a priority to be pursued. That was forgotten over time.
You can see the foundations of some of those places. But most is gone. My grandparents and great grandparents used to talk sadly about places that had cabins and were washed out or burned. Like Icehouse Canyon or Mount Lowe.
Over time, the real estate ponzi-type schemes (it is always more valuable until you are the person who owns it when it burns) and later the Reagan influenced movements against "regulation" started building. What were basically shacks in remote areas became valuable land. Even though everyone knew it burned all the time--that is one reason land was cheap.
One example, Louis T. Busch and Associates pushed to develop the burning areas in Malibu starting in 1949. In 1956, a fire burned 35,000 acres and destroyed 250 structures. Today is basically the same sort of fire, but with more people and homes to burn. Busch died in 2015. People like him and people who bought from him--all over LA-- are why LA is burning today. Most homes that burned were built between 1950 and today.
So, in a nutshell. No, climate change does not cause and probably will not increase Santa Anas. The wild areas of Southern California are evolved to burn. The wild areas are too steep and the canyons too narrow to safely build on. Humans caused the disaster. But not that way you are implying. People who want to "live where they want" caused it. People who wanted to buy cheap ranch land and make money caused it. People who don't want the "government regulations" caused it. In 1930 Fredrick Law Olmsted proposed a plan to make much of what is burning in the Palisades fire parks that would be off limits to housing. That was scrapped.
Thank you for this comprehensive essay and particularly for its focus on the losses in the Eaton fire. I am currently evacuated I’m from my home in West Pasadena and my son and his family from theirs in Altadena. My son’s home on the Western edge is still here, but their school and community are gone. Your memories of Altadena are touching because you childhood memories match the current losses being processed by my grandchildren and their parents. A community has been leveled by a wind storm and firestorm I had never experienced in 75 years living in the San Gabriel Valley. My neighborhood isn’t in a fire zone, I’ve never been evacuated in the 45 years have lived here. Everything you have written is so appropriate to these times. Progress does seem to be making our species stupider about the long term.
Thanks, as always! I've been following the LA fires closely since I grew up in Glendale, which is rather close to Altadena. I don't live in CA anymore, but I have lots of fond memories about the area. I appreciate you providing a link to the Nature paper that discusses displacement of the polar vortex due to Arctic warming. I read it when it first appeared, but it is worth rereading now. The conjunction of the horrible events in LA with the return of the Trump administration leaves me close to despair, but the fight against climate change must go on!
Can the climate monitoring research move to other countries? Maybe Europe? It is hard enough to keep people focused when the data is available. I posted about the fires being part of the climate calamity and a bunch of left-leaning friends tried to tell me this was just part of a normal cycle.
Unfortunately, people don't understand that it can be part of a normal cycle of some phenomenon whose probability and thus frequency of occurrence is increased by a warming climate. This is the sort of basic thing that should be taught in school, and even reiterated constantly on the news and other areas. Worse, when even a small amount of mental effort is required to understand such a simple and logical statement, it opens the possibility for a willful disregard and twisting of the facts by those who find it more convenient to do so.
Nice article Bill. The conversation around climate change has become increasingly urgent, as its effects are now more visible than ever. The sight of apocalyptic fires and the ongoing mantra of drill drill drill on fossil fuel extraction starkly highlight the trajectory the world is on. These are merely the warning signs of more catastrophic events to come. Unfortunately, many leaders remain preoccupied with playing the blame game instead of confronting the crisis head-on. It is shocking to see how the new President is cancelling leases on wind farms, it is so obvious how strong the lobby for the oil companies is and how his campaign was funded. Looking up to the government to find solutions does not seem to be solving any problems, rather creating more. Empowering individuals to take charge is a powerful way to drive change in the face of inaction by leaders. Companies respond to market demands, and if consumers reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, the incentive for drilling diminishes. But how many are ready to reduce their consumptions?
Thank you all for this wonderful article and the comments on the discussion.
Could it be that the fear of impermanence underlies what appears to be the "steady loss of intelligence" in the culture? During a paradigm shift, some of us may choose to cling to a log that we think will keep us afloat, rather than taking the risk to swim to a new shore.
"the steady loss of intelligence in our nation and our world worries me the most”
Yes. Yes. Yes.
Stupidity thrives when we worship the god of wealth and power.
I have long thought that the Homo sapiens sapiens experiment made a disastrously wrong turn somewhere along its trajectory. "One of the mysteries of Hubble’s universe is why we haven’t found other intelligent species." No longer certain that we will be able to continue to apply that adjective to our own for much longer.
