I live in the far NW corner of the US, a place “better-than-most” to live for the rest of my climate-deranged lifetime. I speak of these crises every day, everywhere, and am on the local Emergency Planning Commission. We are at risk from ocean rise and mountain flooding…our desirable but low-lying ag land is sure to be lost. So even though people would want to relocate here for nicer temps, the localized food system is likely short-term. When the dikes are breached (already happening in bits over the past few years), thousands of acres of prime growing land will be ruined. So no, there is no perfect place…except where we can join in solidarity to figure it out together, combine skills and resources, and live like the communal, cooperative, conscientious beings we can be.
One of my buddies always talks about “good neighbors aiming to be better neighbors.” I like this because as you said, Americans aren’t great at this in our atomized, fast-paced lifestyle—which is not just a symptom but a cause of our predicament—but we can learn, and cultivate the instincts that do still show up in moments of disaster. (I’m glad to have more and more peers who already recognize the crisis and aren’t waiting for even worse to open their eyes and hearts). Thanks as always Bill!
I've been concerned about climate change my whole life (I'm only 39) and have anticipated climate refugees and displacement for awhile. I'm interested though in your Emergency Planning Commission. I live in a small town of 1,000 in Ohio near a river. I'm new here, but I'm slowly learning to be more neighborly, which I enjoy. I'd like to learn how to be of more use during the climate crisis. How does one start or create an Emergency Planning Commission? What do their duties entail?
I also live in the the PNW and have been thinking about our food system constantly. I will look at my local Emergency Planning Commission and how to prepare for ocean rise and mountain flooding. I work in eldercare and constantly thinking about how to improve societal connections to get through the end of life process with a group who practices rugged individualism. I appreciate your affirmations of neighborliness. 🙌🏻
Great to meet you! I’m a Hospice volunteer—it’s a natural extension of individual care to planetary care, isn’t it?! I’m in La Conner, WA; where are you Emma?
I am not on facebook but would very much like to connect. I am on Instagram as empathicemma if you are on the platform. Otherwise we could email connect, empathicem@gmail.com.
The news about reduction of deforestation in Brazil is very heartening. And I love the stuff about people helping each other in Vermont (and I'm sure in plenty of places elsewhere). We ARE a social species, and this sort of thing brings out the best in us.
On the other hand, what the hell's the matter with Rishi Sunak?!!
Someone recently dropped a link on one of my comments on a Substack about the climate crisis (might have even been here on this very Substack!). I had commented about moving to Portugal several months ago and the climate and infrastructure related collapse I left behind in Georgia (the state). Their link was to an article I'd already read about how Portugal is set to be the EU nation most deeply impacted by the climate emergency. I think their intent behind dropping the link and their accompanying comment about “out of the frying pan into the fire” to be some sort of a “gotcha Lib” drive by, which is funny because they neither got me, nor am I even remotely a Lib.
For one, I came here with my eyes wide open after careful weighing of the pros and cons of different countries available to me and near-to-longer term projections about specific regions within each country.
But perhaps more importantly, I took culture and levels of collectivist attitudes into consideration, and that's ultimately why I chose the city of Porto, Portugal.
Is it perfect? No, but I never expected anywhere would be. But nearly every day I witness or benefit directly from the collectivist culture of the Portuguese people as a whole. I’ll take facing the climate devastation that's coming surrounded by my new Portuguese comrades, language barriers and all, any day before I’d want to face them in the individualistic and callous culture bred in the U.S., especially in the South. I never feared my neighbors turning on me more than I did in conservative Eastern Washington and Red-ruled Georgia.
I hope you continue to be happy in your new home. I regret you felt the need to leave the USA 🇺🇸 but coming from ALABAMA now in SC, I completely understand the need for community and a peaceful existence. You might read the latest newsletters from Alexander Verbeek “The Planet 🌍 “ as he has just completed a pilgrimage to the Camino de Compostela having begun in Pied de St. Port?, Spain (get those cities’ spelling mixed up) and spent his birthday in Porto, Portugal as I remember. Does the Majestic Cafe sound familiar? Glorious photos if my memory is correct as to locale. Just FYI. Many are looking into emigration but lines are long. You are the first I’ve encountered who acted on the idea and followed through. How tragic that one callous, disgusting individual (and his followers) and climate inattention took you away. We must find our way through the maze to survival here, those of us without means to relocate. Enjoy the beauty you find there for many years. You will be missed!
You are the first person to confirm what I figured would happen (that which I wanted to stay ahead of), that emigration lines are now already getting long. That sends chills. My heart hurts for those who aren't getting out... some because they remain in denial... but especially for those whose circumstances have them trapped. I hope those of you still there band together and support each other through what could come to pass. There are people over here aware of the possible need to aid a future flood of refugees.
Bill, as much as your columns are mostly wise and valuable, you are absolutely wrong about population growth. The United States is the major industrialized nation with the greatest per capita greenhouse emissions. In the last 34 years we've added ~85 million. That's equivalent to four New York States plus South Carolina. Half of that growth has come from immigration. The average immigrant's greenhouse emissions have risen three to four fold after arrival--in large part because so many come from third world countries with low per capita emissions. They want to consume like Americans.
Going forward, the Census Bureau projects 75 million over the next 40 years, of which all but 7 million will be from immigration. Yes, we're telling Americans we need to stanch our emissions, but by adding nearly four New York State populations, our emissions are going to keep rising.
Furthermore, even in the third world, population growth is probably going to necessitate more agriculture, and more sprawl--think of the burgeoning cities in Africa and Asia--and when virgin land is converted to anything, large amounts of carbon that are sequestered in virgin land are released to the atmosphere, as two articles in Science showed in 2008, in research that has not been refuted and is not going to be refuted.
Scientists such as EO Wilson have urged humankind to set aside half of Earth for untrammeled nature. But we already use half the world's habitable land for agriculture. Moreover, climate change is reducing Earth's carrying capacity--it will take more land to produce enough to feed us all. We can't keep growing our population.
