Wow, this is so critical. We "feel" the differences in our SW Washington forest, see how the trees respond. Thank you for fighting so diligently. Nature's responses will drive the politics. What will "survival mode" look like in the near future? Voting matters. Voting for planet health matters, thank you for caring
In Houston, in addition to the changing climate - the warming of the GoM and air - gotta wonder how much over development has added to the problem... It's grim. I meet many native Texans who say it was never like this when they were young particularly the humidity and duration of the summer heat.
Good piece by Bill. And you've nailed something vital. Sprawling "impervious surfaces" (what an awful term) are a huge component of worsening risk of dangerous flooding from extreme rains. And of course there's that "heat island effect" in cities. CO2-driven heating will keep ramping odds of both deadly humid heat and epic deluges but even without those worsening hazards, without cutting vulnerability communities like those mentioned here will face deadly threats. I wrote about the "Houston, we have a [flooding] problem" challenge in ProPublica in 2017: https://j.mp/developmentdisasters And there's lots more from me on Substack on the heat https://revkin.substack.com/p/as-global-warming-fuels-more-record-22-07-19?utm_source=publication-search and flood https://revkin.substack.com/i/79692388/build-forward-spongier threats and fixes.
Example #1485 that the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere has cased and will caused more cost. Still waiting for McKibben add other environmentalist to get on board with the lowest cost policy to reduce those costs: a tax on net emissions of CO2 and methane.
Great post, Bill, Thank you. An comment on the so-called Public Utilities. I live in Sacramento County California. We, citizens who live in Sacramento County own our own electrical system 'Sacramento Municipal Utility District [SMUD] We expect to be 100% renewable energy very soon. Our monthly cost of energy is significantly lower than the surrounding counties who are stuck with Pacific Gas and Electric a for profit company which has cut back so far on routine maintenance that they have caused many of our forest fires and gas explosions.
Through the 1970's they used to have daily air patrols of al;l the forests where their electrical lines existed so the could spot problem fires before they got out of control. But the shareholders and executives weren't making money fast enough so that contract was cancelled. They used to have regular routine maintenance and replacement of older gas lines, but that also bit into profits leading to explosions causing loss of life and property.
The problem is - way back in the late 19th early 20th centuries PG&E, Southern Edison and others signed binding 99 year contracts. These contracts are long expired but the utilities are so entrenched and they want billions to buy them out I'm not sure - without government backing them the other counties can squeeze out from under. The Public Utilities Commission is supposed to be a Government agency that protects consumers but more often than not they find in favor of the for profits.
I agree. They've made and continue to make a whole bunch more than their investments. And by now the 99 year agreements are long out of date. And especially looking at how much damage they have caused in California by their deliberate lack of maintenance they deserve nothing. But like fossil fuels the "investors" keep crying foul and "buying" legislators to save their sorry asses. I'm hoping Kamala and her Vice President will stick to Biden's advice and put the people, the County, and the Earth ahead of the poor, poor, babies who might not be able to afford another yacht for two whole years - boohoo.
My response to Sam Matey: "Developing Asian economies" may build all the solar farms you like but this will have no effect on the climate disaster. The only thing that will is reducing the carbon we put into the air. The role for renewables is secondary to that; they must replace the energy we now get from carbon fuels, to prevent economic disaster. But the driver of the transition is a reduction in carbon burnt, not the production of renewables. You cannot "balance" carbon with renewables, because renewables have no weight in that scale. And any new production of carbon fuels simply overbalances it further.
How do you measure success? That is, what simple to understand number can we measure and look at to know we have accomplished our goal? Clearly, it would have to be an endpoint that mattered and not just changes in input factors like the CO2 level as it makes no sense to care what that level is if we have accomplished our goal.
So what is the goal here? What outcome are we trying to achieve and why?
Not for very long in the big picture. Soon enough, it will be the thickest atmosphere outside of Venus and crushingly suffocating. All in a giant multicolored rock. The Marsing isn’t a possibility, but we’re not gonna lose atmosphere constituents, we’re going to turn him from solids, liquids and gases form. We’re going to be Venus 2.0
Make sure until your grandkids so they can hate you while you’re still alive
So much hair-raising alarm, and so much heart-lifting hope in this letter, Bill! Thank you again for distilling loads of information for us and for your unflagging heroism.
Giobal Rapid Heating ("warming" is too tame a word for what is going on) has a lot of unpleasant surprises still in store for us. Consider troposphere atmospheric dynamics. The AMOC collapse may come much sooner than current models predict and there may be changes also in the prevailing winds in both hemispheres. Winds speeding up or slowing down, major reversals of shifts and layering. There are a huge number of unknowns and any or all may effect our agriculture. It's not just hurricanes intensifying and flash flooding in the deserts..it is the wind currents themselves that will seek a new equilibrium.
Vote for candidates who are intelligent enough to follow the science and have the moral courage to face very powerful opposition.
18-24 inches predicted for Savannah. The storm hasn't even reached us here in Reidsville, Georgia, and water has overflowed the pond-dam and is over the road.
Wow, this is so critical. We "feel" the differences in our SW Washington forest, see how the trees respond. Thank you for fighting so diligently. Nature's responses will drive the politics. What will "survival mode" look like in the near future? Voting matters. Voting for planet health matters, thank you for caring
In Houston, in addition to the changing climate - the warming of the GoM and air - gotta wonder how much over development has added to the problem... It's grim. I meet many native Texans who say it was never like this when they were young particularly the humidity and duration of the summer heat.