"The Fall" :)
Bill, thank you. Thank you. I'm from Altadena but had to leave in 2011. Altadena is my heart's home, and the wild mountains at the edge of town are my favorite place in the world. I've been reading you since I moved away -- you're the one who really showed me the level of danger to my mountains & my world and inspired me to become a climate activist -- but I had no idea that you, too, were from Altadena. Your short essay is the first attempt I've seen to put these fires into context. When I reached the last line, I cried for the first time since my city was leveled (I guess I've been in shock). Thank you so much for everything you do to promote a world that values intelligence and the way you wake up every morning ready again to love the world with all your might. Thank you. Thank you.
i feel kind of stunned today--too stunned to really *feel.* But one's brain keeps working.
thanks for your kind words, and also for being part of this fight
You work so unbelievably hard, Bill, and I cannot thank you enough. But it's also okay to take time to take care of yourself. Please do. Take time outside. Go remind yourself what all the work is for. And if we can do anything to lend you a little emotional support, let us know.
Thank you for the focus on Project 2025's intention to do away with climate funding. That can't be said often enough, loud enough.
I am a first time reader, thank you! The LA inferno and Jimmy Carter are in sad juxtaposition today😔.
Always excellent and such a cry from the heart - so much needed as we head towards January 20 and compete insanity.
Milton Humason was my great-uncle (my Dad's uncle). He was not only an astronomer at Mount Wilson, but he also was the muleskinner who hauled materials up the mountain by mules to build the observatory. Milton did a lot of research in his early years of working at the observatory that Hubble took credit for simply because Milton was never educated past the 7th grade. It wasn't until later that Milton started receiving some recognition for his work, but Hubble still gained most of the credit and spotlight. An excellent book about Milton is "The Muleskinner and the Stars: The Life and Times of Milton La Salle Humason, Astronomer" by Ronald Voller.
My grandmother, Beatrice Mayberry Humason, also worked at Mount Wilson Observatory in the 1920s doing sunspot studies.
What a great story!
> That’s because they understand (correctly) that this science is “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry.”
The biggest shame is that we need so much science to continually hit us on the head to keep the fight for the climate going. By now, it is absolutely obvious what's happening and at least the major steps necessary are also obvious, and yet we have to "waste" a lot of time continually producing new results just to get people to listen. The shouting about the climate is necessary, but reflects the poor state of the world's intertwined societies.
Yes!!!!🙌🏼
And… the execrable state of the media, who breathlessly report on fires, floods, and hurricanes, and do not ONCE say the words “climate change.” Or if they (VERY RARELY) do, say those words in casual passing, often while noting how nice the extra spring heat is for our flower gardens. Sigh. ☹️
True. The media are also to blame, and that's expected. Even the BBC, which does have a sizable section regarding climate change and which did mention it in passing regarding the fires, they typically promote the narrative that everything is changing with the required magnitude and downplay the immediate seriousness of the problem.
After all, climate change is part of a larger problem where our spirituality has been replaced by the chasing of the sensational, whether it be in consumption or information, and that larger (non)-ethic is a component of modern media's very survival...
My family started moving into the LA area in the 1870s and 80s. My great grandfather helped start the biology program at LA Normal school and then when it became UCLA he was part of the move of the campus to Westwood. Some of the data he and his son (who was dean of zoology at UC Berkeley--Loye and Alden Miller) collected is now being used to look at changes caused by climate change (The Grinnell Resurvey Project). Their data is being used to confirm climate change.
However, it is important to stick to the facts. There is pretty good evidence that climate change will reduce the pressure gradient between the cold high desert basin and the low coastal areas with the high mountain in-between and thus reduce, not increase the Santa Ana winds. Your "perhaps" is not data or model related. It is not ethical to claim we know or even models show that Santa Anas are or will be worse. It is not ethical because the human cause is where people built--not the wind.
Here is what we do know. Humans caused the disaster. They caused it by building where there should not. Topanga, Altadena, the Palisades--they are not defendable in 80 mph winds with 5% humidity. This is caused by libertarian type attitudes against any rules that would stop the real estate industry from building in places that should not have homes at all. It was also caused by people who think living in suburbs near wild lands is a desirable "living in nature". When it is really destroying nature. People who want to preserve nature need to live densely in apartment buildings--not on a winding road in the hills and canyons.
Climate change will add hotter days and drier fall and winters -when the wind comes. The alternation with atmospheric storms will create a ton of fuel--the current fires are in part from the record rain making fuel. That wind has always been 5% humidity, always been strong, always been full of static electricity so you can't touch metal without a shock. Writers in LA have been talking about this for 100 years (Joan Didion et al)
What changed was too many people creating a new ecotone that will not survive--the suburban-chaparral zone. No amount of men on ropes working down slope you can't stand on and clearing brush will do much. No amount of clearing back from homes. No amount of goats. Controlled burns cannot happen in places with homes. The more fire is suppressed--the more fuel is left--until fire must happen.
In the 1880 to late 1930s there was a popular movement to build resorts, cabins and homes in and on the high wild areas in greater LA. Huge floods, fires, and incessant of rates of erosion--landslides -- that laid waste to these ventures also demonstrated that the mountains and canyons could not be readily domesticated. In the 1940s Angelenos realized that the efforts to harness the fantasy of the frontier were Sisyphean in nature. It was no longer a priority to be pursued. That was forgotten over time.