In other matters, in the 20th century, when the African population rose from less than 100 million to more than a billion, the population of elephants plummeted from 20 million to 500,000. It's still plummeting. Elephants are important players in the African ecosystem, and they are also among the smartest non-humans, who have a lot to teach us if we listen. Elephants are nicer than primates, and it's a matter of their politics. The oldest female is automatically the leader--none of the back-stabbing that goes on among chimps. When I raised this issue, Jane Goodall agreed with me. (Bonobos are also matriarchal and nicer than we are.)
As elephants go, so go the other African megafauna, and much of the rest of African fauna, and so go African ecosystems.
We are in the midst of the sixth major extinction--the first ever caused by a species (us).
The greatest cause of extinction and reduction in the numbers of other species is habitat destruction.
The human population grew from 2,000,000,000 to 8,000,000,000 during the last century. The best thing we can do for the environment--short of all of us becoming Buddhists and living like it--is to let--or even encourage--the human population drop back down (and doing so in the US would have the biggest bang for the $).
Again, you make a lot of very important points, which I will probably comment on in another comment.
well, since it turned out that educating and empowering women dropped the number of children in the average family dramatically, i think we'll see populations plateau this century and then begin to drop. https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/07/1122272
Not to insert a “culture” issue but girls/women must have the freedom of abortion for calculated scientific evaluations of population to be meaningful.
but beginning to drop only 80 years from now, and after adding another 2.4 billion. If only educating and empowering women had happened a century earlier. (My maternal grandmother actually earned a PhD over a century ago (1915--and both of her daughters also earned them), but she was probably the first woman in Colorado to do so.
David: You are absolutely correct about population growth and its adverse impacts on our efforts to deal with climate change. We can’t house our current population and we will have to resettle millions of our citizens to higher, cooler and wetter (but hopefully not too wet) areas. Population growth in the US has slowed due to the voluntary decisions of millions of couples but our refusal to control our southern border has resulted in the influx of millions of illegal immigrants. How will they be housed in the coming climate crisis? Advocates of population growth have no answers to these questions.
Instead of David’s conclusion of extermination as an option I would strongly recommend studying the figures of Vaclav Smil on the daunting needs to help equally humanity reach decent living standards.
Developing the resources to meet this challenge is the sole meaningful path humanity can now make.
Nazi Germany also realized existing arable lands within its territory were insufficient to sustain its growing population and decided eliminating less desirable and less perfect specimens than its Aryan ideal was an efficient way to ensure only the deserving would survive.
We are at a cross road and can decide the 3 or 4 billion people we will have sacrifice our own comfort to help survive or continue the European Model of resource extraction and ignore the consequences of starvation and disease until we have a balance of survivors and sustainable material resource.
When Bill reaches the terrible conclusion of extinction or action he brings up the possibilities of human magnificence of rising in magnificent response to the ultimate challenges we ever must face.
After the collapse of the western civilized world with the fall of Rome humanity became isolated and enfeebled but still managed to scramble together tenets of faith and mutual support to build some of the most magnificent churches in the world and keep and copy the most treasured written thought of the world.
Our role is to ensure we reach for an demonstrate of our most noble capabilities whatever the end.
Did I use the word "exterminate," or anything synonymous? Did I even imply that? I'm a Jew, lucky enough that no members of my extended family (that I'm aware of) were exterminated by the Nazis, but I'm aware of plenty who were. How dare you put that word in my mouth!
"Instead of David’s conclusion of extermination as an option..." David said nothing of the kind. Hap Klein, please read, think, and then comment...sigh
I found what you said about "where" to live interesting, as I already live in a mountainous area which moderates temperature, has plenty of rainfall (sometimes too much), and a high level of neighborliness, as evidenced in the last year as we dealt with recovery from the same kind of flooding Vermont experienced.
I've been involved in activism and community building work over many years. What I've noticed is that the quiet, slow process of people doing things together doesn't usually make the headlines, but it is constantly going on in the background nonetheless. We've got to maintain and accelerate this work. Inevitably more people will be drawn in as the need to do things together becomes our only choice. This is why I think the idea of living democracy that Australian green thinker Tim Hollo is writing about are worth checking out.
I can't "like" this post because it's too depressing, but thank you for writing about all of this. Rutland just got hit AGAIN with 2" of rain in two hours. They had to use swift boat rescue to get some people out of their homes. One commenter said, "Every rain is a 100 year rain now." Lastly, my jaw is still on the floor after reading this: "Royal Bank of Canada, one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel lenders, is looking for a new Head of Climate Transition. One of their responsibilities will be to “Develop and implement effective and lasting responses to Climate Activism."" We are truly in surreal times. It feels like a mass hypnotism for half the country/world.
Yeah, but most of my direct experience of the mass hypnotism isn't on the fossil fuel production end, but on the use end -- the everyday users. Where I live (Santa Fe, New Mexico) every time I go out into the world (so to speak) I am beset by heavy automobile traffic, usually oversized cars and trucks. Almost no one is walking or bicycling.
Its easy for us to talk about how much we hate the extractors of fossil fuels, but what are we going to do about ordinary people who are paying the extractors to maintain their fossil fuel habits?
Not a very helpful article. Within the United States it seems to me anyplace close to the Great Lakes will benefit from their unlimited supply of fresh, clean water and their buffeting affect on extreme temperatures. The rust belt cities (and their suburbs) of Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo all have these qualities along with very affordable housing prices. In addition their cold winters, long seen as a major disadvantage will moderate.
I live in Minnesota. There are more than 15,000 lakes with a surface size of 10 acres or more; 10 acres is roughly two large city blocks. The Mississippi starts here - third largest river system in the world; largest river system in North America. As you mentioned, we have plenty of shoreline along Lake Superior - largest freshwater lake in the world, and the unseen treasure, trillions of gallons of groundwater in underground cisterns of granitic bedrock. Yes, we have fresh water.
We also are in the midst of severe drought, after experiencing the third wettest winter on record - 90 plus inches of snow, ice and rain. We have had the worst air quality in the world recently - a result of the Canadian wildfire smoke. The heat indexes have been tough as we have heat AND humidity . Though I’m native to this part of the world, I admit to being scared last winter about whether or not I could handle to constant shoveling, de icing and finding ways to walk my 65 lb dog. Then faced the challenges of a thunderstorm down bursts than produced 3 inches of rain in just an hour - the only significant rainfall we have had all summer. The erosion in my yard is off the charts - my neighbors and I have banded together to build wood earthen dams to slow the flow - average age of those of us working on this project is 70!