Good piece by Bill. And you've nailed something vital. Sprawling "impervious surfaces" (what an awful term) are a huge component of worsening risk of dangerous flooding from extreme rains. And of course there's that "heat island effect" in cities. CO2-driven heating will keep ramping odds of both deadly humid heat and epic deluges but even without those worsening hazards, without cutting vulnerability communities like those mentioned here will face deadly threats. I wrote about the "Houston, we have a [flooding] problem" challenge in ProPublica in 2017: https://j.mp/developmentdisasters And there's lots more from me on Substack on the heat https://revkin.substack.com/p/as-global-warming-fuels-more-record-22-07-19?utm_source=publication-search and flood https://revkin.substack.com/i/79692388/build-forward-spongier threats and fixes.
Example #1485 that the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere has cased and will caused more cost. Still waiting for McKibben add other environmentalist to get on board with the lowest cost policy to reduce those costs: a tax on net emissions of CO2 and methane.
Great post, Bill, Thank you. An comment on the so-called Public Utilities. I live in Sacramento County California. We, citizens who live in Sacramento County own our own electrical system 'Sacramento Municipal Utility District [SMUD] We expect to be 100% renewable energy very soon. Our monthly cost of energy is significantly lower than the surrounding counties who are stuck with Pacific Gas and Electric a for profit company which has cut back so far on routine maintenance that they have caused many of our forest fires and gas explosions.
Through the 1970's they used to have daily air patrols of al;l the forests where their electrical lines existed so the could spot problem fires before they got out of control. But the shareholders and executives weren't making money fast enough so that contract was cancelled. They used to have regular routine maintenance and replacement of older gas lines, but that also bit into profits leading to explosions causing loss of life and property.
The problem is - way back in the late 19th early 20th centuries PG&E, Southern Edison and others signed binding 99 year contracts. These contracts are long expired but the utilities are so entrenched and they want billions to buy them out I'm not sure - without government backing them the other counties can squeeze out from under. The Public Utilities Commission is supposed to be a Government agency that protects consumers but more often than not they find in favor of the for profits.
No. Just no to paying for a buyout. Every cent is needed for practical work solutions.
I agree. They've made and continue to make a whole bunch more than their investments. And by now the 99 year agreements are long out of date. And especially looking at how much damage they have caused in California by their deliberate lack of maintenance they deserve nothing. But like fossil fuels the "investors" keep crying foul and "buying" legislators to save their sorry asses. I'm hoping Kamala and her Vice President will stick to Biden's advice and put the people, the County, and the Earth ahead of the poor, poor, babies who might not be able to afford another yacht for two whole years - boohoo.
My response to Sam Matey: "Developing Asian economies" may build all the solar farms you like but this will have no effect on the climate disaster. The only thing that will is reducing the carbon we put into the air. The role for renewables is secondary to that; they must replace the energy we now get from carbon fuels, to prevent economic disaster. But the driver of the transition is a reduction in carbon burnt, not the production of renewables. You cannot "balance" carbon with renewables, because renewables have no weight in that scale. And any new production of carbon fuels simply overbalances it further.
Bill, Global Rapid Heating is going to have effects so much worse than we anticipate. We think things are bad now but:
"Yes, and so any river is huge if it be the greatest man has seen
Who has seen no greater before,...
And each imagines as huge all things of every kind
Which are greatest of those he has seen.
-Lucretius, De Rarum Natura
Bill,
How do you measure success? That is, what simple to understand number can we measure and look at to know we have accomplished our goal? Clearly, it would have to be an endpoint that mattered and not just changes in input factors like the CO2 level as it makes no sense to care what that level is if we have accomplished our goal.
So what is the goal here? What outcome are we trying to achieve and why?
Thanks!
H
Not for very long in the big picture. Soon enough, it will be the thickest atmosphere outside of Venus and crushingly suffocating. All in a giant multicolored rock. The Marsing isn’t a possibility, but we’re not gonna lose atmosphere constituents, we’re going to turn him from solids, liquids and gases form. We’re going to be Venus 2.0
Make sure until your grandkids so they can hate you while you’re still alive
So much hair-raising alarm, and so much heart-lifting hope in this letter, Bill! Thank you again for distilling loads of information for us and for your unflagging heroism.
We have added at least 6% to our total hydrological cycle process. The future, or what we have, it will be warmer, wetter, and obviously stinkier.
Giobal Rapid Heating ("warming" is too tame a word for what is going on) has a lot of unpleasant surprises still in store for us. Consider troposphere atmospheric dynamics. The AMOC collapse may come much sooner than current models predict and there may be changes also in the prevailing winds in both hemispheres. Winds speeding up or slowing down, major reversals of shifts and layering. There are a huge number of unknowns and any or all may effect our agriculture. It's not just hurricanes intensifying and flash flooding in the deserts..it is the wind currents themselves that will seek a new equilibrium.
Vote for candidates who are intelligent enough to follow the science and have the moral courage to face very powerful opposition.
18-24 inches predicted for Savannah. The storm hasn't even reached us here in Reidsville, Georgia, and water has overflowed the pond-dam and is over the road.
thinking of you, friend. it's very hard to watch a pond get washed out!