You can see the foundations of some of those places. But most is gone. My grandparents and great grandparents used to talk sadly about places that had cabins and were washed out or burned. Like Icehouse Canyon or Mount Lowe.
Over time, the real estate ponzi-type schemes (it is always more valuable until you are the person who owns it when it burns) and later the Reagan influenced movements against "regulation" started building. What were basically shacks in remote areas became valuable land. Even though everyone knew it burned all the time--that is one reason land was cheap.
One example, Louis T. Busch and Associates pushed to develop the burning areas in Malibu starting in 1949. In 1956, a fire burned 35,000 acres and destroyed 250 structures. Today is basically the same sort of fire, but with more people and homes to burn. Busch died in 2015. People like him and people who bought from him--all over LA-- are why LA is burning today. Most homes that burned were built between 1950 and today.
So, in a nutshell. No, climate change does not cause and probably will not increase Santa Anas. The wild areas of Southern California are evolved to burn. The wild areas are too steep and the canyons too narrow to safely build on. Humans caused the disaster. But not that way you are implying. People who want to "live where they want" caused it. People who wanted to buy cheap ranch land and make money caused it. People who don't want the "government regulations" caused it. In 1930 Fredrick Law Olmsted proposed a plan to make much of what is burning in the Palisades fire parks that would be off limits to housing. That was scrapped.
My heart is heavy, so very heavy. And, yes, where can I put my energy today?
Though this is heartbreaking, we will persevere! No question about it. The great arc will bend. Courage!
How long until that great arc finally starts to bend??
Pompei and the great Chicago Fire in the 19th Century come to mind.
BUT all of the rebuilt housing should use innovative architecture like railroad cars and trucks as interior insulation for steel fire protection.
Many of theserehabed houses have begun to be built and won architectural awards too,
Thank you for this comprehensive essay and particularly for its focus on the losses in the Eaton fire. I am currently evacuated I’m from my home in West Pasadena and my son and his family from theirs in Altadena. My son’s home on the Western edge is still here, but their school and community are gone. Your memories of Altadena are touching because you childhood memories match the current losses being processed by my grandchildren and their parents. A community has been leveled by a wind storm and firestorm I had never experienced in 75 years living in the San Gabriel Valley. My neighborhood isn’t in a fire zone, I’ve never been evacuated in the 45 years have lived here. Everything you have written is so appropriate to these times. Progress does seem to be making our species stupider about the long term.
Thanks, as always! I've been following the LA fires closely since I grew up in Glendale, which is rather close to Altadena. I don't live in CA anymore, but I have lots of fond memories about the area. I appreciate you providing a link to the Nature paper that discusses displacement of the polar vortex due to Arctic warming. I read it when it first appeared, but it is worth rereading now. The conjunction of the horrible events in LA with the return of the Trump administration leaves me close to despair, but the fight against climate change must go on!
Can the climate monitoring research move to other countries? Maybe Europe? It is hard enough to keep people focused when the data is available. I posted about the fires being part of the climate calamity and a bunch of left-leaning friends tried to tell me this was just part of a normal cycle.
Unfortunately, people don't understand that it can be part of a normal cycle of some phenomenon whose probability and thus frequency of occurrence is increased by a warming climate. This is the sort of basic thing that should be taught in school, and even reiterated constantly on the news and other areas. Worse, when even a small amount of mental effort is required to understand such a simple and logical statement, it opens the possibility for a willful disregard and twisting of the facts by those who find it more convenient to do so.
Nice article Bill. The conversation around climate change has become increasingly urgent, as its effects are now more visible than ever. The sight of apocalyptic fires and the ongoing mantra of drill drill drill on fossil fuel extraction starkly highlight the trajectory the world is on. These are merely the warning signs of more catastrophic events to come. Unfortunately, many leaders remain preoccupied with playing the blame game instead of confronting the crisis head-on. It is shocking to see how the new President is cancelling leases on wind farms, it is so obvious how strong the lobby for the oil companies is and how his campaign was funded. Looking up to the government to find solutions does not seem to be solving any problems, rather creating more. Empowering individuals to take charge is a powerful way to drive change in the face of inaction by leaders. Companies respond to market demands, and if consumers reduce their reliance on fossil fuels, the incentive for drilling diminishes. But how many are ready to reduce their consumptions?
Thank you all for this wonderful article and the comments on the discussion.
Could it be that the fear of impermanence underlies what appears to be the "steady loss of intelligence" in the culture? During a paradigm shift, some of us may choose to cling to a log that we think will keep us afloat, rather than taking the risk to swim to a new shore.
Dianne Pierson
I think that's very wise, and in fact fits with some of the small piece I'm working on next. Thank you!