Freshwater is not the only consideration you should concern yourself with. Though lack of it kills, too much causes untold damage and also kills. And water treatment plants, like the one that abuts my property, are constantly overwhelmed with silt, leaves, road chemicals, lawn chemicals (ugh), and flooding downpours that screws up sewage treatment . Groundwater is poisoned by all the above too. (How many manufacturing facilities along the Great Lakes just dumped their effluent? How much of that poison remains?)
Managing the affects of the climate crisis on freshwater is a giant challenge. Don’t kid yourself that the Great Lakes region is at some kind of advantage just because of water. The real advantage is much more likely what McKibben focused on - community. I know my neighbors. We work together to keep everyone safe. The neighborhood beekeeper has helped convince most to use organic lawn treatments and also used his small truck to plow and remove snow for all of us. My late husband was a shop teacher so I keep the tool lending library here. We have all volunteered for respite care for a neighbor caring for her dying husband (COPD). Within walking distance, there is open land available for garden plots and the community food shelf gladly takes the excess produce. There is much more but you get the idea.
The climate crisis affects everyone everywhere. Climate caused migration will not protect us. Better policies and caring for one another today is the better choice.
Notwithstanding everything that you said I would still pick Minnesota over Florida, Arizona or any number of coastal states as a place to live and I am sticking to suburban Chicago where we have access to two billion gallons per day of pure Lake Michigan water and it is a mild 73 degrees today. Phoenix is going to be 111 for the umpteenth time this summer. We are also a safe 600 feet above sea level. The Great Lakes states are much better positioned to survive climate change than most of the US and people will eventually recognize that simple fact.
Anthony: I was not suggesting there won’t be adverse impacts but merely that an area in the northern half of the country, five to six hundred feet above sea level with a virtually unlimited supply of fresh water appears to be better able to survive those adverse impacts. In fact, your second reference actually strengthens my case.
I hear ya, but as Bill McKibben says, the issue is far more complex than being sufficiently above sea level. I'm in Vermont at 350 feet above sea level. Lake Champlain nearby has plenty of fish. None of that will do me any good if I get flooded out from 3 or four day long rainstorms. No place is safe.
This video by Canadian Climate scientist Paul Beckwith goes into detail:
Planting a trillion trees is a good idea, apart from any positive effect they may have on the climate disaster, particularly if they're diverse and build habitat. But I was reading just this morning that we simply don't produce enough saplings to carry out the project, and those we do produce are mostly of species intended to be logged when they get big enough. Before we start planting, we'd have to spend some time on fixing that.
PS - Immense praise and appreciation to you for allowing comments from non-paying subscribers! Many of us have very little money for subscriptions ... because we're doing the work that needs to happen but which isn't paid work.
Thanks Bill! Ideally, you'd become an official "occasional contributor", which would mean that I may ask this same question again in the future, but not too often to be a bother. By becoming an official contributor, you'll have your own byline at The R-Word, rather than having me fit your name in in the subtitle space. This, of course, is my preference, but it means you'd have to subscribe to The R-Word (free of cost), Then I'd send you an invitation, and then you'd accept and we'd be on our way!
Kudos to you Bill McKibben for another fine article on climate; my two favorite pieces: the rising of the young Gen Z activist to interrupt and speak on behalf of a million protesters not heard! They are young, idealistic, energetic and immortal; they will save this gem of the universe 🌎 if just allowed in the door of change. It is their generation that has the most to gain by ACTION after all. And the reduction in the deforestation of the Amazon by the new leader and his climate designee is miraculous and so welcome.
Thank you for all of this and for the ways you summed up the impacts. I am heavily considering no longer using ChatGPT for the fact that it consumes so much water. I had no idea the ratio was so high. This is important writing, thank you for your work.
Another great article on climate change ruined by veering into another lane with bad "science". There are so many co-factors as to why states faired differently regarding Covid vaccines and illness/death. Age, socio-economic, population density, etc. To suggest that Vermont had a better outcome than other states BECAUSE of the high vaccination rate is just wrong! Many good epidemiologists have discredited this theory. Just like the suggestion that republican states did worse than democratic states. And now, two plus years into vaccines, it's looking worse and worse for the vaccinated vs. the unvaxxed. I'm sure some here will pull up this or that study that show the opposite. But it's confirmation bias. Wanting an outcome to validate your beliefs. Climate deniers do this all the time. By using the same tactics, you turn people away from the climate crisis. Sad!
You're kidding, right? You had to drop some anti-vax rhetoric into a piece on climate disaster? If you don't want the shot, fine. But you're not convincing anyone else.
BTW, here's Bills statement: "Vermonters said that they knew most of their neighbors, compared with twenty-six per cent of Americans in general. Those levels of social trust help explain, I think, why the state had the lowest level of fatalities from covid, much lower than its neighboring states and much lower than other small rural states with similarly homogeneous populations. Everyone wore masks, everyone got vaccinated."
How do you know I'm "not convincing anyone else"? I'm obviously not convincing YOU. And that's OK. Your choice. I love how anyone who disagrees with the Covid "GENE THERAPY" thinks that anyone who didn't get the jab is anti-vaxx. This is sooooo intellectually lazy. And it was Bill who dropped the vaxx debate into the story. Did you not understand my point? He is constantly deriding people who don't agree with him on issues NOT related to climate change which IMO is very unproductive. Many people much smarter then me have written about this. How science has been damaged by all the Covid misinformation which has lead to distrust of science in general. That's the problem. OK?
Nonsense. Directed at your comments about vaccinations, including the comments about Democratic vs GOP states--the latter being evidence for the efficacy of vaccinations, since a lower percentage of Republicans than Democrats got vaccinated.
While I'm a Democrat, I think for myself before accepting the Democratic orthodoxy, and I sometimes don't accept it. For example, near the top here, I have a long comment arguing, among other things, that mass immigration to the US is increasing global warming emissions.
But it's obvious that vaccinations have greatly reduced incidence of COVID-19.
