As a new Oxford paper shows, the incredibly rapid fall in the cost of renewables offers hope--but only if movements can push banks and politicians hard enough
After what has been such a rough summer, especially during the last month with the release of the IPCC report, I’ll take whatever good news I can get. This brightens my day immensely.
Agree with the hopeful message, but "catching a break" is a weird framing, especially coming from an activist. Were university divestments, or stopping a few pipelines, or stopping a lot of coal plants also "catching a break?" No, they were all the result of climate hawks working their butts off, as were the many advocates and activists who passed strong renewable energy policies state by state along with federal tax credit renewals.
Thanks for your tireless efforts - a good dialogue this Climate Work - this COP will be critical; do we have the will to really change our systems? We wouldn’t be facing such a crisis if we had acted when scientists issued their first warnings, three decades ago {or…listened to Amory Lovins and his “soft path” in FA way, way back in 1976!!, he was so far out of the mainstream – thought of as a wacko then - but so much of what he envisioned as been realized, even if decades too late}
Think what could have been had we not wasted 45 years, or had we put a hard price on carbon – 1 vote away under Clinton – or passed Waxman-Markey under BHO…..
Nice to have some good news for a change. I'm a big fan of a new type of baseline commercial Geothermal developed here in Canada. Totally self contained, no fracking, no polluting groundwater, makes use of abandoned gas and oil wells. See eavor.com for details if you're interested.
Bill you said: "...but only if movements can push banks and politicians hard enough" I have read the Oxford paper and agree that Clean Energy Renewables offer hope as do other tools such as a Carbon Fee & Dividend program.
However, as 'Experienced Americans' know, there's all flavors of Republican and Democratic politicians (Progressive - Moderate - Extremists). In addition to the 50 Republican Senators that do not favor Climate Justice legislation, there is also one Extremist Democratic Senator that has us in a violent chokehold.
This is Joe Manchin. See 9-20-21 NYT article shorturl.at/uyHKO "This Powerful Democrat Linked to Fossil Fuels Will Craft the U.S. Climate Plan"
That article pulls no punches about Manchin and that his intent is to water down the Clean Energy provisions and also slow roll things until 2022 when the Republicans might have control in Congress.
What do you think you and 'Experienced Americans' in the ThirdAct movement can effectively do to push back on this Extremist Democratic Senator?
As an example, would you and Jim Hansen, or another person with bona fides, consider writing an opinion piece in the NYT? WSJ? WAPO? I am looking for hopeful solutions.
This is an excellent Paul Krugman (Nobel Economist) Opinion Rebuttal to the NYT story on Joe Manchin. It gives me hope!
And I hope this material is beneficial to some readers here and that perhaps someone with contacts in the Whitehouse can put this in President Biden's briefing book and let him know that 'Experienced Americans' want some solid Climate Justice this year and in years to come.
Happy to read Bill's 9-20-21 piece in The New Yorker magazine exposing how Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) wants to weaken the Clean Energy standards in the Infrastructure Bill to benefit WV Coal Companies as well as the electric companies they supply such as American Electric Power (AEP) and it's CEO Nick Atkins.
Manchin and Atkins have each others cell phone numbers and Manchin is smart enough to take calls from Atkins who makes over $15 million yearly ... the 3rd highest paid electric utility in the US! shorturl.at/bfjHT
Yes, and I'd also suggest this recent piece articulating why the case for renewables should now be framed in terms of *gain* not *pain* -- not just the exponentially falling prices or renewables, but also other factors providing increasing traction (energy security, geopolitical advantage, enablement of developing economies, etc.): https://carbontracker.org/gain-not-pain-why-cop-must-move-the-narrative-forward/
In places like California, the biggest need is for energy storage, since solar ends at sunset, and wind is always variable. But the state has failed to push the best storage method, pumped hydro.
Good one, Bill, but people overlook this problem: binding Power Purchase Agreements between utility companies and banks. They are typically for 30 year terms, and banks won't cancel them and take losses. Utilities are also at fault: they could cancel PPA's, but won't do it, because it's simpler for them to just continue business as usual. Nobody is calling either of these groups to account in meaningful ways. They will listen to you, though, Bill. Please investigate this problem. We win if we find a law firm that is willing to sue both banks and utilities for public negligence.