"But it's obvious that vaccinations have greatly reduced incidence of COVID-19." What does that even mean????? It has been proven that the jab DOES NOT prevent transmission. If you still believe that, well then we should stop here. You're brainwashed. So much more to say but it would be a waste of my time.
I agree with this statement 100% especially with your comment on confirmation bias. You're absolutely correct that two years out, "the science" is not looking favorable and we're dealing with side effects of "trusting the science."
I think there needs to be a well thoughtful discussion on both sides of the topic to truly come together on this.
Yes Franklin. The statement "trust the Science" or trust Fauci is anathema to what real science is. Always question. Put forth hypotheses and let them be challenged by others. It's frustrating to see how the process and practice of science has been bastardized and used for political and economic purposes. I'll check out your Substack. Please check out mine https://davids4550.substack.com Thanks.
See David Quammen's typically thorough piece "Point of Origin" about the start of the Covid-19 coronavirus, which is still not known—due in large part to Chinese reticence. (New York Times Magazine, 7.30.23) That it was a catastrophic pandemic is obvious, with millions dead. The science that vaccines and mask wearing produced far lower illness and death counts is indisputable. Sorry, but confirmation bias seems to be your blind spot.
As the planet keeps warming, more pandemics seem inevitable. Stubborn resistance to vaccination by ordinarily reasonable people will only make matters worse.
Show me the PROOF that " The science that vaccines and mask wearing produced far lower illness and death counts is indisputable." It is patently absurd to make such a statement and clearly shows that you are the one practicing confirmation bias my friend. I have spent literally thousands of hours researching this subject with the help of my sister-in-law who has a phd in biology. she helps me with the more technical stuff. The fact that you use the NYT as research tells me a lot. The same NYT that featured Judith Miller and WMD's a few decades ago. They haven't changed a bit. in fact, they've gotten worse. Russiagate etc etc etc. And BTW, my original comment to Bill was that the results of the last three years of horrible covid policy have turned many people who used to believe the science on climate change into disbelievers. A double tragedy. And folks like you are feeding that skepticism. It's really unfortunate.
Why are you asking me Hilary? Why don't you do some research and find out. But I will take a moment to tell you that NO, "the ones dying of Covid these past couple of years almost entirely the unvaxxed?" When you look at the statistics, keep in mind that anyone who dies in less than 30 days AFTER being vaxxed is considered UNVAXXED. So if the jab kills you a week or two after getting it, you're considered unvaxxed. Currently less than one in a hundred thousand are dying from Covid unvaxxed. So when you consider all the side effects of the jab, I'd take my chances. AND.......the majority of those deaths are people over 65. Under 65, you have about a one in 400,000 chance of dying from covid unvaxxed. I like my odds without the jab. But you do what you chose. That's the beauty of freedom. Not Freedumb.
Your comment, “how do I avoid this huge communal disaster” – made me think of a quote, I think it was from the Esoteric Philosophy Manly P Hall state, and I paraphrase, “that ever since humanity moved into cities, it’s become worse for the human condition.” He mentions Rome and how when they went to cities, the pollution increases since you now have to account for all of humanity in one location, i.e., sewers and waste problems.
This makes me think that we should evaluate our cities and begin to explore more open, almost “nomadic” (emphasis on the air quotes) where we can be free and open – eliminating all the pollution that arises when humans and squeezed together in what we call “cities” (which could also be referred to as Mice Utopias)
And where do you propose we put all these billions of city dwellers? We're already in a food crisis bc of the poor management of our farmlands. Putting billions more on our agricultural land would be a disaster. People can and DO live in healthy cities. Not all, not most. But it's possible with good local government.
Agree with everything you said and I think the solution lies in your statement. Before we even evaluate moving billions of city dwellers, lets first: address the poor management of our farmlands. Once we address that, we can look to evaluate this city option.
I don't think you would be in favor of 15-minute cities would you? But just wanted to ask...
I don't see what the problem is with 15 minute cities. I live in a city and drove 4577 miles in my car last year. I can walk to my dentist, my eye doctor and my hairdresser. It keeps me active, moving, and social. Cities can do things with efficiency that small towns can't. Living in a rural area requires a lot more driving.
Yes. Were we live in Boulder Colorado. You can easily bike almost anywhere in town in 15 minutes. We recently bought e-bikes and I do so many more things including grocery shopping with my bike. I'm 65 so it's been a big help. And I charge the battery with solar.
There is an accidental “15” minute city at Patriot’s Point, Mount Pleasant, just over the old Cooper River Bridge in Charleston , SC. I lived there happily with everything I needed without a vehicle of any kind for three years. But I understand the Bridge was deemed unsafe thus replaced in a very complex circuitous way in recent years. And of course the Charleston area no matter how desirable will succumb to the rising tides and hurricanes 🌀 and be lost to the sea no matter the concrete walls or other short term interventions. Just saying, God it was fun and doable.
I live in the far NW corner of the US, a place “better-than-most” to live for the rest of my climate-deranged lifetime. I speak of these crises every day, everywhere, and am on the local Emergency Planning Commission. We are at risk from ocean rise and mountain flooding…our desirable but low-lying ag land is sure to be lost. So even though people would want to relocate here for nicer temps, the localized food system is likely short-term. When the dikes are breached (already happening in bits over the past few years), thousands of acres of prime growing land will be ruined. So no, there is no perfect place…except where we can join in solidarity to figure it out together, combine skills and resources, and live like the communal, cooperative, conscientious beings we can be.
that seems exactly right to me. neighborliness is the best defense--and it's fun anyway
One of my buddies always talks about “good neighbors aiming to be better neighbors.” I like this because as you said, Americans aren’t great at this in our atomized, fast-paced lifestyle—which is not just a symptom but a cause of our predicament—but we can learn, and cultivate the instincts that do still show up in moments of disaster. (I’m glad to have more and more peers who already recognize the crisis and aren’t waiting for even worse to open their eyes and hearts). Thanks as always Bill!
I've been concerned about climate change my whole life (I'm only 39) and have anticipated climate refugees and displacement for awhile. I'm interested though in your Emergency Planning Commission. I live in a small town of 1,000 in Ohio near a river. I'm new here, but I'm slowly learning to be more neighborly, which I enjoy. I'd like to learn how to be of more use during the climate crisis. How does one start or create an Emergency Planning Commission? What do their duties entail?
Hi Garden Muse! I’d be happy ro share more. Would you please Messenger me or find me through my FB page Climate Conversations, Coaching and Action? 🧡
I also live in the the PNW and have been thinking about our food system constantly. I will look at my local Emergency Planning Commission and how to prepare for ocean rise and mountain flooding. I work in eldercare and constantly thinking about how to improve societal connections to get through the end of life process with a group who practices rugged individualism. I appreciate your affirmations of neighborliness. 🙌🏻
Great to meet you! I’m a Hospice volunteer—it’s a natural extension of individual care to planetary care, isn’t it?! I’m in La Conner, WA; where are you Emma?
Hi!! Yes so much so! I just interviewed for a hospice position the other day! I am so happy to meet you. I am in Olympia, WA!
Please messenger me on FB or find me on my FB page Climate Conversations, Coaching and Action. Let’s connect!! ☮️♻️🌍🧡
I am not on facebook but would very much like to connect. I am on Instagram as empathicemma if you are on the platform. Otherwise we could email connect, empathicem@gmail.com.
The news about reduction of deforestation in Brazil is very heartening. And I love the stuff about people helping each other in Vermont (and I'm sure in plenty of places elsewhere). We ARE a social species, and this sort of thing brings out the best in us.
On the other hand, what the hell's the matter with Rishi Sunak?!!
Someone recently dropped a link on one of my comments on a Substack about the climate crisis (might have even been here on this very Substack!). I had commented about moving to Portugal several months ago and the climate and infrastructure related collapse I left behind in Georgia (the state). Their link was to an article I'd already read about how Portugal is set to be the EU nation most deeply impacted by the climate emergency. I think their intent behind dropping the link and their accompanying comment about “out of the frying pan into the fire” to be some sort of a “gotcha Lib” drive by, which is funny because they neither got me, nor am I even remotely a Lib.
For one, I came here with my eyes wide open after careful weighing of the pros and cons of different countries available to me and near-to-longer term projections about specific regions within each country.
But perhaps more importantly, I took culture and levels of collectivist attitudes into consideration, and that's ultimately why I chose the city of Porto, Portugal.
Is it perfect? No, but I never expected anywhere would be. But nearly every day I witness or benefit directly from the collectivist culture of the Portuguese people as a whole. I’ll take facing the climate devastation that's coming surrounded by my new Portuguese comrades, language barriers and all, any day before I’d want to face them in the individualistic and callous culture bred in the U.S., especially in the South. I never feared my neighbors turning on me more than I did in conservative Eastern Washington and Red-ruled Georgia.
I hope you continue to be happy in your new home. I regret you felt the need to leave the USA 🇺🇸 but coming from ALABAMA now in SC, I completely understand the need for community and a peaceful existence. You might read the latest newsletters from Alexander Verbeek “The Planet 🌍 “ as he has just completed a pilgrimage to the Camino de Compostela having begun in Pied de St. Port?, Spain (get those cities’ spelling mixed up) and spent his birthday in Porto, Portugal as I remember. Does the Majestic Cafe sound familiar? Glorious photos if my memory is correct as to locale. Just FYI. Many are looking into emigration but lines are long. You are the first I’ve encountered who acted on the idea and followed through. How tragic that one callous, disgusting individual (and his followers) and climate inattention took you away. We must find our way through the maze to survival here, those of us without means to relocate. Enjoy the beauty you find there for many years. You will be missed!
You are the first person to confirm what I figured would happen (that which I wanted to stay ahead of), that emigration lines are now already getting long. That sends chills. My heart hurts for those who aren't getting out... some because they remain in denial... but especially for those whose circumstances have them trapped. I hope those of you still there band together and support each other through what could come to pass. There are people over here aware of the possible need to aid a future flood of refugees.
Bill, as much as your columns are mostly wise and valuable, you are absolutely wrong about population growth. The United States is the major industrialized nation with the greatest per capita greenhouse emissions. In the last 34 years we've added ~85 million. That's equivalent to four New York States plus South Carolina. Half of that growth has come from immigration. The average immigrant's greenhouse emissions have risen three to four fold after arrival--in large part because so many come from third world countries with low per capita emissions. They want to consume like Americans.
Going forward, the Census Bureau projects 75 million over the next 40 years, of which all but 7 million will be from immigration. Yes, we're telling Americans we need to stanch our emissions, but by adding nearly four New York State populations, our emissions are going to keep rising.
Furthermore, even in the third world, population growth is probably going to necessitate more agriculture, and more sprawl--think of the burgeoning cities in Africa and Asia--and when virgin land is converted to anything, large amounts of carbon that are sequestered in virgin land are released to the atmosphere, as two articles in Science showed in 2008, in research that has not been refuted and is not going to be refuted.
Scientists such as EO Wilson have urged humankind to set aside half of Earth for untrammeled nature. But we already use half the world's habitable land for agriculture. Moreover, climate change is reducing Earth's carrying capacity--it will take more land to produce enough to feed us all. We can't keep growing our population.
In other matters, in the 20th century, when the African population rose from less than 100 million to more than a billion, the population of elephants plummeted from 20 million to 500,000. It's still plummeting. Elephants are important players in the African ecosystem, and they are also among the smartest non-humans, who have a lot to teach us if we listen. Elephants are nicer than primates, and it's a matter of their politics. The oldest female is automatically the leader--none of the back-stabbing that goes on among chimps. When I raised this issue, Jane Goodall agreed with me. (Bonobos are also matriarchal and nicer than we are.)
As elephants go, so go the other African megafauna, and much of the rest of African fauna, and so go African ecosystems.
We are in the midst of the sixth major extinction--the first ever caused by a species (us).
The greatest cause of extinction and reduction in the numbers of other species is habitat destruction.
The human population grew from 2,000,000,000 to 8,000,000,000 during the last century. The best thing we can do for the environment--short of all of us becoming Buddhists and living like it--is to let--or even encourage--the human population drop back down (and doing so in the US would have the biggest bang for the $).