Hydrogen does make a good fuel, but I think the efficiency of making it from green sources, even w/ latest catalysts, is low, like 40%-60%, AND most applications want it highly compressed, which is energy costly with hydrogen, so I think round trip efficiency is unfortunately low, like 30%., though pls correct me if I’m wrong.
And there are probably application like aviation, or say in combo with CAES, where hydrogen is a win or doesn’t need compression, etc. hope this is helpful/valid
When you consider the existential threat the continuing use of fossil fuels brings it's important to realize that the further along that path we go the less important economics and efficiency become and the more important does it work and in zero carbon becomes. Additionally this is not to be thought of a as a single source solution, it is one of many and it's important to realize there will not be a magic wand, but the instead the application of every available technology and practice.
The oil companies are pushing hydrogen hard, I think so they can keep selling fossil fuel, to make “blue” hydrogen when no one is checking/looking. So hydrogen is a fuel to be considered carefully.
And, I respectfully at least partly disagree: efficiency and economics are both going to be crucial, for the next 10-20 years, until we get so “far along that path” as you said, that people are scared, due to drought, floods, etc. And the next 10-20 years are crucial ayk for stopping the methane, replacing coal&gas, etc before ice sheets&tundra melt. So money is key, and efficiency, imho. Thx.
The problem today is that our governments in the west are largely "controlled", in one way or another, by fossil fuel interests, from lobbying, to the wrong people being elected, to the massive lies and greenwashing the public is being fed . This is the single most massive, and critical, failure of our economic systems.
H2 certainly has problems regarding transport but we have here in NA (I'm Canadian BTW) a vast infrastructure of O&G pipelines that can be used to move it. With the recent revelations of potentially massive stores of H2 underground (geologic forces creating it) it can be accessed all over the world reducing both cost to mine it and less need for transport https://www.science.org/content/article/hidden-hydrogen-earth-may-hold-vast-stores-renewable-carbon-free-fuel
"A new report published Wednesday details how the fossil fuel industry—with assistance from the Biden administration—has taken advantage of Russia's war on Ukraine to secure long-term methane gas export contracts that will lock in years of planet-warming emissions and further pad Big Oil's profits."
How does the cost and difficulty of storage for solar power figure into this? My sense was that while solar power generation was growing rapidly cheaper, we still need more innovation in batteries to provide reliable power at scale, particularly given seasonal variability in sunlight.
the good news is that battery costs are now on the same plummeting curve--and new tech is emerging pretty fast. (iron replacing lithium for big utility scale batteries for instance)
Work like that at Oxfordis being done by Jessika Trancik at her lab at MIT, by her and Micah Ziegler and their team, on the learning curve’s for photovoltaics and lithium ion batteries and renewables, and determining the key drivers, which seem to be in those cases particularly electric vehicle scaling for batteries; private and government research and development (esp materials science imho), and I’m sure subsidies were crucial as well. Batteries are dropping 7-10% per year in cost/KWH capacity, so halving in price every 10 years or less.. That decline is bringing battery storage where PV+(Wind+)storage can compete as dispatch peaking source with gas OGCT peaked plants; and someday if trend continues as dispatchable baseload replacing even gas CCGTs.
As a solar installer and climate activist this makes me more hopeful. See you on the streets….
double thanks to you
After what has been such a rough summer, especially during the last month with the release of the IPCC report, I’ll take whatever good news I can get. This brightens my day immensely.
sometimes it makes it easier to keep up the fight!
:)
Thank you for linking the Oct 11-15 People vs Fossil Fuels demonstrations. A BIG turnout can make a BIG difference.
I love this - it’s so refreshing and hopeful! And thanks for the plug for the October DC action - I’ll be there!
Agree with the hopeful message, but "catching a break" is a weird framing, especially coming from an activist. Were university divestments, or stopping a few pipelines, or stopping a lot of coal plants also "catching a break?" No, they were all the result of climate hawks working their butts off, as were the many advocates and activists who passed strong renewable energy policies state by state along with federal tax credit renewals.
sometimes you make your own luck!
Bill
Thanks for your tireless efforts - a good dialogue this Climate Work - this COP will be critical; do we have the will to really change our systems? We wouldn’t be facing such a crisis if we had acted when scientists issued their first warnings, three decades ago {or…listened to Amory Lovins and his “soft path” in FA way, way back in 1976!!, he was so far out of the mainstream – thought of as a wacko then - but so much of what he envisioned as been realized, even if decades too late}
Think what could have been had we not wasted 45 years, or had we put a hard price on carbon – 1 vote away under Clinton – or passed Waxman-Markey under BHO…..