Again, you make a lot of very important points, which I will probably comment on in another comment.
well, since it turned out that educating and empowering women dropped the number of children in the average family dramatically, i think we'll see populations plateau this century and then begin to drop. https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/07/1122272
Not to insert a “culture” issue but girls/women must have the freedom of abortion for calculated scientific evaluations of population to be meaningful.
but beginning to drop only 80 years from now, and after adding another 2.4 billion. If only educating and empowering women had happened a century earlier. (My maternal grandmother actually earned a PhD over a century ago (1915--and both of her daughters also earned them), but she was probably the first woman in Colorado to do so.
David: You are absolutely correct about population growth and its adverse impacts on our efforts to deal with climate change. We can’t house our current population and we will have to resettle millions of our citizens to higher, cooler and wetter (but hopefully not too wet) areas. Population growth in the US has slowed due to the voluntary decisions of millions of couples but our refusal to control our southern border has resulted in the influx of millions of illegal immigrants. How will they be housed in the coming climate crisis? Advocates of population growth have no answers to these questions.
Instead of David’s conclusion of extermination as an option I would strongly recommend studying the figures of Vaclav Smil on the daunting needs to help equally humanity reach decent living standards.
Developing the resources to meet this challenge is the sole meaningful path humanity can now make.
Nazi Germany also realized existing arable lands within its territory were insufficient to sustain its growing population and decided eliminating less desirable and less perfect specimens than its Aryan ideal was an efficient way to ensure only the deserving would survive.
We are at a cross road and can decide the 3 or 4 billion people we will have sacrifice our own comfort to help survive or continue the European Model of resource extraction and ignore the consequences of starvation and disease until we have a balance of survivors and sustainable material resource.
When Bill reaches the terrible conclusion of extinction or action he brings up the possibilities of human magnificence of rising in magnificent response to the ultimate challenges we ever must face.
After the collapse of the western civilized world with the fall of Rome humanity became isolated and enfeebled but still managed to scramble together tenets of faith and mutual support to build some of the most magnificent churches in the world and keep and copy the most treasured written thought of the world.
Our role is to ensure we reach for an demonstrate of our most noble capabilities whatever the end.
Did I use the word "exterminate," or anything synonymous? Did I even imply that? I'm a Jew, lucky enough that no members of my extended family (that I'm aware of) were exterminated by the Nazis, but I'm aware of plenty who were. How dare you put that word in my mouth!
Ignore him if you can; the Holocaust was well known to be a religious genecide having nothing to do with arable land.
What an idiot (evil) he is!
Thank you Judith. You just made it easier.
"Instead of David’s conclusion of extermination as an option..." David said nothing of the kind. Hap Klein, please read, think, and then comment...sigh
I found what you said about "where" to live interesting, as I already live in a mountainous area which moderates temperature, has plenty of rainfall (sometimes too much), and a high level of neighborliness, as evidenced in the last year as we dealt with recovery from the same kind of flooding Vermont experienced.
I'm planning to move back to Arizona next summer. Why on earth? you ask. Arizona is the swingiest of swing states -- I'm going back to vote.
I've been involved in activism and community building work over many years. What I've noticed is that the quiet, slow process of people doing things together doesn't usually make the headlines, but it is constantly going on in the background nonetheless. We've got to maintain and accelerate this work. Inevitably more people will be drawn in as the need to do things together becomes our only choice. This is why I think the idea of living democracy that Australian green thinker Tim Hollo is writing about are worth checking out.
https://www.greeninstitute.org.au/publications/tedx-talk-panarchy/
I can't "like" this post because it's too depressing, but thank you for writing about all of this. Rutland just got hit AGAIN with 2" of rain in two hours. They had to use swift boat rescue to get some people out of their homes. One commenter said, "Every rain is a 100 year rain now." Lastly, my jaw is still on the floor after reading this: "Royal Bank of Canada, one of the world’s biggest fossil fuel lenders, is looking for a new Head of Climate Transition. One of their responsibilities will be to “Develop and implement effective and lasting responses to Climate Activism."" We are truly in surreal times. It feels like a mass hypnotism for half the country/world.
That's a very good way of putting it, and it's hard to tell what will finally break the spell!
Yeah, but most of my direct experience of the mass hypnotism isn't on the fossil fuel production end, but on the use end -- the everyday users. Where I live (Santa Fe, New Mexico) every time I go out into the world (so to speak) I am beset by heavy automobile traffic, usually oversized cars and trucks. Almost no one is walking or bicycling.
Its easy for us to talk about how much we hate the extractors of fossil fuels, but what are we going to do about ordinary people who are paying the extractors to maintain their fossil fuel habits?
My HOA is anti-solar in MI. A neighbor with a great plan for rooftop solar just got denied - ugh! So backwards! What to do?!
Not a very helpful article. Within the United States it seems to me anyplace close to the Great Lakes will benefit from their unlimited supply of fresh, clean water and their buffeting affect on extreme temperatures. The rust belt cities (and their suburbs) of Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo all have these qualities along with very affordable housing prices. In addition their cold winters, long seen as a major disadvantage will moderate.
I live in Minnesota. There are more than 15,000 lakes with a surface size of 10 acres or more; 10 acres is roughly two large city blocks. The Mississippi starts here - third largest river system in the world; largest river system in North America. As you mentioned, we have plenty of shoreline along Lake Superior - largest freshwater lake in the world, and the unseen treasure, trillions of gallons of groundwater in underground cisterns of granitic bedrock. Yes, we have fresh water.
We also are in the midst of severe drought, after experiencing the third wettest winter on record - 90 plus inches of snow, ice and rain. We have had the worst air quality in the world recently - a result of the Canadian wildfire smoke. The heat indexes have been tough as we have heat AND humidity . Though I’m native to this part of the world, I admit to being scared last winter about whether or not I could handle to constant shoveling, de icing and finding ways to walk my 65 lb dog. Then faced the challenges of a thunderstorm down bursts than produced 3 inches of rain in just an hour - the only significant rainfall we have had all summer. The erosion in my yard is off the charts - my neighbors and I have banded together to build wood earthen dams to slow the flow - average age of those of us working on this project is 70!
Freshwater is not the only consideration you should concern yourself with. Though lack of it kills, too much causes untold damage and also kills. And water treatment plants, like the one that abuts my property, are constantly overwhelmed with silt, leaves, road chemicals, lawn chemicals (ugh), and flooding downpours that screws up sewage treatment . Groundwater is poisoned by all the above too. (How many manufacturing facilities along the Great Lakes just dumped their effluent? How much of that poison remains?)
Managing the affects of the climate crisis on freshwater is a giant challenge. Don’t kid yourself that the Great Lakes region is at some kind of advantage just because of water. The real advantage is much more likely what McKibben focused on - community. I know my neighbors. We work together to keep everyone safe. The neighborhood beekeeper has helped convince most to use organic lawn treatments and also used his small truck to plow and remove snow for all of us. My late husband was a shop teacher so I keep the tool lending library here. We have all volunteered for respite care for a neighbor caring for her dying husband (COPD). Within walking distance, there is open land available for garden plots and the community food shelf gladly takes the excess produce. There is much more but you get the idea.
The climate crisis affects everyone everywhere. Climate caused migration will not protect us. Better policies and caring for one another today is the better choice.
Notwithstanding everything that you said I would still pick Minnesota over Florida, Arizona or any number of coastal states as a place to live and I am sticking to suburban Chicago where we have access to two billion gallons per day of pure Lake Michigan water and it is a mild 73 degrees today. Phoenix is going to be 111 for the umpteenth time this summer. We are also a safe 600 feet above sea level. The Great Lakes states are much better positioned to survive climate change than most of the US and people will eventually recognize that simple fact.
Your assumptions about the effects of Catastrophic Climate Change on the Great Lakes region are overly optimistic, to put it mildly.
https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-010823131113.png
How to Survive When, NOT IF, Catastrophic Climate Change Makes Earth's Climate Unsuitable For Humans
https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/catastrophic-climate-change/future-earth/msg602/#msg602
Anthony: I was not suggesting there won’t be adverse impacts but merely that an area in the northern half of the country, five to six hundred feet above sea level with a virtually unlimited supply of fresh water appears to be better able to survive those adverse impacts. In fact, your second reference actually strengthens my case.
I hear ya, but as Bill McKibben says, the issue is far more complex than being sufficiently above sea level. I'm in Vermont at 350 feet above sea level. Lake Champlain nearby has plenty of fish. None of that will do me any good if I get flooded out from 3 or four day long rainstorms. No place is safe.
This video by Canadian Climate scientist Paul Beckwith goes into detail:
https://youtu.be/Ooi-XhJsGVM
Paul Beckwith is an excellent source for reality based information. Being a Canadian, he can relate well to what you can expect.
Planting a trillion trees is a good idea, apart from any positive effect they may have on the climate disaster, particularly if they're diverse and build habitat. But I was reading just this morning that we simply don't produce enough saplings to carry out the project, and those we do produce are mostly of species intended to be logged when they get big enough. Before we start planting, we'd have to spend some time on fixing that.
Bill, may I have your permission to republish this article at The R-Word?
https://rword.substack.com/
PS - Immense praise and appreciation to you for allowing comments from non-paying subscribers! Many of us have very little money for subscriptions ... because we're doing the work that needs to happen but which isn't paid work.
sure
Thanks Bill! Ideally, you'd become an official "occasional contributor", which would mean that I may ask this same question again in the future, but not too often to be a bother. By becoming an official contributor, you'll have your own byline at The R-Word, rather than having me fit your name in in the subtitle space. This, of course, is my preference, but it means you'd have to subscribe to The R-Word (free of cost), Then I'd send you an invitation, and then you'd accept and we'd be on our way!
Kudos to you Bill McKibben for another fine article on climate; my two favorite pieces: the rising of the young Gen Z activist to interrupt and speak on behalf of a million protesters not heard! They are young, idealistic, energetic and immortal; they will save this gem of the universe 🌎 if just allowed in the door of change. It is their generation that has the most to gain by ACTION after all. And the reduction in the deforestation of the Amazon by the new leader and his climate designee is miraculous and so welcome.
Thank you for all of this and for the ways you summed up the impacts. I am heavily considering no longer using ChatGPT for the fact that it consumes so much water. I had no idea the ratio was so high. This is important writing, thank you for your work.
Another great article on climate change ruined by veering into another lane with bad "science". There are so many co-factors as to why states faired differently regarding Covid vaccines and illness/death. Age, socio-economic, population density, etc. To suggest that Vermont had a better outcome than other states BECAUSE of the high vaccination rate is just wrong! Many good epidemiologists have discredited this theory. Just like the suggestion that republican states did worse than democratic states. And now, two plus years into vaccines, it's looking worse and worse for the vaccinated vs. the unvaxxed. I'm sure some here will pull up this or that study that show the opposite. But it's confirmation bias. Wanting an outcome to validate your beliefs. Climate deniers do this all the time. By using the same tactics, you turn people away from the climate crisis. Sad!
You're kidding, right? You had to drop some anti-vax rhetoric into a piece on climate disaster? If you don't want the shot, fine. But you're not convincing anyone else.
BTW, here's Bills statement: "Vermonters said that they knew most of their neighbors, compared with twenty-six per cent of Americans in general. Those levels of social trust help explain, I think, why the state had the lowest level of fatalities from covid, much lower than its neighboring states and much lower than other small rural states with similarly homogeneous populations. Everyone wore masks, everyone got vaccinated."
How do you know I'm "not convincing anyone else"? I'm obviously not convincing YOU. And that's OK. Your choice. I love how anyone who disagrees with the Covid "GENE THERAPY" thinks that anyone who didn't get the jab is anti-vaxx. This is sooooo intellectually lazy. And it was Bill who dropped the vaxx debate into the story. Did you not understand my point? He is constantly deriding people who don't agree with him on issues NOT related to climate change which IMO is very unproductive. Many people much smarter then me have written about this. How science has been damaged by all the Covid misinformation which has lead to distrust of science in general. That's the problem. OK?
BS.