Nice to have some good news for a change. I'm a big fan of a new type of baseline commercial Geothermal developed here in Canada. Totally self contained, no fracking, no polluting groundwater, makes use of abandoned gas and oil wells. See eavor.com for details if you're interested.
Bill you said: "...but only if movements can push banks and politicians hard enough" I have read the Oxford paper and agree that Clean Energy Renewables offer hope as do other tools such as a Carbon Fee & Dividend program.
However, as 'Experienced Americans' know, there's all flavors of Republican and Democratic politicians (Progressive - Moderate - Extremists). In addition to the 50 Republican Senators that do not favor Climate Justice legislation, there is also one Extremist Democratic Senator that has us in a violent chokehold.
This is Joe Manchin. See 9-20-21 NYT article shorturl.at/uyHKO "This Powerful Democrat Linked to Fossil Fuels Will Craft the U.S. Climate Plan"
That article pulls no punches about Manchin and that his intent is to water down the Clean Energy provisions and also slow roll things until 2022 when the Republicans might have control in Congress.
What do you think you and 'Experienced Americans' in the ThirdAct movement can effectively do to push back on this Extremist Democratic Senator?
As an example, would you and Jim Hansen, or another person with bona fides, consider writing an opinion piece in the NYT? WSJ? WAPO? I am looking for hopeful solutions.
See the last few pages of updates at: https://www.shorturl.at/uyHKO
This is an excellent Paul Krugman (Nobel Economist) Opinion Rebuttal to the NYT story on Joe Manchin. It gives me hope!
And I hope this material is beneficial to some readers here and that perhaps someone with contacts in the Whitehouse can put this in President Biden's briefing book and let him know that 'Experienced Americans' want some solid Climate Justice this year and in years to come.
See the last few pages of updates at: https://www.shorturl.at/uyHKO
Happy to read Bill's 9-20-21 piece in The New Yorker magazine exposing how Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) wants to weaken the Clean Energy standards in the Infrastructure Bill to benefit WV Coal Companies as well as the electric companies they supply such as American Electric Power (AEP) and it's CEO Nick Atkins.
Manchin and Atkins have each others cell phone numbers and Manchin is smart enough to take calls from Atkins who makes over $15 million yearly ... the 3rd highest paid electric utility in the US! shorturl.at/bfjHT
Plus, AEP rates a 'miserable score' on decarbonization. https://www.climateaction100.org/company/american-electric-power-company-inc/
Perhaps it's time that those in the Climate Justice movement do something with the AEP board as was successfully done earlier this year with the Exxon board. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/investors-running-out-of-patience-with-u-s-oil-and-gas-companies/
Yes, and I'd also suggest this recent piece articulating why the case for renewables should now be framed in terms of *gain* not *pain* -- not just the exponentially falling prices or renewables, but also other factors providing increasing traction (energy security, geopolitical advantage, enablement of developing economies, etc.): https://carbontracker.org/gain-not-pain-why-cop-must-move-the-narrative-forward/
A drop in PV costs is not needed, PV is cheap enough! However, PV is crazily expensive in the US.
https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2020
$1,100/kWp for large scale versus $700 in Germany (p74)
$2,218kWp for residential versus $1,609 in Germany (which seems high for Germany), $1,219 in Australia
PV components have commodity like prices. These huge cost differences between countries make NO SENSE. Somebody is making a lot of money....
In places like California, the biggest need is for energy storage, since solar ends at sunset, and wind is always variable. But the state has failed to push the best storage method, pumped hydro.
Good one, Bill, but people overlook this problem: binding Power Purchase Agreements between utility companies and banks. They are typically for 30 year terms, and banks won't cancel them and take losses. Utilities are also at fault: they could cancel PPA's, but won't do it, because it's simpler for them to just continue business as usual. Nobody is calling either of these groups to account in meaningful ways. They will listen to you, though, Bill. Please investigate this problem. We win if we find a law firm that is willing to sue both banks and utilities for public negligence.
To add to this my feeling is that green Hydrogen is the fuel of the future especially now that a much cheaper catalyst has been developed. See https://interestingengineering.com/a-new-electrocatalyst-massively-improves-the-commercial-viability-of-green-hydrogen
Hydrogen does make a good fuel, but I think the efficiency of making it from green sources, even w/ latest catalysts, is low, like 40%-60%, AND most applications want it highly compressed, which is energy costly with hydrogen, so I think round trip efficiency is unfortunately low, like 30%., though pls correct me if I’m wrong.
And there are probably application like aviation, or say in combo with CAES, where hydrogen is a win or doesn’t need compression, etc. hope this is helpful/valid
When you consider the existential threat the continuing use of fossil fuels brings it's important to realize that the further along that path we go the less important economics and efficiency become and the more important does it work and in zero carbon becomes. Additionally this is not to be thought of a as a single source solution, it is one of many and it's important to realize there will not be a magic wand, but the instead the application of every available technology and practice.
The oil companies are pushing hydrogen hard, I think so they can keep selling fossil fuel, to make “blue” hydrogen when no one is checking/looking. So hydrogen is a fuel to be considered carefully.
And, I respectfully at least partly disagree: efficiency and economics are both going to be crucial, for the next 10-20 years, until we get so “far along that path” as you said, that people are scared, due to drought, floods, etc. And the next 10-20 years are crucial ayk for stopping the methane, replacing coal&gas, etc before ice sheets&tundra melt. So money is key, and efficiency, imho. Thx.
There was a time when we had 10-20 years - that time has come and gone. See https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/72/12/1149/6764747 and https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17022023/climate-feedback-loop-accelerators/. Every single IPCC report has grossly underestimated the rate of climate change (not deliberately just a result of the best science available at the time.)
The problem today is that our governments in the west are largely "controlled", in one way or another, by fossil fuel interests, from lobbying, to the wrong people being elected, to the massive lies and greenwashing the public is being fed . This is the single most massive, and critical, failure of our economic systems.
Then there is this https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/16/world-risks-descending-into-a-climate-doom-loop-warn-thinktanks - by expending our energy and $ to cope with the with escalating impacts of climate crisis could override tackling root cause.
H2 certainly has problems regarding transport but we have here in NA (I'm Canadian BTW) a vast infrastructure of O&G pipelines that can be used to move it. With the recent revelations of potentially massive stores of H2 underground (geologic forces creating it) it can be accessed all over the world reducing both cost to mine it and less need for transport https://www.science.org/content/article/hidden-hydrogen-earth-may-hold-vast-stores-renewable-carbon-free-fuel
Regarding my comment on politics being influenced by O&G lobbying etc. see https://www.commondreams.org/news/biden-big-oil-gas-exports -
"A new report published Wednesday details how the fossil fuel industry—with assistance from the Biden administration—has taken advantage of Russia's war on Ukraine to secure long-term methane gas export contracts that will lock in years of planet-warming emissions and further pad Big Oil's profits."
How does the cost and difficulty of storage for solar power figure into this? My sense was that while solar power generation was growing rapidly cheaper, we still need more innovation in batteries to provide reliable power at scale, particularly given seasonal variability in sunlight.
the good news is that battery costs are now on the same plummeting curve--and new tech is emerging pretty fast. (iron replacing lithium for big utility scale batteries for instance)
Work like that at Oxfordis being done by Jessika Trancik at her lab at MIT, by her and Micah Ziegler and their team, on the learning curve’s for photovoltaics and lithium ion batteries and renewables, and determining the key drivers, which seem to be in those cases particularly electric vehicle scaling for batteries; private and government research and development (esp materials science imho), and I’m sure subsidies were crucial as well. Batteries are dropping 7-10% per year in cost/KWH capacity, so halving in price every 10 years or less.. That decline is bringing battery storage where PV+(Wind+)storage can compete as dispatch peaking source with gas OGCT peaked plants; and someday if trend continues as dispatchable baseload replacing even gas CCGTs.
These imho are both good&pertinent:
https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2021/ee/d1ee01313k
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542435119303009
This is really good news.
I
A great idea to get out in the streets but how many attendees will burn fossil fuel to get to DC??
Wouldn’t it be better to organize rallies in every city across the Country. Stay home, not burn ff and get out in the streets!
i think there's some of that going on too--but once in a while you have to go to HQ
Not to mention there's plenty of activists native to DC.