? Explain please. What exactly is BS. My observations or Bills suggestions? Thanks.
Nonsense. Directed at your comments about vaccinations, including the comments about Democratic vs GOP states--the latter being evidence for the efficacy of vaccinations, since a lower percentage of Republicans than Democrats got vaccinated.
While I'm a Democrat, I think for myself before accepting the Democratic orthodoxy, and I sometimes don't accept it. For example, near the top here, I have a long comment arguing, among other things, that mass immigration to the US is increasing global warming emissions.
But it's obvious that vaccinations have greatly reduced incidence of COVID-19.
"But it's obvious that vaccinations have greatly reduced incidence of COVID-19." What does that even mean????? It has been proven that the jab DOES NOT prevent transmission. If you still believe that, well then we should stop here. You're brainwashed. So much more to say but it would be a waste of my time.
The shots don't work perfectly. But if you've had the shots you are much less likely to get COVID than if you haven't had the shots.
As I mentioned before to you, red states--fewer people vaccinated percentagewise--have had more cases percentagewise, than blue states.
I agree with this statement 100% especially with your comment on confirmation bias. You're absolutely correct that two years out, "the science" is not looking favorable and we're dealing with side effects of "trusting the science."
I think there needs to be a well thoughtful discussion on both sides of the topic to truly come together on this.
PS: Interested what you may think on my work on climate change: https://unorthodoxy.substack.com/p/the-hidden-profits-of-climate-change
Yes Franklin. The statement "trust the Science" or trust Fauci is anathema to what real science is. Always question. Put forth hypotheses and let them be challenged by others. It's frustrating to see how the process and practice of science has been bastardized and used for political and economic purposes. I'll check out your Substack. Please check out mine https://davids4550.substack.com Thanks.
See David Quammen's typically thorough piece "Point of Origin" about the start of the Covid-19 coronavirus, which is still not known—due in large part to Chinese reticence. (New York Times Magazine, 7.30.23) That it was a catastrophic pandemic is obvious, with millions dead. The science that vaccines and mask wearing produced far lower illness and death counts is indisputable. Sorry, but confirmation bias seems to be your blind spot.
As the planet keeps warming, more pandemics seem inevitable. Stubborn resistance to vaccination by ordinarily reasonable people will only make matters worse.
Show me the PROOF that " The science that vaccines and mask wearing produced far lower illness and death counts is indisputable." It is patently absurd to make such a statement and clearly shows that you are the one practicing confirmation bias my friend. I have spent literally thousands of hours researching this subject with the help of my sister-in-law who has a phd in biology. she helps me with the more technical stuff. The fact that you use the NYT as research tells me a lot. The same NYT that featured Judith Miller and WMD's a few decades ago. They haven't changed a bit. in fact, they've gotten worse. Russiagate etc etc etc. And BTW, my original comment to Bill was that the results of the last three years of horrible covid policy have turned many people who used to believe the science on climate change into disbelievers. A double tragedy. And folks like you are feeding that skepticism. It's really unfortunate.
Aren’t the ones dying of Covid these past couple of years almost entirely the unvaxxed?
Why are you asking me Hilary? Why don't you do some research and find out. But I will take a moment to tell you that NO, "the ones dying of Covid these past couple of years almost entirely the unvaxxed?" When you look at the statistics, keep in mind that anyone who dies in less than 30 days AFTER being vaxxed is considered UNVAXXED. So if the jab kills you a week or two after getting it, you're considered unvaxxed. Currently less than one in a hundred thousand are dying from Covid unvaxxed. So when you consider all the side effects of the jab, I'd take my chances. AND.......the majority of those deaths are people over 65. Under 65, you have about a one in 400,000 chance of dying from covid unvaxxed. I like my odds without the jab. But you do what you chose. That's the beauty of freedom. Not Freedumb.
Do people ask your opinion of Miyawaki forests? I'm womdering if starting one would be a good intergenerational project for a church.
I'm using miyawaki techniques to plant my hedgerow windbreak! Have you seen the videos the Indian company Afforest have done. Very helpful!
No place is safe …
Your comment, “how do I avoid this huge communal disaster” – made me think of a quote, I think it was from the Esoteric Philosophy Manly P Hall state, and I paraphrase, “that ever since humanity moved into cities, it’s become worse for the human condition.” He mentions Rome and how when they went to cities, the pollution increases since you now have to account for all of humanity in one location, i.e., sewers and waste problems.
This makes me think that we should evaluate our cities and begin to explore more open, almost “nomadic” (emphasis on the air quotes) where we can be free and open – eliminating all the pollution that arises when humans and squeezed together in what we call “cities” (which could also be referred to as Mice Utopias)
And where do you propose we put all these billions of city dwellers? We're already in a food crisis bc of the poor management of our farmlands. Putting billions more on our agricultural land would be a disaster. People can and DO live in healthy cities. Not all, not most. But it's possible with good local government.
Agree with everything you said and I think the solution lies in your statement. Before we even evaluate moving billions of city dwellers, lets first: address the poor management of our farmlands. Once we address that, we can look to evaluate this city option.
I don't think you would be in favor of 15-minute cities would you? But just wanted to ask...
I don't see what the problem is with 15 minute cities. I live in a city and drove 4577 miles in my car last year. I can walk to my dentist, my eye doctor and my hairdresser. It keeps me active, moving, and social. Cities can do things with efficiency that small towns can't. Living in a rural area requires a lot more driving.
Yes. Were we live in Boulder Colorado. You can easily bike almost anywhere in town in 15 minutes. We recently bought e-bikes and I do so many more things including grocery shopping with my bike. I'm 65 so it's been a big help. And I charge the battery with solar.
There is an accidental “15” minute city at Patriot’s Point, Mount Pleasant, just over the old Cooper River Bridge in Charleston , SC. I lived there happily with everything I needed without a vehicle of any kind for three years. But I understand the Bridge was deemed unsafe thus replaced in a very complex circuitous way in recent years. And of course the Charleston area no matter how desirable will succumb to the rising tides and hurricanes 🌀 and be lost to the sea no matter the concrete walls or other short term interventions. Just saying, God it was fun and doable.
Perhaps “was” is more accurate.